See You in Beantown or at Reliant: Texans 20 Ravens 19

Your offensive breakdown was really nice. I thought I would add some of the other side of the ball

The Balitmore game was also the first game Mario was sidelined. Brooks Reed, and Conner Barwin had just moved into their new spots and had not grown accustomed yet. With two players being out of postion, they were still able to sack Flacco 5 times, and countless pressures. Expect the same amount of pressure, and turnovers will come. When the Ravens have costly turnovers it is Flacco who coughs it up, in compared to Rice who is quite sure with the ball.

While getting Boldin back will a big relief for Flacco, he should not be 100% game ready, and I would not expect the same effort produced from earlier in the season, likely the Ravens will attempt to keep Houston in the Dime/Nickel packages to keep KJ, or the CB3 in the game. This opens up opportunities for the D-line to get their hands on balls, and perhaps another Tip Drill INT.

I expect the Texans new to this defense this year to contribute huge. Manning, Joseph, Watt, and Reed will need to have an impact to keep Ray Rice contained. With not only the running game ,but also the screens and flat passes where he can be dangerous as well.

But the Number one Key for the Defense to hold to this week, would be to limit any big plays. Keep the number of plays that go 20+ yards to a minimium and you will have a chance to pull the upset all Houston is Hoping for.

Texans 20 Ravens 13

Hate to say it, but my WAG is that Ravens have a 60% chance of winning this. I think the Ravens can keep our offense in check, and wear down the defense. In order to win, I think we need the long passing game to be on point. And I’m not sure Yates has the necessary accuracy.

If it is a slugfest, expect a lot of three and outs.

The good news is that if we win, I think either the Pats or Broncos are favorable matchups for us

I haven’t noticed you posting around here. I will say that a lot of people post fan posts mainly to try to get attention or pass themselves off as experts when they are not.

But you sir, deserve a million rec’s for this post. If this does not get promoted to the front page for your informed, reasonable and not over the top overview of this matchup I will be very surprised.

Well done. Rec’d and GO TEXANS!

Don’t turn it over and we have a legitimate chance to win the game. Give the ball up and we will be playing catch up. It was the deciding factor against the Bengals, and it will be again in this game.

I couldn’t agree more. The Texans don’t need to put on an offensive show to pull off the upset, which would be a tall task, no doubt. They need to protect the football and win the field position game, and Rackers needs to hit his tries.

Regular Season Ranking in NFL (NFL.com):

Rushing Defense: Ravens #2, Texans #4
Passing Defense: Texans #3, Ravens #4
Scoring Allowed: Ravens #3, Texans #4
Yards Allowed: Texans #2, Ravens #3
Overall Defense: Texans #2, Ravens #3

Rushing Offense: Texans #2, Ravens #10
Passing Offense: Texans #18, Ravens #19
Overall Offense: Texans #13, #15

Key Statistics (NFL.com):

Props to you, MeMongo, for posting those stats. Man, remember back when David Carr was quarterback and opponents had 33 sacks before October? lol

/I feel like I underdressed

I’m not saying that Yates will light up the Baltimore secondary.

This seems like the prevailing opinion. I don’t think there’s any evidence that backs this up. He doesn’t throw a lot, by design. If we need a win, he does, and he does it well. See the Falcons, @Cincy, and last Saturday.

How many times did he throw against Indy? Because of the stripsack on the first dropback, the non-importance of the game, and the fact that we needed to keep him upright. He was 4-4 on his only drive in week 17. So I’m confused as to where the evidence is that says he can’t throw a lot and throw us to a win.

But I think we need to prepare for the off chance that everyone is right. What happens if we can’t run the ball in the first half, and are down two scores. I think TJ can pass the ball effectively in this situation. I wouldn’t like our chances down two TDs at the half, but I wouldn’t count us out if we have to pass just because TJ has not been asked to pass the ball a lot so far.

First of all I’d like to state that this piece is very well written. I enjoyed it, though I did not agree with it. Channeling my inner Jules Winfield, “Well, allow me to retort. What does Marcellus Wallace look like?”

The rookie-quarterback-fifth-rounder-going-on-the-road-card will inevitably be played…

And rightfully so. Name me one rookie quarterback who has won in Baltimore this decade.

…followed by heaping reminders of Houston’s previous two losses against the Ravens.

I’d disregard last season since we both had very different teams at that time. But the week 6 loss is a little more relevant here.

Its being assumed that Ray Rice will trot along for well over 100 yards, while decent but unstarlike quarterback Joe Flacco will effortlessly toss in 300, and Ed Reed will have his way with T.J. Yates’ middle to deep range throws.

Rice? He did run for 101 yards in the previous matchup. I’m not going to say “well over” 100 yards, but he will get his yards by either reception or handoff. The man had over 2000 yards from scrimmage this season, and he did it against pretty stiff competition. To a certain degree, you can attempt to limit Rice, but a certain amount of production is inevitable.

Flacco? Not a world-beater, but again, he did throw for 305 yards last time. I’ve heard a lot of “week 6 doesn’t matter anymore” from Texans fans, but unfortunately it does. We thought the regular season didn’t matter against the Steelers in 2008 too. It’s natural. And Flacco does considerably better against 34 defenses, probably due in large part to his familiarity with the Steelers.

Reed? Meh. He has clearly been nursing injuries this season and hasn’t been as much of a threat as in years past. CB Lardarius Webb notched 5 INTs and hasn’t allowed a TD all season. He’s our best ball hawk at the moment, and he’ll draw Dre (with a safety above him of course). It isn’t as much about us shutting down Dre as it is us shutting down Yates, who faces a defense that averages over 4 sacks per game at home (33 at home on the season).

To begin, I think its tough for any NFL team to beat another three times in two years, especially a good team like Houston.

Again, we said the same thing about the Steelers. They three-peated us in 2008, and we were pretty damn good that year. The whole “rookie QB versus elite defense” thing came into play big time.

Last year’s Monday Night matchup saw the Texans rally fiercely against the Ravens’ vaunted defense, shredding it in the second half until finally yielding in overtime.

That was a Ravens defense incredibly thin at corner and with an utter lack for a pass rush, let alone a pass rush that met Ravens’ standards. Moreover, Schaub pulled that comeback, not Yates.

As per week 6 of 2011:

Houston led 14-13 in the third quarter of that game and routinely marched into Ravens territory only to come up empty-handed all but twice.

I hope you’re not expecting to recover another fumble in the end zone. Also, it bears mentioning that we too routinely marched into your territory (as evidenced by Flacco’s 305 yards and Rice’s 101 yards) for 5 Billy Cundiff field goals. You held us to field goals, we held you without scoring. Yes, you were missing Dre and now you have him back. Throw in a Dre TD in that game and you still lose 29-21.

Sure, the Ravens ended up winning that game at home 29-14, but the score is not indicative of not only how closer that game should’ve been…

…again, you recovered your own fumble in the end zone. I’m going to go ahead and say the score was closer than it should have been. But let’s agree to disagree and just accept the fact that the final score was 29-14. A lot of losses have been said to have been closer than they appeared, but they remain losses.

Clearly Flacco is a more proven, successful quarterback than Yates, but in looking at the numbers, its not the blowout one might imagine. Since Yates’ relative inexperience will again represent a focal topic and principal argument against the Texans’ chances of winning, here’s a look at some stats:

I won’t blockquote the spread sheet, but I will point out that you gave Yates 4 TD when according to ESPN.com he only has 3. So his TD-INT ratio is 1:1 (not good).

Now, if Yates were coming into this game with only a couple of dozen live game passes under his belt, I’d say the Texans were in big trouble. But he has 132 attempts, has made a few proverbial rookie mistakes, and now has 6.5 NFL games under his belt and has proved that he can handle big game pressure situations.

I think this is a real stretch. If Yates had more games under his belt, even if they were bad games, I’d say that can only help the guy. 6.5 games is absolutely nothing in this league. As for pressure situations, he handled himself well at home against a team that hadn’t beaten any good teams all year long, and at no point was he asked to march the Texans down the field and be the difference maker. At some point on Sunday, I believe he will be required to do that and the odds of him accomplishing it are just not good.

…Yates has plenty of veterans to work with.

I’ll save quoting the whole paragraph but yes, I will grant you that Yates has found himself in a very QB-friendly situation. I respect your O-Line and your offensive skill players quite a bit, and I’m not taking it for granted that we hold Foster to 49 yards like we did last time.

But what I see as the deciding factor in a game where running games and defenses are of comparable productivity is QB play. A rookie in his first ever playoff road game against a team undefeated at home, averaging over 4 sacks per game at home, where their QB plays considerably better at home, and in a stadium that is the loudest on the eastern seaboard and one of the most hostile environments in the NFL… these factors are too much.

For the parts of the piece I did not respond to, take that to mean that I concede the point. Sorry for the long-windedness. Come on over to Baltimore Beatdown when you get a chance.

“….what does Marcellus Wallace look like?”

a well deserved rec!