Why not trade Tate/TJ?

by Gayang3 on Feb 10, 2012 6:55 PM CST

I was reading some thing somewhere about Yates and Tate and for a while it got me thinking. Barring a real big regression in teh Schaub we are set at the QB position for the next 3, 4 years. If we can get Arian signed up for a long term deal we also have a proven first choice RB. Right now our immediate requirement(something that will make the team better from day 1) is at WR, NT, OLB depth and another lock down CB to play opposite JJ.

What if we trade Yates and Tate, get some picks for that(~~lets say 1 first rounder and 2 second rounders~~ ok let's say 2 second rounders), trade those picks and the picks we have so that we end up with 2 high first rounders and 1 second rounder and go up and pick up a couple of good WRs(round 1 and 2) a NT (in round 1) and a backup RB in round 3 (I am sure with our ZB schemes a 3rd rounder will be able to get some good production).

We will immediately improve the team from day 1 of 2012. We will have a backup QB in Leiniart, a backup RB in the new guy we pick, 2 first round WRs to learn from and eventually replace AJ and a solid NT to make the defense better.

Do you think it's a good plan? How much value do you think we can get from TJ and Tate? What do you guys think?

Tweet Comment 31 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

What if we trade Yates and Tate, get some picks for that(lets say 1 first rounder and 2 second rounders)

I think you’ve drastically overstated the value of those two. I like what Yates did for us, but he was still a below-average QB for about six of his eight starts. We lost to some bad teams, our offense struggled to put points on the board, and we ultimately lost a playoff game almost entirely on bad QB play.

He has room to improve, but he was a fifth-rounder for a reason. I think you’d be lucky to get a 3rd for him. And Tate is solid, but RB isn’t a particularly sought-after position. I’m not sure the return on him would even be equal to the draft pick we originally spent.

by Nashmeister on Feb 10, 2012 7:01 PM CST reply actions

Proven goods are always better than unproven ones.

I agree that Yates did have a few WTH games. But then again I don’t think he had the full playbook or all the weapons of the regular offense and the coaches were playing quite conservative (at least in the 3 games at the end of the regular season). If we assume we had all our weapons and played all out in those 3 games and won 2 of them we are talking about a 4-3 QB. Given a full off season he can only get better.
So a team who is thinking about spending a mid 1st rounder on an unproven QB ( at this point apart from Luck and RGIII everyone else is a big risk, even Luck and RGIII are risks, but at least they are somewhat justifiable risks) will rather trade that pick for Yates for at least a proven QB (see Blaine Blaine Gabbart for spending 1st round picks and not getting value).

And the same goes with Tate, though I tend to agree with your point that RB is not a high value position, so lets say we only get a 2nd rounder for him. So we end with 1st rounder and 1 second rounder.

by Gayang3 on Feb 10, 2012 7:25 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Still not gonna get a first-rounder for Yates...

Teams drafting QBs in the first are usually looking for high upside. Every QB that has recently been traded has either been a better prospect coming out of college, or has proved more at the NFL level. Cassel had a statistically strong season en route to an 11-5 record with the Pats. Schaub and Kolb were both higher draft picks, more seasoned, and showed the ability to carry a team offensively through the air.

Yates has shown us an ability to hand the ball off to Foster and lean on a great defense. He played better than expected as a rookie, but his ceiling still isn’t all that high. Don’t get me wrong, I love the guy as a backup here in Houston. But I just don’t see much potential for him to succeed in any system that relies on their QB to move the chains.

by Nashmeister on Feb 10, 2012 7:59 PM CST up reply actions

hmmmmm

OK, lets say you are correct, so what do you think is a fair trade value for yates?

by Gayang3 on Feb 10, 2012 9:16 PM CST up reply actions

4th rounder

by BC5 on Feb 10, 2012 9:28 PM CST up reply actions

3rd round at best, & that's probably only to a WCO team

Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."

by The Night Owl on Feb 11, 2012 12:51 AM CST up reply actions

Al Davis is dead, dude...

RIP

by The Arian Race on Feb 11, 2012 3:57 AM CST up reply actions

pushing up daisies....

"All our lives we're taught to get in line. The ones who conform never discover." - Undrafted Free Agent and NFL Rushing Leader Arian Foster

by Rip Jersey on Feb 14, 2012 10:48 AM CST up reply actions

Schaub was a late 3rd-round pick. Weejay was a 5th-rounder.

Is the difference really that significant?

Houston Texans: 1 Playoff Win.
Vince Young, Dunta Robinson, and Jason Babin: 0 Combined Playoff Wins.

by T-Moar on Feb 12, 2012 1:23 PM CST up reply actions

Schaub was a second wasn't he?

by BC5 on Feb 12, 2012 2:37 PM CST up reply actions

No, Schaub was originally a 3rd round pick

Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."

by The Night Owl on Feb 12, 2012 4:32 PM CST up reply actions

Interesting that Schaub is brought up

We gave Atlanta 2 second rounds and also traded from 8 to 10 for Schaub. And at that point in time Schaub had about 180 pass attempts, about 80 completions and a completion rate of about 50%.

TJ now has 134/82/62% and almost identical ypa to what Schaub had at that time.

And in 3 years Schaub had started 3 games as opposed to TJs 6.

So why is it unreasonable to expect to get a similar deal for TJ?

by Gayang3 on Feb 13, 2012 8:35 AM CST up reply actions

Because they'll say he's a product of the system

See Matt Cassell

Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."

by The Night Owl on Feb 13, 2012 12:11 PM CST up reply actions

"lets say 1 first rounder and 2 second rounders"

You’ll never get that much for these two. You might get a second-rounder for Tate, but that’s the high limit.

"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus

by FreedomRide on Feb 10, 2012 7:12 PM CST reply actions

Read above

well here you go

“We gave Atlanta 2 second rounds and also traded from 8 to 10 for Schaub. And at that point in time Schaub had about 180 pass attempts, about 80 completions and a completion rate of about 50%.
TJ now has 134/82/62% and almost identical ypa to what Schaub had at that time.
And in 3 years Schaub had started 3 games as opposed to TJs 6.
So why is it unreasonable to expect to get a similar deal for TJ?”

by Gayang3 on Feb 13, 2012 8:43 AM CST up reply actions

I could see a team offering that for Yates.

I don’t see the Texans taking it, though.

I get the strong impression Kubiak thinks Yates is a future starter, and he also knows Schaub often can’t manage to play a full season. He may find out if TJ can be the man sooner than he would prefer—like this year. No way he trades the guy he may need as a starter in 2012 for a couple of draft picks.

"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus

by FreedomRide on Feb 13, 2012 11:14 AM CST up reply actions

^THIS^

I’m lost as to the TJ bashing. Maybe I watched different games than everyone else, but I’ll guarantee you just any old scrub could not come in and win a playoff game. Much less win the first game against Cincy in the fashion TJ did.

Just my $.02
Even duct tape can't fix stupid

by txknight on Feb 16, 2012 7:22 PM CST up reply actions

We needed both of these guys due to injury, and we saw first hand how important depth is for survival of a season

They are worth more here, than what we’d get in trade.

by MeMongo on Feb 11, 2012 2:42 AM CST reply actions

well that's a good point

But in my “idea”, we keep Leiniart and draft a new RB in the 4,5th rounds. So we will have some depth. But I agree that Foster and Tate sounds much better than Foster and an unknown.

But at the same time we run a ZBS, and Denver (and even we in the past seasons) have shown that we can plug in any RB and still get a 1000 yard season, so even a new unknown 4,5th round RB will do quite nicely in our system me thinks.

by Gayang3 on Feb 13, 2012 8:46 AM CST up reply actions

Trading proven backups for draft picks we don't even need?

No thanks.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Feb 11, 2012 8:21 AM CST reply actions 1 recs

this

they are cheap, known, and good at their respective positions.

Must. keep.

TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.

by texanphil on Feb 12, 2012 10:05 AM CST up reply actions

Ignoring the ASSumption that they would pull 2nd rounders

I would think that the injuries we saw in 2011 are a pretty compelling damn reason to not trade away talented players currently slotted as the primary backups in key positions.

But that’s just me, using logic and shit.

If the Treasury Secretary doesn't have to pay taxes, then why do I?

by Shake on Feb 11, 2012 9:04 AM CST reply actions 1 recs

sorry guys but i think he thought this was a madden board.

- Feeling the five stages of grief since 2002.

"It's either gonna make you a man or a coward. One of the two. I'm a be a man. I ain't never seen a coward, heard a coward, coward not in ma
vocabulary." - Lawrence Vickers

"I believe in this "zombie team that won’t fucking die no matter how many body parts you shoot off." We can win this game.

by NoSafetiesNeeded on Feb 11, 2012 10:16 AM CST reply actions 4 recs

Oh no, even Kubiak did it

Even we gave 2 second rounders and swapped 1st round picks for a backup QB from Atlanta who at that time had started only 3 games, thrown about the same amount that TJ had and completed less than what TJ had done so far. So don’t think that this is all fiction.

by Gayang3 on Feb 13, 2012 9:03 AM CST up reply actions

Schaub was in his 3rd year when we traded for him

Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."

by The Night Owl on Feb 13, 2012 12:12 PM CST up reply actions

No

Yates is only worth a 4th, possibly 3rd round pick if were lucky. Id much rather hold on to him than sell him for a 4th round pick. Tate is worth a 3rd probably, but we spent a 2nd on him, and Foster’s hamstring injuries might come back and the 2-back punch has worked very well.

Tajh Boyd and Dre' Ellington are the future.
Brandon Jennings; Just keep waiting people.

by BlackPack-fan on Feb 11, 2012 2:53 PM CST reply actions

Like everyone else has said...

You’ve overvalued what both would fetch in a trade and undervalued the importance of a back-up quarterback and second quality back in a league geared towards multiple backs.

"Lord, beer me strength."

by TexansDC on Feb 11, 2012 7:38 PM CST reply actions

and overvalued

what those draft picks would do to the team this year vs. these two players.

TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.

by texanphil on Feb 12, 2012 10:07 AM CST up reply actions

I don't think you actually read what I said

I am not saying that we should just trade these 2 guys, and then get a bunch of new players. What I said was that we should trade TJ/Tate, get a couple of 2nd rounders (or more, that’s possible), then trade those new picks and the current picks we have, so we end up with 2 first round picks (middle of the pack) and 3,4,5th round picks.

So we get Tamu and Floyd or who ever who is the best at the position we are drafting for. A good NT and a WR can create an instant impact on the team.

by Gayang3 on Feb 13, 2012 9:15 AM CST up reply actions

I was against taking a QB last year

but look how that turned out. Our QB3 was a pick that saved our season, and even got us a playoff win. He may be our QB2 going into the season.

Tate was the backup to potentially the best RB in the league, and almost got 1000 yards.

These two players are not unknown draft picks, they both played a big part in last years success, and should contribute this year (hopefully very little in Yates’ case).

Their price/performance is off the charts in the Texans favor for retaining them.

then trade those new picks and the current picks we have, so we end up with 2 first round picks (middle of the pack) and 3,4,5th round picks.

It is a lot to give up, both financially and for the future of the team, to lose both of those players and move up from a 2nd to an additional first.

So I stand by my assessment that you overvalue what draft picks (your new found first rounder vs. our current 2nd rounder) will contribute compared to TJ and Tate. I’d take the latter every day of the week.

TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.

by texanphil on Feb 13, 2012 1:48 PM CST up reply actions