Is Franchising Arian Foster The Smart Move For The Texans?
I haven't given much thought to the notion of your Houston Texans applying the franchise tag to Arian Foster, probably because I've long believed the team will come to terms on a long-term deal with Foster. Arian is a restricted free agent, which means another team could sign him to an offer sheet if the Texans and Foster haven't agreed to a new contract by the time free agency opens. In such a scenario, the Texans would have the right to match the offer. If they matched, Arian would stay in Houston. If they didn't match, the team that signed Foster would send a first-round pick to the Texans as compensation for procuring the services of the best running back in the NFL.
A first-round pick is nice and all, but it's no guarantee that the player selected with that pick will ever approach the value of Arian Foster to the Texans in 2012. Even the biggest Ben Tate fan among us would not suggest that Tate has shown he's as productive and multi-dimensional as Arian Foster is. Foster is a huge reason--not the only reason by any stretch of the imagination, but a very big reason--that the Texans' offense works as well as it does. They cannot let him walk, even if it meant an extra first-round pick.
The Texans also can't (well, shouldn't, anyway) pay him Adrian Peterson/CJ2.0YPC money. If that's the kind of contract Arian Foster wants (and it's not like he'd be out of line to believe he's worth that kind of money), I don't think the Texans are going to be the team to give it. We've talked about all the reasons before (e.g., too many other deals that need to get done, the relatively short shelf life of running backs in today's NFL, etc.). So if the Texans and Foster can't come to terms on a contract, yet they don't want to lose his services in 2012, there's really only one smart move to make for the organization.
On my drive home yesterday, I was listening to Charlie Pallilo on 790, and he mentioned the possibility of the Texans using the franchise tag on Arian Foster. As I said at the outset, it wasn't something I'd really thought about before. Pallilo's logic was sound. If the Texans don't tag Foster, a team with a need and plenty of cap room (Pallilo mentioned Cincinnati as an example) could sign Foster to a ridiculous deal that the Texans could not match without committing financial seppuku. Said team would gladly send its first-round pick Houston's way, because, hey, they just used that first-round pick to acquire Arian Freaking Foster. Talk about a productive draft.
Pallilo was adamant that he thought the Texans would, and should, apply the franchise tag to Arian Foster. The more I think about it, the more I agree. If the Texans and Foster have not agreed to a new contract by March 13th, the Texans should tag their starting RB. Foster may not like it, but it's the smart move for a team that cannot afford to let him get away before what could be a very special season.
Your thoughts?
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He doesnt seem to be money grubbing.
He also does seem genuine about staying with the Texans. I hope he gets his worth, nothing more nothing less.
by EastonFection on Feb 16, 2012 10:53 AM CST via mobile reply actions
It may be just me
But he seems more genuine in wanting to stay than, say, Mario. I hope we can get a deal worked out for him. In an ideal world, he wouldn’t be franchised, and I wouldn’t question his effort in the 2012 season in case he was, but it sure would feel nice to have the NFL’s best RB on lock for 4-5 years.
by brightshinies on Feb 16, 2012 12:06 PM CST up reply actions
I completely agree
He has been very vocal about loving it here and wanting to stay here. Mario, not so much. I still don’t want him to leave, and if he does I don’t want him to leave unless we franchise, trade and get picks.
by EastonFection on Feb 16, 2012 12:37 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
wouldn't trading a player
that just got tagged count for a HUGE loss on our cap space anyway?
by JJ What? on Feb 17, 2012 11:28 AM CST via Android app up reply actions
Meaning...
We have a lot of cap space?
by EastonFection on Feb 17, 2012 3:52 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Can we face the facts?
Mario is not coming back.
"All our lives we're taught to get in line. The ones who conform never discover." - Undrafted Free Agent and NFL Rushing Leader Arian Foster
I faced the facts about Mario a long time ago
I’m very far from hopeful.
by brightshinies on Feb 16, 2012 2:13 PM CST up reply actions
Hope for the best...
…and expect the worst. That’s how that goes, right?
by EastonFection on Feb 16, 2012 3:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Yep
Looking far more likely than anything else. Especially after considering that he’s not a native, didn’t like all the negative talk about being the 1st overall pick, hasn’t publicly stated that he loves it here, and knows he can get crazy money elsewhere, probably where he’ll feel he’s more wanted. I’m starting to feel more at peace with this and am looking forward to Brooks Reed stepping it up even more in 2012, along signing all the other important pieces we need to sign.
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
i have a little hope
Mario has mentioned that he does want to stay in Houston A. because its home to him and B. every player wants to play for a team that fits and has a winning attitude (thats us). He also said the money isn’t what matters most to him. THERES HOPE! (maybe)
by mayhemlikebush on Feb 16, 2012 5:40 PM CST up reply actions
You were saying?
For instance, is it Williams’ first choice to be in Houston?
"Well, you know, I mean, I love it here," he said.
I have not yet begun to defile myself.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC
Yeah, "home town discount" generally has little to do with the town of the player's birth,
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
In all fairness though
Would you expect him to say “Na I really don’t want to be here, it sucks.” I hope his words are sincere, but the cynic in me feels he is just being politically correct.
"Never underestimate the dumb with JJ" - Hugh Jarce
If he didn't mean it, he wouldn't have said anything, probably.
Former Thane of Glamis and Cawdor.
Despite my better judgment, a manager at Battle Red Blog.
Supreme Galactic Editor of Battle Red Onion.
I am a visionary, I am a genius, and now I am angry! Now where are those pants at?!
by UprootedTexan on Feb 16, 2012 8:57 PM CST up reply actions
I DON' WANNA FACE THE FACTS!
sniffle
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
We could get us another safety and maybe a WR for the price we’d pay for him. I don’t know about you guys but I would rather see him go.
by CJ3m on Feb 16, 2012 10:42 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
Monster DE/LBs of his size and ability are much harder to come by
I’d rather stick with a proven commodity that fits pretty well in our system
by brightshinies on Feb 17, 2012 1:00 AM CST up reply actions
You are looking at it in a reasonable way
Mario = Commodity
1 Monster DE/LB = 1 S + 1 WR
Or, are we all supposed to be human about this and be surprised and sad when Mario takes the big contract and goes elsewhere?
"All our lives we're taught to get in line. The ones who conform never discover." - Undrafted Free Agent and NFL Rushing Leader Arian Foster
I'm 99% sure this is going to happen
There are too many teams way under cap who could use his services and I’m not seeing any potential scenario in which we could compete with them. We’re all just talking hypothetically here anyway. Not being human about it makes it sting less.
by brightshinies on Feb 22, 2012 12:18 PM CST up reply actions
Proven to get hurt season after season?
by CJ3m on Feb 17, 2012 2:13 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
Proven to be a disruptive force when he can stay healthy
You have a point, highlighting his injury history. I’m just not ready to give up on the guy so fast if we can find a way to bring him back, which I realize is highly unlikely. But we’re all talking hypothetical here anyway.
by brightshinies on Feb 22, 2012 12:15 PM CST up reply actions
Good article.
Would it be possible to franchise him, make the rest of your free agent roster moves, sign your draft picks, and then before the start of the season start renegotiating contracts to free up cap space for 2013, and then sign him to a long-term deal mid-season once the cap is a little more clear? If we all assume that several people are gone and off the books (Delhomme, Garcia, Leinart, Jakespeare -pleasepleaseplease-, Walter and Demeco get restructured, etc.), assuming it doesn’t violate any rules about negotiating with a franchised player?
What about franchising Meyers? Would the numbers be more favorable franchising the center versus averaging top 5 for a running back franchised after CJ2YPC and AP’s deals? I really should do more research before I post but, meh.
Something clever and witty until I think of something awesome.
pleasepleaseplease
…was not meant to be struckthrough.
Something clever and witty until I think of something awesome.
by texpatriateCO on Feb 16, 2012 11:09 AM CST up reply actions
franchising meyers
would be the average of the top paid lineman, not just centers. He’d get roughly 10 mil next year under the tag. ouch. dont think thats a possiblity
@THEREALALLENOU on twitter - "The man, the verb, the legend" OU'd
The offensive lineman franchise rules are a bit strange.
The various positions aren’t separated, so you’d be paying him tackle and guard money (likely to be about twice his annual salary).
It’s an interesting thought about Foster, though. If you’re absolutely sure you’re going to negotiate a new deal, it might be worthwhile just to keep other teams from bidding. But if you don’t come to terms, it’s going to hurt you in 2012 to the point that you might lose a Dreessen or Brisiel. Personally, I’d leave him tendered while working something out. He’s a big priority, but a first-rounder is solid compensation.
by Nashmeister on Feb 16, 2012 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
"... a first-rounder is solid compensation."
For a Pro Bowl RB who was our playoff MVP, and who’s also a great receiver and dependable blocker, and who’s only 25?
Absolutely not.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
by FreedomRide on Feb 16, 2012 11:56 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Second this
I don’t understand how a draft pick, even a first rounder, is compensation for a known pro bowler. EVERY draft pick carries a bust possibility with it, so there is a very real possibility we could end up with a special teams player at best for one of our best players. That is not even factoring in that Arian is arguably the best at his position in the NFL.
"Never underestimate the dumb with JJ" - Hugh Jarce
Because that Pro Bowler is a running back
Running backs have a short shelf life (22-30) and there’s numerous examples of 1,000 yard rushers that can be found in round 1 through 7 and the undrafted bin. Let’s also remember how the NFL is a passing league now, the premium is on QBs and blind side protectors. This causes the position to be devalued across the league since it’s so easy to find a running back.
"Lord, beer me strength."
An example...
In the past, you’d find multiple backs to take in round 1….today? There’s only 1 legitimate 1st round prospect.
"Lord, beer me strength."
I agree it is easy to find "a" running back
But it is not easy to find another Foster. Tate is a solid running back that could get us 1,000 yards in a season easily I am sure, but he is not in Foster’s league either. Foster has game changing ability that I have not seen in Tate. The playoffs solidified this even more in my mind. I understand saying “well at least we get a 1st rounder to soften the blow”, but I don’t understand " ehh who cares if he leaves we get a 1st rounder."
"Never underestimate the dumb with JJ" - Hugh Jarce
Because...
I wouldn’t have to pay Arian $8M+ per season, would have Tate running for 1,000+ on peanuts, and could find a back-up for cheap.
I’d then get a first rounder who could, conceivably, contribute as a starter to this franchise for 10-15 years as opposed to a running back who may be useless in 4 years. To be able to have 3 picks in the 1st 2 rounds would be huge because that’s WR, NT, and either a OLB/WR again/OL. You fill more holes.
As a long-term franchise decision, there’s a lot of benefit and that’s why I’d be okay if some team broke the bank on a tender.
"Lord, beer me strength."
I don't want them to break the bank either
And it is quite possible I am acting out of my man-love for Foster rather than logic. But there is no way I would be ok with a 1st rounder for Foster. I understand this might end up being our only option, but I don’t think I could ever convince myself that a 1st round pick would be fair compensation for him.
"Never underestimate the dumb with JJ" - Hugh Jarce
I agree
Nowadays also most (not all) skills guys are prima-donas. Arian isn’t. He’s a battle proven asset, he has class/character, good work ethic, and something I think is often overlooked, a sense of humor (see MRI). Which is pretty important in that business. It keeps you sane much like it does in medicine. We have all that in leading running back NOW. Sorry folks, but that’s not a bet I’m willing to make on a first rounder who KNOWS he’s going in the first and will most likely have trouble getting his head in the cargo entrance of reliant. But that’s just me
My drinking team has a football problem.
by DTango on Feb 16, 2012 7:23 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I don't WANT to agree with you
but this is very true. Running backs are a “dime a dozen” as much as it pains me to say, but I think Arian is worth securing and paying for the large portion of his prime.
Because it's not just Arian Foster for a first-round pick.
The only way they let him go is if somebody makes him an offer we can’t match. It then becomes Arian Foster for a first-round draft pick (with the new rookie wage scale) and $6-8 million per year in cap space. Or if you want to convert that cap space to our 2012 free agency plans, it might very well be Arian Foster and Joel Dreessen for Mario Williams and a first-round pick.
I’d match any reasonable offer in a heartbeat. But if the price is too high, you take that cap room and first-rounder and get somebody else in free agency.
by Nashmeister on Feb 16, 2012 1:27 PM CST up reply actions 8 recs
I completely agree not paying him crazy funds just to keep him
But I also don’t like the mentality of “if he leaves we get a 1st round pick and it’s really the system not him anyways” I am only hoping they do everything reasonable to keep him here. If Snyder offers him a 10 year 120 million contract, I would obviously understand them letting him walk.
"Never underestimate the dumb with JJ" - Hugh Jarce
If Snyder offers anything, I'd consider not matching...
6th pick could be Morris Claiborne, Quinton Coples, or a trade back for a mid-round 1st (Nick Perry? David DeCastro?) and another 2nd.
Think about the kind of draft haul that could be, as an example: OLB, WR, NT, and WR/OL…..all because you traded Arian Foster. That’s a lot of potential value worth considering if your job as a GM is to build a great team.
"Lord, beer me strength."
Or RGIII!
I’m getting more and more worried about our future QB situation. It’d be awfully nice to have Griffin waiting in the wings when Schaub’s contract expires in 2013.
You could certainly flip the 6 and 26 for RGIII at 2.
There’s a lot you could do if Dan Snyder wants to bust out his checkbook.
I’m not saying it’d be okay to lose Arian, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world….especially if you walk away with a sweet prize.
"Lord, beer me strength."
Maybe I'm just a homer....
but I saw enough in TJ Yates for me to not be worried about our future QB situation. Did he make rookie mistakes? Yes! DUH, he’s a rookie! Not every rookie can be Andy Dalton. Personally I didn’t see anything that some good coaching and more repetitions under his belt won’t fix.
Will I be one screaming for him to replace Schaub if Schaub stumbles? No! But I think as a future franchise QB TJ is as real a deal as one can get these days unless someone just falls into our laps.
Just my $.02
Even duct tape can't fix stupid
agree
Way too many questions to say he’s the answer. But he could be the answer. He needs 2 years of watching. He has everything except the time to be a quality starter.
The problem is I don’t see him being ready for the start of the 2013 season. But things change yearly around the NFL, so lets roll with what we have, and see how things look this time next year.
TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.
Yep, TJ Yates wasn't the problem
it was Jacoby
"All our lives we're taught to get in line. The ones who conform never discover." - Undrafted Free Agent and NFL Rushing Leader Arian Foster
looking at the whole of the TJ experience
Let’s say he was the first round pick in 2011, we knew we were losing Schaub so he was the heir apparent.
If Schaub and Leinart got hurt, and we bring in the rookie early, as we did last year, I’d expect the stud first rounder to do just about what TJ did last year. That would be the high end of expectations for a rookie of any caliber.
But I don’t put a lot of stock in that until we see how he seasons. Does he improve watching Schaub, and the team moves on from Schaub instead of extending him? Or is he a career backup, and we extend Schaub. The good thing is we have a year to figure this out, and Schaub is not at the end of the line if he’s the answer.
TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.
by texanphil on Feb 18, 2012 3:45 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
This is a good point
I don’t recall Cam Newton or Andy Dalton doing a whole lot better their first 6 games. Christian Ponder didn’t do as well at first. And I know Blain Gabbert and Jake Locker didn’t do as well, throughout the season.
If everybody was somebody, then nobody would be anybody - Gilbert and Sullivan
by professortex on Feb 18, 2012 6:25 PM CST up reply actions
With 4 potential picks in the top 2 rounds....think of this draft haul
OLB Nick Perry or OG David DeCastro (round 1)
WR Michael Floyd or NT Dontari Poe (round 1)
NT Josh Chapman or WR Mohammed Sanu/Rueben Randle/Stephen Hill (round 2)
WR Nick Toon (round 2)
C David Molk (round 3)
Or you stay at 6 and pick up Morris Claiborne add a Poe or WR at 26 and take WR/Chapman in round 2.
That’s a draft class that’s drool worthy.
"Lord, beer me strength."
would a 1st round draft for Foster be in THIS coming draft?
#Texans2011 — Where reality and dreams collide!
~~ Fuzion
"This is a grown dog’s game. Ain’t no puppies out here." ~~ Cushing #56 to Antonio Smith #94
by BattleRedFan on Feb 19, 2012 9:46 PM CST up reply actions
You are correct that would be a haul
In my mind though, it still comes back to “potential” versus a known commodity. That could be a killer draft haul, or it could end up being complete crap. If the Texans let him walk I will do what all fans do and support that decision, but I will be heart broken for sure.
"Never underestimate the dumb with JJ" - Hugh Jarce
^^This.
For this dream garden, we let go of a stud play maker who just proved he’s not only great in the regular season, but steps up big in the playoffs? Absolutely nuts. This could be THE year; how many shots will this squad will get at a ring?
I like MDC’s scenario of a non-exclusive tag. Giving up two #1s will probably deter even Snyder.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
by FreedomRide on Feb 16, 2012 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
I agree a billion percent! We can't lose Foster!!!!!
/don’t wanna become FosterlessChild
On a side note, here’s a haiku:
Arian Foster
Like poetry in motion
Namaste, good sir
A sharp tongue is the only edged tool that grows keener with constant use.--Washington Irving
by Foster Child on Feb 16, 2012 6:29 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
wow! awesome Haiku!
I wish I could rec this 1000 more times!
well said!
#Texans2011 — Where reality and dreams collide!
~~ Fuzion
"This is a grown dog’s game. Ain’t no puppies out here." ~~ Cushing #56 to Antonio Smith #94
by BattleRedFan on Feb 19, 2012 9:48 PM CST up reply actions
I’d match any reasonable offer in a heartbeat. But if the price is too high, you take that cap room and first-rounder and get somebody else in free agency.
I have no argument with this. What I do deny is that a 1st-round pick is solid compensation for Arian Foster at this stage in his career. It isn’t; it would be a very bad deal for the Texans. Any draft choice is a pig in a poke; we know what Arian can do.
If Arian were 3 years older, I might be fine with it even if he were coming off another Pro Bowl year. But I want these next three Pro Bowl seasons (or more) out of him before he goes, and I DAMNED sure wouldn’t trade them for one 1st-round pick.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
by FreedomRide on Feb 16, 2012 1:52 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
As I mentioned below
it’s possible to tag Foster in a way that, if the Texans can’t/don’t match the other team’s offer, the Texans get two first-rounders.
I have not yet begun to defile myself.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC
Did you just write
pig in a poke? I haven’t heard that in years.
Thank you Texans for 2011.
The 2012 season can't start soon enough.
I think that's what I wrote...
/checks
Yep.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
I'm wondering something
You know, the Texans could have signed Arian to an extension before now and they didn’t. I am wondering if that was a mistake. Because, they may have to pay more, now.
Granted, Foster is no Chris Johnson, demanding to renegotiate before every season. Imagine that? I don’t expect Chris Johnson will be demanding to renegotiate this offseason…. Sounds like the punchline of a joke, doesn’t it? Haha!
"All our lives we're taught to get in line. The ones who conform never discover." - Undrafted Free Agent and NFL Rushing Leader Arian Foster
You know, the Texans could have signed Arian to an extension before now and they didn’t. I am wondering if that was a mistake. Because, they may have to pay more, now.
I think McNair anticipated this when he challenged Foster to prove he was more than a 1-year wonder.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
definitely
and it was the right move.
We’ve been Slaton’d burned before.
TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.
There's really only 1 team looking for a running back (Cincinnati)
Their option is trade a 1st rounder to Arian Foster while giving him $9M+ a year for 4-5 years or grab Trent Richardson with one of those two draft picks and pay him much less for 4 years while investing the other space on a lineman or safety (both of which they need).
Long story short, I think a tender would suffice.
"Lord, beer me strength."
Daniel Snyder is always lurking, and his team runs the same offense.
He is by no means the only idiot owner out there, either. I say franchise Arian if a deal can’t be negotiated in time.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
by FreedomRide on Feb 16, 2012 11:59 AM CST up reply actions
I hope Daniel Snyder does that
I’d gladly take the 6th overall pick for Arian Foster.
"Lord, beer me strength."
That's just crazy. You gotta be trollin' me, TDC.
Have you forgotten the bad old days at RB? Have you forgotten Ahman Green?
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
I don't think we'd have minded quite as much...
If we’d had Tate and Ward backing him up (though I did love the Dayne-train). And again, you could take that remaining money that you would have used on Foster to shore up another position. Though I don’t care for the idea of drafting a receiver, I certainly wouldn’t be opposed to having Dwayne Bowe line up opposite Andre.
While the running game, the heart of the offense, declines?
No thanks. Tate and Ward are not in Foster’s class. If you’re going to tell me that it would not cost us any wins to substitute them for him, I’m just gonna let you guys talk among yourselves about it from here on out.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
I don't mean to sound like a dick...
But it seems like you’re not quite getting the premise here.
You don’t just lose Foster and go through the season with an empty roster spot. You’re going to get a first-round pick to strengthen some aspect of your football team, and you have the option of allotting your cap space elsewhere to strengthen another position.
Whether that makes you a better team in 2012 or in the long-term is up for debate. And that’s what we’re doing… Mulling the possibilities.
Oh, I get it. But someone said a first-round pick is solid compensation for Arian.
No. HELL no.
How much confidence do you have that a draft pick is going to overcome the loss of Foster in a year when the Texans are a leading SB contender? I have none. Zero.
I invite you to imagine what Kubiak’s or Smith’s answer would be to that question.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
No, you apparently still don't get it.
Because you continue to ignore opportunity cost. The comparison, again, would be Foster’s production versus a first-round draft pick and another free agent making $7-8 million per year. In other words, Foster versus a first-round draft pick and Dwayne Bowe or Brandon Carr or Vincent Jackson and so on.
You're looking at the coming season like it's a commercial real estate deal.
It isn’t like that. SB-quality teams are ephemeral. You have to take the “opportunity” when it’s there, not hedge it.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
by FreedomRide on Feb 16, 2012 4:56 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Well, on that point I disagree.
When you get into a “one-and-done” scenario like the playoffs, there’s a huge luck element involved. It’s about getting hot at the right time, going up against favorable match-ups, and having the ball bounce your way. The best team doesn’t always win the superbowl in a given year. Because of that, I’m in favor of keeping that window open as long as possible.
I agree that Foster is special. You’re going to get more production out of him than any other free agent. He might be the best offensive (non-QB) player in football. All that said, I still don’t think he’s more valuable than a high first-rounder + another top-tier free agent. We’ll have to agree to disagree there.
or, having the ball bounce away.... Jacoby Jones
"All our lives we're taught to get in line. The ones who conform never discover." - Undrafted Free Agent and NFL Rushing Leader Arian Foster
I think someone's in love with the wrong things...
…I posted on an earlier article about the lack of a need for a dominant running back to win in today’s league, using Ray Rice, MJD, CJ2YPC, AP and Beast Mode as examples (and yes, some of these guys had off years) of good/great running backs that didn’t get their teams into the playoffs. So let me posit the following arguments:
1) Arian was an UNDRAFTED free agent. I think recouping a number one for him is more than fair/solid compensation.
2) Tate was drafted to be our RB of the future, we still have him under contract, and had he not been hurt and had that extra year in the system, we might be having this same conversation about “remember the shitty running situation from a few years ago” about Tate – in several categories he is comparable/slightly better than Foster with less playing time.
3) This is a system where running back, assuming the right running back is put in place, can produce a serviceable to great running game (which again, in today’s NFL is secondary to passing).
4) With two number one’s, we address two of our biggest needs (IMO – NT and WR2) while freeing up around 8mil in cap room to resign Meyers, keeping our line in tact.
5) Arian was found after the draft (and if I recall correctly, initially not by the Texans), because of injury and perceived “character issues” coming out of college – there is NOTHING that says a 3rd, 4th, 7th, or UFA wouldn’t plug in just fine after a year or two sitting on the practice squad or tearing it up on special teams.
6) If we have TWO reliable “go-to” receivers, and Daniels comes back full strength (with Dreesen – maybe – and a James Casey who is spending full time at TE, as Vickers has shown reliable), how much more does that open UP the running game, allowing Tate (or someone else) to put up Foster like numbers.
My only argument against NOT figuring out something with Arian is that this league (and our season last year) has proven you need depth at your skill positions. With Arian out, Tate was able to adequately handle the load. I cannot foresee a future with an Arian-less Texans squad where Tate goes down and we have to see Ward as the full-time back.
Personally, I think Kubes and Smith know what they’re doing when it comes to finding running backs. And if giving up one piece means keeping together the rest of the team with money to lock up long-term deals for impending free agents, or possibly chasing another Manning/Joseph option (mid/low price free agent that upgrades another spot on the team), I say do it.
But given the choice between Arian and Mario, I’m staying with Arian all day long.
Something clever and witty until I think of something awesome.
by texpatriateCO on Feb 16, 2012 5:06 PM CST up reply actions 6 recs
The fact that Arian was an UDFA in no way implies that this is a reliable way to find superstars,
nor does it have the slightest relation to his current value. Getting a #1 for him would be a ripoff.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
Theoretically
it isn’t a ripoff, b/c what more of a compensation COULD they give u? I do agree with your assessment that a player’s particular pre-draft or draft status is irrelevant in his capability to produce. However, when weighing options, I think we have to be holistic, and IF Arian were to not be signed, it would sting a bit, but I think we’d recover.
ugh f**k it
I wanna disagree with myself. Sign Arian PLZZZ!!!!
And a wreck for you good sir.
I have been at odds with much of what you’ve said in other posts, but I happen to agree with much of what you are saying in this one.
My one quibble is that the running game is secondary to passing to the Texans. Maybe on most other NFL squads, but Kubiak has stated in pressers and one can see in his play calling, that when he has the weapons, he prefers to use the run to set up the pass. When all he had was 2009 version of Steve Slaton, yes, he HAD to use the pass to set up ANY kind of run game. Now that he has the weapons he wants, he will run, run, run, then when he sees the defense cheating against the run, he passes and usually gets someone open on an out route or across the middle.
Just my $.02
Even duct tape can't fix stupid
by txknight on Feb 16, 2012 5:48 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
sickness.
I agree completely. We are in love with Arian and Mario so sometimes it becomes difficult to take the rose-colored glasses off, but there is no doubt that our management knows how to navigate the draft and where to find value for the positions they deem necessary. Good post bro.
I wish the SB Nation app would let me rec this
Well put. I had the same thought about Mario. I would love another Manning/Joseph deal at WR/ CB/Safety and the only reason I say safety is because I wouldn’t mind Quinn moving back to CB.
by CJ3m on Feb 16, 2012 10:58 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
this is bullshit,
when Foster was injured, we stalled every time we got into the red zone. Matt Schaub and Tate were very capable of getting us there, but we stalled. Foster was our entire Red Zone offense in 2010 and 2011.
Look at Ben Tate’s numbers vs. good defenses. Like the Steelers and Falcons(I think the top 2 rush defenses in the NFL). Look at Fosters playoff production. 150+ against two top 10 rush defenses. Mind you this is without Schaub. With all due respect, Tate can’t do what Foster did to Polamolu and Ray Lewis. Tate actually didn’t get a rushing attempt against the Ravens in the playoffs(according to ESPN.com).
Foster was our entire offense in the second half of the season/playoffs. Please quit acting like he’s just another running back. The guy led this team in RUSHING AND RECEIVING.(counting the playoffs).
You think Ben Tate can avoid Polamolu? You think he make a one handed grab against the Ravens on 3rd and 13? Quit smoking!
I figured that if I said it enough, I would convince the world that I really was the greatest.
~Muhammad Ali
by steelblue on Feb 16, 2012 11:52 PM CST up reply actions 7 recs
This wasn't directed at anyone, just me ranting!
I figured that if I said it enough, I would convince the world that I really was the greatest.
~Muhammad Ali
you know
I had completely forgotten about the stall at the red with Tate. God that was frustrating. Good point sir.
by CJ3m on Feb 17, 2012 2:17 PM CST via iPhone app up reply actions
But Tate does try to generate touchdowns for others.
Which game did he graciously give the ball to Wade Smith so he could get a TD?
Dallas Cowboys, all hat and no cattle since 1996.
"Will it never be noon?" Duke of Orleans to the Dauphin and Constable of France every Sunday before the Texans play.
by Jonathan Fosburgh on Feb 17, 2012 2:37 PM CST up reply actions
I believe that to be the Ravens game...
It was awfully nice of him to share the wealth like that.
I've got nothin'...
Couldn't have said it better myself
I’m tired of people thinking Arian is just another RB, that we can somehow pick up another one in the draft or that Tate can fill in just nice. Tate is great, but let’s be real…Arian is a legit elite RB that teams dream about and to let him go would come back to haunt us.
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
by HTown24 on Feb 17, 2012 5:41 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
Tate is good, but he is absolutely not Foster.
"Never underestimate the dumb with JJ" - Hugh Jarce
And we only have one season of Tate.
Steve Slaton says hi, btw.
Dallas Cowboys, all hat and no cattle since 1996.
"Will it never be noon?" Duke of Orleans to the Dauphin and Constable of France every Sunday before the Texans play.
by Jonathan Fosburgh on Feb 17, 2012 9:26 AM CST up reply actions
Compare Foster's first year to Tate's
And then make that argument.
"Never underestimate the dumb with JJ" - Hugh Jarce
I'm not sure where you are going with that.
My point was that, if we assume that we can get by with Tate as the #1, who’s to say that he doesn’t turn into Slaton v2?
We still required two full years out of Foster to make sure he wasn’t going to be Slaton v2.
Dallas Cowboys, all hat and no cattle since 1996.
"Will it never be noon?" Duke of Orleans to the Dauphin and Constable of France every Sunday before the Texans play.
by Jonathan Fosburgh on Feb 17, 2012 9:56 AM CST up reply actions
Well he hasn't had a terrible neck injury for one
by Jason Brown on Feb 17, 2012 10:19 AM CST up reply actions
Good point
Also, hasn’t made a habit of dropping the ball, although last season, he lost his concentration at the wrong time a few times….
"All our lives we're taught to get in line. The ones who conform never discover." - Undrafted Free Agent and NFL Rushing Leader Arian Foster
Truth.
Ben Tate does not make this play.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
I so love watching Palamalu grab air on that run.
If everybody was somebody, then nobody would be anybody - Gilbert and Sullivan
by professortex on Feb 17, 2012 9:45 AM CST up reply actions
I fear that people are underselling Tate and overselling Foster
They are both excellent. Heck, Ward, while he has his limitations is more than adequate in this offense.
"All our lives we're taught to get in line. The ones who conform never discover." - Undrafted Free Agent and NFL Rushing Leader Arian Foster
Actually, I think this clip is a great example of how good Foster is.
If you look at it, I think he is supposed to hit the A gap, left side then cut left. But he sees a bigger hole to the right. Split second hesitation, and he makes the change. Tate, I think, commits to the call, hits the A gap, and gets tackled by Clark.
If everybody was somebody, then nobody would be anybody - Gilbert and Sullivan
by professortex on Feb 17, 2012 10:06 AM CST up reply actions
I will try not to let the what ifs of one play dissuade me from my opinion....
"All our lives we're taught to get in line. The ones who conform never discover." - Undrafted Free Agent and NFL Rushing Leader Arian Foster
There is a lot more evidence than one play to suggest Foster is the better back
"Never underestimate the dumb with JJ" - Hugh Jarce
Really?
"All our lives we're taught to get in line. The ones who conform never discover." - Undrafted Free Agent and NFL Rushing Leader Arian Foster
Yep, check this
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
Don't take my word for it...
Kubiak’s game-plan against the Ravens should be ample evidence. Tate didn’t touch the ball the entire game. Foster carried it 27 times (for a strong 4.9 YPC against the Ravens defense).
by Nashmeister on Feb 17, 2012 10:57 AM CST up reply actions
I can accept that and I do
But, whatever my opinion is , its not changing based on one highlight video of one play. I can show you a few highlights of a few plays featuring Tate that are pretty spectacular. Would that change your mind?
"All our lives we're taught to get in line. The ones who conform never discover." - Undrafted Free Agent and NFL Rushing Leader Arian Foster
dance with who brung ya
and we don’t need to limit Foster in a do or die playoff game. You ride your best back until he can’t get up anymore.
None of that is any evidence that Tate would not have done as well or better in that game, if given the chance.
Which is the question. Take out Foster, can Tate do the job of RB1? I’m not arguing that he definitely can, I just don’t think we know until he’s the everyday RB1. My eyes say he’s a pretty good runner.
TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.
you're high.
foster is so much better than tate is. it is crystal clear.
Kenwo4life=ratings. Just call me Mr. USA Today.
amen, SteelBlue!
Arian Foster IS special. ANY RB couldn’t do what Arian Foster does. It would have to be a truly talented RB like Arian Foster. There can be only one.
Excellent running backs are not that easy to find. If so why didn’t we keep Chris Ogbonnaya on the roster instead of the practice squad since he was younger than Ward?
Have we already forgotten how many RBs run straight into the pile? Arian Foster has patience and lightning quick intelligence to take advantage of his openings.
I imagine that when he’s got the ball he’s not writing poetry but making probability calculations of what lane will open and which way to shift his weight. He’s amazing and the fact that Foster makes it LOOK easy is a credit to his skill.
You just can’t find that kind of production from just any first round pick. We were freaking blessed to find Foster as an undrafted free agent. We better not make a mistake and lose him to Free Agency.
#Texans2011 — Where reality and dreams collide!
~~ Fuzion
"This is a grown dog’s game. Ain’t no puppies out here." ~~ Cushing #56 to Antonio Smith #94
by BattleRedFan on Feb 19, 2012 10:21 PM CST up reply actions
gosh
I’m so damn bipolar about this, but steelbue u have a legit point.
As a runner, Tate's shown himself to be effective
5.4 YPC isn’t something to scoff at.
"Lord, beer me strength."
and he picked up more DYAR
despite far less carries which is pretty damn hard to do
Go ahead, tell me the Texans would be as good a team with him starting instead of Foster.
I dare ya’.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
As good a team?
Depends on what they get with that additional 1st rounder.
"Lord, beer me strength."
If we give up Foster for a 1st rounder, we better take Richardson with that 1st round pick
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 4:44 PM CST up reply actions
Blackmon
The 6th overall pick also puts Justin Blackmon back in the picture. A true potential Dre replacement/WR2 + the potential to keep Mario and solidify the D opens up alot of possibilities. This also allows us to go NT, RB with our actual picks in the first 2 rounds.
Blackmon won't make it to #6
Either Cleveland will take him at #4, or they’ll trade up & the Rams will take him at #4
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 5:05 PM CST up reply actions
Doesn't get us to the next SB, though.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
No thanks, I'll keep Arian and take my chances on another WR
While this draft is deep at WR, none of them look to be drop-dead awesome enough to consider letting Arian go. Plus, wouldn’t picking up a high draft pick cost a lot of money anyway, which is the whole reason we’re having this argument about not signing Foster?
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
by HTown24 on Feb 17, 2012 5:50 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, and how confident would you be at this moment, planning on going into 2012 with Tate
and some unproven prospect vs. having Arian at starting RB?
Dunno about you, but if I’m looking to make a SB run this year, I want 23 lined up on opening weekend.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
Preach it, brother!
I’m in the pews, but please don’t pass the collection plate;) Like my new sig? I told ya I was gonna use that line.
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
I'd be pretty confident
Considering that Tate has been extremely productive, and that my goal is not a 1 year run at a Super Bowl but being a winning team for the next 10 years.
I think those differences in goals are what will divide most of us on how to go from here. Some want to go all in and try to win it all next year, and some want to go the Pats route and try for 10+ wins every year and just get into the lottery that is the NFL playoffs
by Jason Brown on Feb 16, 2012 6:03 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't see how not accepting a #1 pick for Foster this year mortgages the future.
Rather the reverse, actually.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
depends on the cost
if you match too high an offer, it definitely can mortgage the future for a)next year, and/or b)one player.
TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.
That's why they should go ahead and sign him now
Rather than franchise him and wait until next year, when he could have a monster season and be too expensive as a UFA.
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
if we franchise him
I’d bet he leaves next year.
If I was a bettin man, right now I think we do the two-firsts thing for him. Is that a f-tag?
TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.
There's another issue at the heart of the divide.
Some of us believe that sometimes special players come along that defy lots of the standard rules. And we think Arian is that special. I’m afraid many Texans fans have become so jaded by 9 yrs of futility that they can no longer believe in players the way Colts fans used to believe in Manning or the way I used to believe in Earl Campbell. Yea, I’m old….
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
by Still Blue on Feb 16, 2012 6:17 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
"Yea, I’m old…."
…and wise.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
right back at you, Freedom:)
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
why would we want to make another offense that much stronger
by dealing them our BEST RB?
If we seriously want to go to the SB many times then keeping the best players is the best course of action. Collecting draft picks. . .meh. First round draft picks can just as easily be a bust — see Reggie Bush =P .
Oh wait! wasn’t he a top 1st round draft pick? hmmmm where is he now?
Do I need to say more?
Stick with the proven product.
#Texans2011 — Where reality and dreams collide!
~~ Fuzion
"This is a grown dog’s game. Ain’t no puppies out here." ~~ Cushing #56 to Antonio Smith #94
by BattleRedFan on Feb 19, 2012 10:27 PM CST up reply actions
Derrick Ward had 6.2 YPC in 2010
Let’s just dump both Foster and Tate and let Ward carry the load!
I figured that if I said it enough, I would convince the world that I really was the greatest.
~Muhammad Ali
by steelblue on Feb 16, 2012 11:54 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Hah!
Statistics are wonderful, aren’t they?
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
haha
gotta agree. foster must stay. its just foster
I could see New England seriously signing Arian to an offer sheet
They already have 4 picks in the first 2 rounds. They have theirs (31st and 63rd) and NO’s 1st (27th) and Oakland’s 2nd (49th). Remember how good the Pats were when they had Corey Dillon toting the rock. That would simultaneously hurt the competition (Texans) and improve their 20th ranked rushing offense. The best way to protect Brady is to make sure he doesn’t have to throw it 50 times a game. They already have a dominant oline. I think Arian would have been able to grind out the Giants in the second half of the Super Bowl. Eli never gets the ball back, Patriots are SB champs. Makes too much sense…
"...you may all got hell, and I will go to Texas!"
-Davey Crockett
by Drill Sarge on Feb 16, 2012 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
I feel like the Patriots have invested in too many running backs lately
I don’t think they’d pull that trigger when they had, what, four backs on the roster last year? With two of them being rookies? Then again, the Pats always have wacky personnel philosophies.
Plus they get enough production from Woodhead & Law Firm alone
Keeping all those average RB on their roster & splitting their carries is how they keep costs down on the RB position in New England
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 1:18 PM CST up reply actions
They have one, they just rarely use it
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 3:35 PM CST up reply actions
good point
With that kind of passing game, their below-avg rushing stats make more sense. But then again, where was it when they needed to wear down the clock in the 4th quarter of the SB?
Their rushing game isn't even really below average
They have lower totals because they don’t use it much, but they are effective when used. I remember seeing a quote from Bill a while back along the lines of – I have a hall of fame QB, every time we hand the ball off I’m doing a disservice to the team
Where was it in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl?
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
Yay 1 instance! Against a good defense!
Their rushing game sucks
I never said that.
You mad or something?
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
Nope
I’m just surprised at how many comments I’ve seen lately that hinge on "Well X happened in the Super Bowl, therefore… ". Everything from “We need Manningham” to the Pats giving up a 1st for Foster, despite them always being on the other end of trading players for picks.
It’s one quarter of one game and doesn’t negate what they did throughout the year, nor does it likely influence how they plan for next year
If you cannot run the ball in that situation
then you have a sub-par running game in my opinion. I never said it sucked nor did I talk about any of your other complaints in the first paragraph of the above comment.
Glad you’re not angry though. I was mostly amusing myself and didn’t mean to upset a fellow Texan fan. Sorry if I offended you.
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
No we're cool
I didn’t take it personal, just playing around (and trying to get a feel for the sarcasm font)
oh yea, I forgot about that
I thought you were inventing block quotes I didn’t say. LOL. My bad.
Take it ez, Jason.
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
nah I was thinking New England would make an offer to Mario
if they thought that they needed some dork like Fat Albert then they could really use someone like Mario Williams.
#Texans2011 — Where reality and dreams collide!
~~ Fuzion
"This is a grown dog’s game. Ain’t no puppies out here." ~~ Cushing #56 to Antonio Smith #94
by BattleRedFan on Feb 19, 2012 10:11 PM CST up reply actions
Well, take this for what it is (which is nothing), but...
I’m GMing the Texans on what is probably one of the largest GM mocks on the internet, at footballsfuture. I’ve tendered Arian for a 1st round pick and several teams have already expressed interest in acquiring him. Keeping in mind that we have no cap room, if some team decides to draft an offer sheet that pays Arian like he’s Adrian Peterson, Houston will have to let him walk (well, and get a 1st round pick in return).
Also, cutting Jacoby Jones will create a bigger cap hit than keeping him, just so everyone knows.
Welcome to Houston, J.J. Watt, Brooks Reed, Brandon Harris, Rashad Carmichael, Shiloh Keo, T.J. Yates, Derek Newton, and Cheta Ozougwu!
Also, cutting Jacoby Jones will create a bigger cap hit than keeping him, just so everyone knows.
:( How?
unemployment benefits?
I figured that if I said it enough, I would convince the world that I really was the greatest.
~Muhammad Ali
I have heard the
exact opposite of that. I heard that he is only a 700k hit if we cut him, and a 3 mil hit if we keep him, if you have heard differently please show me where you heard it from.
by Bobbythegreat on Feb 16, 2012 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
Not only that, but the 700K is a one year hit.
If everybody was somebody, then nobody would be anybody - Gilbert and Sullivan
by professortex on Feb 16, 2012 2:18 PM CST up reply actions
Doesn't even have to be one year.
Make him a June 1 cut and you can split it over two seasons.
I have not yet begun to defile myself.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC
Not only would they have to let him walk
I think they’d do so without a doubt. No running back should earn that kind of contract….it was a terrible deal for Minnesota.
"Lord, beer me strength."
Also, cutting Jacoby Jones will create a bigger cap hit than keeping him, just so everyone knows
bigger? This is not possible. Hyperbole?
Rotoworld has him at 3 years/$10.5M, $3M guaranteed in July of 2011. Doing the math, that smells like a very small signing bonus. Which puts him at a very small cap hit whenever he’s cut.
TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.
Just FYI
The tag number for a RB this year is $7.7M, which is noticeably less than 2011 ($9.6M) due to the new way that tag amounts are calculated in the new CBA.
I have not yet begun to defile myself.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC
I would call Arian worth that.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
by FreedomRide on Feb 16, 2012 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
Oh, certainly.
I was just throwing the number out there for educational purposes.
I have not yet begun to defile myself.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC
That's pretty spot on with what I thought he'd be receiving with a new multi-year deal
Around $7-8 M/ year.
by brightshinies on Feb 16, 2012 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
Not sure how realistic those expectations are
I’m still a student of off season GM 101
by brightshinies on Feb 16, 2012 12:12 PM CST up reply actions
Ya, you are about right.
If everybody was somebody, then nobody would be anybody - Gilbert and Sullivan
by professortex on Feb 16, 2012 2:19 PM CST up reply actions
I would say, in general
If he is truly the “play for the game/team and not for the money” guy that we all believe and praise him to be, He’d understand if we franchised him for the greater good. One year – 7.7 Mil, with the same, stable coaching staff, with deep play-off potential. That’s a pretty sweet deal. I think if he hits the market you still have to ask – system RB? Though, exceptional in our system.
P.s. I also think the stability/potential of this team next season is something the FO has in all its FA dealings (Mario, Myers, Etc.).
by Deep-Steel-Beard on Feb 16, 2012 12:27 PM CST reply actions
I think we will sign him
to a long term deal long before we have to worry about another team throwing buckets of cash at him.
by Bobbythegreat on Feb 16, 2012 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
Thank you
I don’t know why people still keep insisting that we franchise him for a year…that’s the same as saying you want him gone next year. I think teams will throw buckets of money at him next year…it will be the biggest story in the NFL after the 2012 season…why risk this?
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
This may all be moot
I don’t think you can franchise a restricted free agent, and can’t seem to find any examples of that happening. Does anyone else have anything?
I'm sure
that you could do it, most of the time there isn’t any reason to do so and that is why I doubt you could find any examples of it.
by Bobbythegreat on Feb 16, 2012 12:38 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, you can.
It’s just almost never done. The Steelers have been talking about maybe hitting Mike Wallace with the tag, for example.
I have not yet begun to defile myself.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC
Tag him, but try to get a deal done.
He’s our biggest play maker. I’m 100% certain Rick Smith retains his services.
Meanwhile, lets see an extension for Kubiak and Smith, too.
And a raise w/ extension for Wade Phillips
by The Arian Race on Feb 16, 2012 2:36 PM CST up reply actions
while we're spending all of Bob's money
give Texanphil a 50 yard line skybox!
TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.
I want one tooo
"Taco Joe - the beacon of optimism" TexansDC
THEREALALLENOU: "@Joeeatstacos... You're like the second testicle to my Tom green. I dont NEED you, but life is better when your around lol"
AllenOU is the Montgomery to my Patton
God blessed Texas, but he has forsaken the Texans
Follow @Joeeatstacos
The talk of Cody Fleener with our 1st has me thinkin'
What kinda space could we clear by cutting Owen Daniels? I love OD but I see he is due 6.5 mil next season and Dressen only made like 1.5 mil last year.
Could we cut Daniels and re-sign Dressen and draft Fleener? Seems like a Fleener/Dressen/Casey/Graham TE lineup would be more than adequate and much cheaper… maybe?
Rectum!? Damn near killed 'em!!!
by theSpaceCityKid on Feb 16, 2012 1:48 PM CST reply actions
Holy shit
OD will be the highest paid TE next year
Rectum!? Damn near killed 'em!!!
by theSpaceCityKid on Feb 16, 2012 1:51 PM CST up reply actions
I'm totally against Fleener
only because that’s my boss’ last name and I don’t want to think about work every time I watch or read about the Texans.
Thank you Texans for 2011.
The 2012 season can't start soon enough.
I can fully understand this feeling.
I had true idiot boss in every sense of the word, and for quite some time now I hate the name “Sloan” in any form it is spelled. lulz
Just my $.02
Even duct tape can't fix stupid
Damn, I had no idea OD cap hit was that high.
I think this is something that must be considered. I know OD is the best TE in our team, but we’ve been drafting TE’s for years now and it may be time to give them more PT. Casey certainly has my vote as someone that can be a very productive tight end, and I think someone said he has the best hands of anyone on the team (was it Andre?).
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
trade him?
what’s his trade value? Probably only worth it if we could pick up a first, which is doubtful.
It would leave us with Graham and Casey, unless we bring back Dreesen.
But third down conversions are huge for this offense (as opposed to all those other offenses that don’t really need em as much :) ) and he’s real good at those, so I think his big contract is going to be the cost of doing bidness.
TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.
Can Casey become our next stud TE?
The few times he played this year (before getting hurt), he showed he could catch some tough throws.
"And on the 1st week of the 2nd month, year of our lord two-thousand thirteen, the football team from Houston, Texas USA will hoist the Lombardi trophy to a cheerful audience in New Orleans, LA USA."—Nostradamus, 99th Quatrain, Century X
by HTown24 on Feb 19, 2012 12:01 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Been thinking about this for a couple hours.
I think the answer, as far as franchise tags go, is to hit Foster with a non-exclusive tag if push comes to shove, rather than tendering him the RFA offer. That way, he can still negotiate with other teams, but if he signs with the second team and we don’t/can’t match the deal, then the Texans would get TWO first-round picks as compensation. The amount on the non-exclusive tag would be the same as the exclusive tag, too, because the calculation for the exclusive tag was changed in the newest CBA.
I have not yet begun to defile myself.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC
If Foster gets tendered the RFA offer this year and signs with another team, when do we get their #1,
2012 0r 2013?
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
2012
I have not yet begun to defile myself.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC
I'm assuming that would be a first this year and a first next year?
what kind of picks would a 2013 first round pick net in a trade to get picks for the 2012 draft?
Watch me all in flames, on a butterfly I ride
The standard answer always seems to be
that you discount the pick by one round for each year. So a 2013 first would be equivalent in value to a 2012 second.
I have not yet begun to defile myself.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC
No Foster = No Playoffs next year
Get it done. I’d franchise him though if they can’t get a deal done b4 other teams can make offers. I don’t think it’ll be just a first rounder though, it should be a first plus a third.
Um...if you tag him
the only picks you can wind up with are none (exclusive rights tag) or two firsts (non-exclusive). If you slap the highest RFA tender on him, you would get a first if he left. The new CBA got rid of the 1/3 tender.
I have not yet begun to defile myself.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC
Ouch on the third rounder thing, I did not know that. Doesn't tagging mean we can't lose him though unlike a tender?
Not if you use the non-exclusive tag.
He can still negotiate with other teams. If he signs an offer sheet, we can either match it or get two first-round picks.
I have not yet begun to defile myself.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC
Then slap the non-exclusive tag on him
I doubt any team would be willing to part with two 1st round picks for Foster
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 2:41 PM CST up reply actions
Nah
I wouldn’t worry about to much, It wasn’t like you called a name or anything. You were replying to Night Owl so you knew he would get the joke, unfortunately not everyone is familiar with you.
"He was in my way, so I got him out of the way." - Arian Foster
Thanks
i did not think it was that bad either but o well, bunch of pussies. If anybody knows anything about the texans know we are not going saftey in 2nd round at all.
2012 1st round draft pick is...............
Much less a white one, unless his name is Eric Weddle
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 3:36 PM CST up reply actions
They send me a warning for that.
I am like really dude. o well guess when it gets close to draft night i wil go back over there and let them really have it.
2012 1st round draft pick is...............
What is this all about?
I must have missed something while I was in hibernation mode :)
I've got nothin'...
Not much, he just southpaw'd on MTD over someone mocking Harrison Smith to us in the 2nd
In case you’re wondering, Harrison Smith is white safety from Notre Dame
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 17, 2012 12:04 PM CST up reply actions
In the 1st 10 seasons....
The only two winning seasons came from good defensive seasons. I think the premise is “No defense = No playoffs.” It’s why Baltimore and Pittsburgh are perennial powers.
"Lord, beer me strength."
You mean those teams that are willing
to pay big dollars to defensive players who make an impact?
Interesting.
I have not yet begun to defile myself.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC
by MDC on Feb 16, 2012 3:02 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Can we hit Mario with the non-exclusive tag?
/too lazy to research after work
No, he'd cost more than $20 Mil with the franchise tag
Teams would just let us eat that to make us cash strapped
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 4:46 PM CST up reply actions
Somebody enlighten me please.
When can we start negotiating with and/or otherwise signing/redoing our own players contracts?
Teams can negotiate all they want right now
No one can sign anything until March 13 though
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 3:37 PM CST up reply actions
At least negotiate with their own players
Other teams can’t talk to free agents until March 13
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 3:38 PM CST up reply actions
why can't we
sign players currently under contract with us to long term deals?
TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.
I want to keep Arian, but if he wants huge money,
then let him go. Same with Myers, they’re both products of the system. I’d like to keep Mario because he’s gonna be monster with Wade running the show. Dreesen could walk if he wants to start somewhere as well. "Meco needs to restructure again after that disappointing season or he can get dumped too. I love the Texans and I love the Texans’ players. But the Texans’ come first. I want them to make moves with their brain not their heart.
[By no means am I saying to look to get rid of them, but, if their talking money over our heads, you can’t overpay.]
I'm a household name... at my house.
Michael Vick is the best throwing running back of all time.
My put your name on it prediction for the Housotn Texans.
10-6, with a first round playoff upset over either the Ravens or Steelers.
Wouldn't you make the same argument for Mario/system that you did for Foster?
Mario could be a beast in our system just like Foster, and like Foster we also have adequate replacements for Mario in Reed and Barwin. Are they as good as Mario? No, but Tate is not as good as Foster either. Just interested in how you see the situations as different.
"Never underestimate the dumb with JJ" - Hugh Jarce
Mario was a beast before Wade.
And I wasn’t saying they aren’t superbly talented was just saying that if they want franchise player money to let them walk and find cheaper options so you can fill more holes.
I'm a household name... at my house.
Michael Vick is the best throwing running back of all time.
My put your name on it prediction for the Housotn Texans.
10-6, with a first round playoff upset over either the Ravens or Steelers.
by taylorrohrman on Feb 16, 2012 7:39 PM CST up reply actions
I don't know if I would say Mario was a beast before Wade
He was good, but I don’t think he was ever on a 5 sack in 4 1/4 game pace though.
"Never underestimate the dumb with JJ" - Hugh Jarce
No, he wasn't.
That’s why McNair must put Mario on a $100 million personal service retainer to bring him back (pocket change for the Dear Leader).
With Mario back, the Colts would start Curtis Painter to protect their new franchise QB, and Blaine Gabbert would deliberately miss the flight to Houston.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
Eep.
We need somebody less scary, then. I want Gabbert to play at all costs.
Ha ha! Welcome andrew, to the NFL!
Don’t we always play Indy for our first game of the season?
If everybody was somebody, then nobody would be anybody - Gilbert and Sullivan
by professortex on Feb 16, 2012 9:27 PM CST up reply actions
Gabbert won't get on the flight if Cushing is expected to play
He’s convinced he has met his Angel of Death in that LB
I disagree with the whole system argument
Yes, I do think our coaching staff is excellent (mainly because of Wade) and you definitely cannot win a title with bad coaching. But you have to have players that can perform, otherwise it’s just all sizzle and no steak. You can put together a team with a bunch of average players and hall of fame coaches and they would still not get you to the SB. However, if you have badass players that are probowlers, you can win without elite coaching. I don’t think Tom Coughlin is as good as several coaches in the league and his system isn’t anything special…he just has Eli (elite), 2 high speed and fantastic receivers, and ferocious pass rush (and a nice 1-2 punch at RB).
We tend to believe only in the system, and discount the great talent that we have. The key additions of Joseph & Manning made a huge difference and the Watt & Reed picks were great. I don’t think we could have had a #3 Defense with Wade if we had not made those FA pickups & draft picks.
So I don’t think we can just say “let Arian go” if he wants huge money. He’s a HUGE part of the offense and we must do what we need to do to keep him. Franchising is going to piss him off and will probably be lost next year. Myers too, he’s a rock on that line and should be keep, within reason. Mario…he should go, he hasn’t been healthy for most of his pro career and is too expensive. Dreessen can go too, we have enough TE’s.
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
Trooth.
The league is full of systems. Elite players are rather less common.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
Part of the "system"
Is being able to identify what players to pick and finding value in later rounds that other teams overlook. So yes, I do believe in the system WAY more than I believe in giving any RB more than $6 million per year
Are you kidding?
$6 million a year is too much for an elite running back? Not hardly. Foster is legit, probably someone who can stay elite for years. No way you can plug in Tate or some 3rd back and keep winning. And it’s crazy to think we can just pick up another undrafted RB and have him turn into an allpro again. That was a bit of luck.
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
by HTown24 on Feb 17, 2012 1:44 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
No not kidding
A) Consistently good teams rarely spend that much money on a RB. The only one I could find in the playoffs this year is Frank Gore, and the 49ers aren’t real thrilled with that contract either. On the other hand, teams that have more than that invested in their RB are struggling (Vikings, Jax, KC, Ten etc).
B) Look at Tate’s stats and tell me what makes you think we can’t win with him. No, I don’t think he is quite as good as Foster, but he’s pretty damn good and cheap.
C) As has been mentioned by others on here, you are ignoring the opportunity cost of the player(s) we can add at other positions between that available cap space and possible compensation for his 1st round tender.
Look, as a fan I love Foster and was pulling for both him and Jeremiah Johnson (remember him?) since their first preseason games. I’m trying to be objective here and figure out what’s the limit between keeping a great player and building a great team. It’s not easy, and none of us have the answers, but it’s even more difficult when we’re talking about one of the most loved players on the team.
by Jason Brown on Feb 17, 2012 10:11 AM CST up reply actions
re: B)
The New Orleans game this year. How many of us said “If Foster were playing, that game would’ve been won.”?
I've got nothin'...
Having the defense
stop them a drive or two would have done just as well
by Jason Brown on Feb 17, 2012 11:08 AM CST up reply actions
I'm not arguing that point at all.
The defense definitely didn’t play up to its’ potential in the fourth quarter. However, there were a lot of points left on the field in the red zone that probably would’ve been converted had Arian been healthy and playing. It’s not a certainty, however, with how Arian plays in the red zone, it definitely would’ve been helped keep the Texans in the lead.
I've got nothin'...
/Raises Hand
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 17, 2012 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
See below
A) You can’t compare other teams that do not run the scheme Kubiak does which relies heavily on the running game, like Davis did for Denver in the late 90’s. Davis was the reason Elway finally won 2 rings. Minn, Jax, and KC have all sorts of other problems that has nothing to do with their RB. Tenn…who cares, they are run by Butt Adams. Please remember that salaries go up every year, so does cost-of-living, and we all know the cap will go up too. So $6 mill a year is not unreasonable for an ELITE running back, probably the best in the game right now.
B) The reason Tate does well here is because he platoons in with Arian. Opposing teams have to game plan for Arian’s cut-backing ability, knack for evading tackles, and his overall vision….and then, turn around and get pounded by Tate’s power running. Very difficult. And it is why they are both successful. Tate alone could be fine for a little bit, but then teams will adjust and then what do you have? Injuries and a short shelf life.
C) I am not ignoring the opportunity cost at all. If they get rid of Jacoby Jones, Matt Leinart, Dreesen goes elsewhere probably, and Mario also goes elsewhere, there will be plenty of room to re-sign Arian. Again, it’s a matter of deciding what is most important here.
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
We've been over this a lot on here lately
So I refer you to http://www.battleredblog.com/2012/2/9/2787463/prioritize-it-rank-the-importance-of-the-moves-the-texans-should-make#91480317
An improved defense won Elway 2 rings, not Davis
The scheme that you refer makes both Tate and Foster look better, and negates your reasoning for paying him. Also, I think you misunderstand the meaning of “opportunity cost”
by Jason Brown on Feb 17, 2012 11:26 AM CST up reply actions
Evidently, if you were GM, practically speaking there's no way you'd have Foster on the team this year.
Am I reading you right?
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
Not necessarily
I would place the 1st round tender on him (that part is easy). The difficult part is how high do you go to match a contract? I think anything above $7 or 8 million is outlandish, but there is a huge grey area between the 1st round tender (~$2.7 mil IIRC) and that zone.
This is where I wish we had more transparent league numbers available to us, because just looking around I kinda feel like $4-5 mil is a spot that even I would be comfortable but it’s hard to compare. We get decent info on outliers like ADP, CJ2.0YPC etc but not a really good breakdown in between.
I know I may seem like a hard-line “believe in the system” guy after all of our back & forth this past week, but I do actually believe Arian is worth paying some premium, he is a nice all-around package with blocking and receiving etc. The problem I have is justifying $8mil+ for Foster on a cap-strapped team when Ben Tate is making ~$500k next year. I’m sure we all can agree Foster brings more to the team than Tate, but does he bring 16 times more?
I really try to look at the whole system, the economics of the team & league and the actual stats. It’s hard but I have to turn off my “fan glasses” to look at this objectively and not think about the highlight reel plays Foster has made, or specific games where we debate whether we would have won or not without him, or more importantly – specific situations that happened once last year and may or may not occur again.
Looking at the big picture, I don’t see how in a league with a salary cap you can have 3 guys on offense making over $8 million (AJ, Schaub and Foster) along with a $6.5m TE (seriously, OD’s contract might scare me more than anyone else) plus a $9.5m CB and $8m for Antonio Smith and whatever Demeco’s real number is. It gets scarier when you see that Duane Brown is only around $1.3m right now which we’ll probably have to bump up to 7 or more next year, not to mention Barwin and Quin.
These are very difficult and very real constraints, and there is no magic formula. We probably are never going to agree on this, and I’m ok with that…but I got addicted to BRB years ago because it’s the only place I could find intelligent Texans discussion, and I think that it cheapens it if we don’t question ideas like “Sign Foster no matter what!”. It’s not about me being right or wrong, it’s about debating and trying to come up with a better answer or framework than just “Sign him yes/no”. That’s the type of logic that makes the Chron comments unbearable and it’s why most or all of us are here.
And Freedom – I want you to know I really have enjoyed going back and forth with you lately. I actually had a lot of fun going and looking up Denver’s stats, and researching contracts for other RB’s, and often times was surprised with what I found.
by Jason Brown on Feb 17, 2012 3:19 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Nicely said, Jason
I know we’re not going to agree on this one completely, but I hope the Texans organization does not use the RFA tender to lowball one of the best players they have ever had who has been playing for the league minimum. That doesn’t sound like a classy move nor the kind Bob McNair is going to allow.
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
by Still Blue on Feb 17, 2012 3:26 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with that
To me the RFA is more about protecting the team than getting him on the cheap. I wouldn’t do it to lowball him, and if there was a $3 or $4m option on it I would go for that too, but unfortunately we don’t have that choice. Sadly there isn’t really a way to say “we respect you but also want to cover our asses in case someone offers you stupid money”.
I think overall...
We, as fans, will end up trusting what the GM/coaches/owner do with the team in this off-season. I’d prefer seeing Arian on the sideline because I enjoy what he brings to the team(along with the quality play, he’s entertaining off the field, and brings GOOD attention to the team(not drug busts, prostitutes, etc.)). However, if the team doesn’t end up giving him his propers, I hope they at least find some way to acknowledge what he has done in his time here. It’d really tick me off if they just shipped him off without at least fighting for him. I’d hate to see the man used like one of the best backs in the league and not get any kind of decent compensation for it. Maybe throw 3 mil his way at least to say, we appreciate ya.
I've got nothin'...
Where we differ, I think, is that I believe creating a championship NFL team is as much art as science.
You need artists. Look at recent Super Bowls: big time plays—made and missed—decided the games.
I believe Foster is the kind of player who can win a game that might otherwise be lost because he will make those kinds of plays. He did it twice in 2011, against Pittsburgh and Atlanta. When the team had to have it, he was the guy they went to to get it. It is very difficult to put an empirical value on that kind of talent, but ISTM you want to be very reluctant to let it get away.
…and thanks for your thoughtful comments. I have enjoyed them.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
by FreedomRide on Feb 17, 2012 5:37 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
You make a very compelling argument
And I certainly did not mean to suggest we “sign him no matter what”. I just think the RB position on this particular team requires an elite player EXACTLY like Arian. I cannot emphasize enough how important he is to this team. The whole reason for my argument to sign him now is so that we can avoid the franchise tag (and thus pay him $7 mil), and start from a lower place ($4-5 mil a year) and negotiate up. Ending up at $6 mil a year, for example, is not bad. Obviously, you’d have to restructure other contracts and maybe let some others go. Let Mario go (unless he takes a paycut) and either cut or trade Demeco and OD (injury-prone), and you WOULD have the room to do it. Am I right?
And please don’t take what I say the wrong way, I also like this discussion and appreciate having this forum to do it.
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
the 1st round tender
protects us with a 1st round pick and allows us to match up to a reasonable number, like your $6M figure.
It comes after negotiating to see where he thinks he’s gonna sign and after a contract is not reached. So there’s not really a risk of offending him by the tender, I wouldn’t think. He’ll go into the FA period knowing approximately what we’ll match, and he’ll negotiate accordingly.
If we hardline him at $5 and he wants to stay, he should sign an offer sheet for $6 and come back to us and meet in the middle during the week we have to decide if we match.
But I think most agree he should stay on the team if he’s affordable. I don’t think that’s a question.
TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.
Coughlin definitely doesn't have a great system, per se
but he’s very good at preparing his team and making sure they practice their asses off.
"Lord, beer me strength."
They sure q
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
by HTown24 on Feb 17, 2012 1:46 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
typo, sorry.
I was going to say that they sure looked like a badly prepared team when they were 7-7 and had lost twice to the Redskins. I think the fact that they turned it around just in time to go on a 6 game run to win it all proves head coaches are more valuable in how they motivate their teams and keep them hungry even when things go bad, rather than the “system”. Parcells was also very good at getting teams mentally prepared.
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
by HTown24 on Feb 17, 2012 1:53 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Breaking news
as per NFP-
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Fosters-agent-wont-fret-over-franchise-tag.html
sounds good to me…
Thats pretty cool
I say do it lets Franchise him. I mean since he will be it anyways.
2012 1st round draft pick is...............
If they can't get a long-term deal worked out, it works for me
It’s not like he doesn’t deserve a little back pay anyways…
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
Where ya been, man?
Rectum!? Damn near killed 'em!!!
by theSpaceCityKid on Feb 16, 2012 4:34 PM CST up reply actions
Sign him long-term or tender him.
Why franchise him and then lose him next year with nothing in return?
The tender would be only a 1st round pick
The non-exclusive franchise tag could get us two 1st round picks, plus he’d be around $7.7 Mil for the year, which his agent would think that’s a good starting point for negotiations on a long term deal
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 4:48 PM CST up reply actions
Yes, but if he has another great year, the cost to sign him next year would shoot through the roof
I’d rather sign him long-term now, to something reasonable (not CJ2.0YPC money) and make him happy. And use the franchise tag on someone else.
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
Again, $7.7 Mil is a good starting point for Foster's contract negotiations
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 5:08 PM CST up reply actions
What's the starting point now?
He made $525K this past year. That seems like a better starting point, from the management’s perspective.
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
Based on production, $7 Mil is a fair starting point
4 years for anywhere between $24M to $28M would be a fair range. There’s no way he’s making less than $3 Million this year
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 5:20 PM CST up reply actions
I agree $7 mil is fair
But as you said, it’ a starting point. In negotiations, a starting point is never what becomes the ending point. If you start at $7 mil, they counter with 10, you may end up with $8.5 or somewhere in the middle and then it’s more than you could have paid had you not franchised him. If they offer him $5 mil a year now, they may counter with $8, and you end up at $6.5 or so, which is less than you starting point….and you save $2 mil a year. Again, I’m putting my GM hat on here.
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
by HTown24 on Feb 17, 2012 2:04 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
The highest RFA Tender
is $2.742M
I have not yet begun to defile myself.
The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC
Non-exclusive tag = Arian for one more year.
Then we have the same dilemma next year.
If’s he’s not willing to resign long-term now, let’s get a first rounder.
Agree, but trust me Arian would much rather sign NOW
No way he wants to risk having a down year or (God forbid) an injury and his FA stock goes down. He had a great playoffs and he’s at his best positon to negotiate now…and the team needs to sign him now because the opposite could happen. He could kick more ass and go for 2K yards and then it will be almost impossible to re-sign him at that point.
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
by HTown24 on Feb 17, 2012 2:11 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Arian's not the only available top running back....
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/16/no-progress-between-ravens-ray-rice/
"Lord, beer me strength."
Like the article says, the Giants or Patriots could be more than glad to give up the 31st or 32nd pick plus next year's 1st for Rice
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 4:51 PM CST up reply actions
That's the issue, I suppose.
There’s definitely a big difference between the 10th pick and the 30th pick. Gotta hope that if anybody wants him, it’s a really bad team.
They're both good teams, so next year's picks will probably be low too (not a low as ours, though :-)
I don’t think the Ravens will do that.
"Sometimes my ninjitsu styles come out when I don’t even want ‘em to,"—Antonio Smith.
I think the Lions would snatch up any RB of the Rice, Foster type if they could.
They have enough good draft picks, to drop some. They need proven vet’s now.
I'm a household name... at my house.
Michael Vick is the best throwing running back of all time.
My put your name on it prediction for the Housotn Texans.
10-6, with a first round playoff upset over either the Ravens or Steelers.
by taylorrohrman on Feb 16, 2012 7:42 PM CST up reply actions
Aren't they completely cap-fucked?
I don’t think they can afford anybody right now.
Some very interesting comments by Mario...
Ignore the hyperbole and focus on the quotes.
He sounds sincere.
I wonder how he’s going to evaluate our offer, though. He should look at Lamarr Woodley’s deal and say, “give me that, adjusted for inflation and a salary cap increase”. That would be doable. Unfortunately, he’s probably going to compare it to 2012 market price. And that won’t be doable.
These are the first comments I've seen from Mario that give me any hope he really wants to stay here.
I did not read his quotes as the typical smoke money chasing athletes spew in an effort not to look greedy. He sounds like he would really rather prefer to remain here so long as he gets a reasonable deal. Of course, what is reasonable becomes the question.
I am very encouraged by the fact that he specifically articulated he has already made a ton of money and that environmental factors (i.e. coaching, winning, etc) are important to him. I have more hope of him staying than I did before reading the article. That, at least, is a positive.
Wow, those are some very up-beat and happy-sounding comments from Mario.
He and his agent haven’t seen those zeroes yet, though.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
He does look awesome in Steel Blue.
I hope he’s back, but how much less is he willing to take? It seems just about every team in the league wants him. Pass rushers are highly valued for good reason.
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
That should probably tell us something
I have seen rumors of more than 13 different teams being interested in Mario, but only a couple (and even those are speculative) related to Foster. It has nothing to do with how good each player is, but all about how valuable the position is in the league today
Which is why I think Arian will be a better candidate for a long-term deal
and gives us more value in cap room used. Like Rivers noted the other day, Mario doesn’t stay healthy enough.
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
Yup. It will be a feeding frenzy for Mario.
Alas, if he he asked me if he should take an insane amount of money or stay comfy in Houston, I’d have to say, “Take the money, Mario.”
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
LOL
If I’m the Texans, I’m selling us to Mario as though we ARE the Google equivalent of the NFL.
Good coaching
Good ownership (Uncle Bob does what’s right by his players)
Excellent talent on both sides of the ball.
There may be 13 teams vying for talent like Mario’s but none of those 13 has all that the Houston Franchise has to offer.
#Texans2011 — Where reality and dreams collide!
~~ Fuzion
"This is a grown dog’s game. Ain’t no puppies out here." ~~ Cushing #56 to Antonio Smith #94
by BattleRedFan on Feb 19, 2012 11:20 PM CST up reply actions
All good reasons for him to stay,
but if he gets a Julius Peppers-sized offer that could end his financial worries forever, I am still going to say “Take it, Mario”.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
Well, it's partly that.
But also in large part because Arian is a RFA likely to be tendered with a first, whereas Mario is an UFA who can’t be franchised due to salary cap restraints.
Really jumped out at me.
"I was the first pick (2006), and I’ve already had everything I really wanted, so my biggest thing is to be in a good position, a good scheme, a good system and continuing my career. Hopefully, it works out.
CUT JACOBY JONES CUT JACOBY JONES CUT JACOBY JONES
CUT JACOBY JONES CUT JACOBY JONES CUT JACOBY JONES
CUT JACOBY JONES CUT JACOBY JONES CUT JACOBY JONES
CUT JACOBY JONES CUT JACOBY JONES CUT JACOBY JONES
CUT JACOBY JONES CUT JACOBY JONES CUT JACOBY JONES
by Carter Liles on Feb 16, 2012 10:04 PM CST up reply actions
completely random
but does anyone have any idea what happened to Shelly Smith? Is he a legitimate contender to push for a starting job on the oline? If he is, that saves us a draft pick in the 1st 3 rounds I think.
He could be down the line, but we still would need one more
As tough as Brisel is, he does have some injuries issues, & I’m not sold on Caldwell. Smith is a little flexible, but we could use one more guy that can play both at least two spots on the line
Murphy’s 20th Military Law:
If it’s stupid, but it works, it ain’t stupid
"Fuck em all. Go Texans."
by The Night Owl on Feb 16, 2012 6:38 PM CST up reply actions
Probably not starting job
but maybe depth this year. I could see Studdard getting the boot and Smith replacing him if healthy this year
I think
that foster and mario want that ring, and houston is in the position to offer that(doesn’t that sound nice? it just rolls off the tongue). they will get paid. cincy can offer all the money in the world, wrong scheme, even with foster, not a true contender. as for mario, the 5 games we saw him in were great. he looked like olb was his natural position. 5 sacks in 5 games. athletes want rings, and the texans have a team, finally, built to do that(again, sounds nice, huh?).
by HTown80 on Feb 17, 2012 1:15 AM CST via Android app reply actions
While I agree with most of what you said
I must disagree about Cincy + Foster not being a true contender. Cincy is good and with Foster they could make a run in the playoffs imo.
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
What would they do with Ced?
"All our lives we're taught to get in line. The ones who conform never discover." - Undrafted Free Agent and NFL Rushing Leader Arian Foster
Let him walk
That’s way he hits holes.
Per Rotoworld: “Among all backs who played at least half of their team’s snaps, free agent Cedric Benson tied for the lowest average in yards after contact.”
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/3139/cedric-benson
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
by Still Blue on Feb 17, 2012 3:19 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I could see Foster getting a $12M signing bonus (thanks for the last two years) and $40M over 6 years with $25M guaranteed
and if you back load it he could make the following:
2012 – $5M
2013 – $5M
2014 – $5M
2015 – $7M
2016 – $9M
2017 – $9M
Factoring in his bonus, his cap hit would be:
2012 – $7M
2013 – $7M
2014 – $7M
2015 – $9M
2016 – $11M
2017 – $11M
So they would definitely want to rework the last two years or trade/cut him in 2016 depending on his production and health at that point. This would give him a total package of $52M with $37M guaranteed (signing bonus plus guaranteed salary). That’s a solid package for an elite NFL RB without crippling the Texans budget.
And restructure the last two years if he is still healthy by then. The guaranteed pay is already covered by year 4 in case he falls off production and/or is hurt, and his cap hit isn’t all that bad.
by MeMongo on Feb 17, 2012 10:29 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
I would say you are "commtting"
How does this stack up with, let’s say, the RB from Carolina, DeAngelo Williams, who just got that crazy contract, or Chris Johnson?
DeAngelo Williams: Signed a five-year, $43 million contract. The deal contains $21 million guaranteed, including a $16 million signing bonus and $5 million of Williams’ second-year base salary. This equates to an average of $8.6 mill per year.
Chris Johnson: 6-year $55.26 million, with $30 mill guaranteed and $20 mill signing bonus. for an average of $9.215 mill per year.
The contract you outlined for Foster, in comparison: 6-year, $52 million contract. With $25 million guaranteed and a $12 million signing bonus. This equates to an average of $8.67 per year.
"All our lives we're taught to get in line. The ones who conform never discover." - Undrafted Free Agent and NFL Rushing Leader Arian Foster
Good comparisons
and I think it fits the general theme of the Texans front office. Arian won’t get CJ type money, but something near DeAngelo.
If that isn’t enough, we’ll tag him.
Someone should forward this to Mr. Smith
and Rick should give you job in the FO. Me likey.
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
Toss me in the "we need Foster" crowd...
There’s no way I would give up a known commodity in Arian Foster for a 1st round pick and cap space. With what Arian has provided this team for 2+ years, how can anyone say they’d be comfortable getting rid of him?
He has helped make the defenses of other teams have to load the box to contain him(and that doesn’t even work all the time). Given a quality #2 WR picked up in the draft, there’s no way the ball won’t be getting down the field with a healthy Schaub. Sign Meyers, sign Arian, sign Dreessen and let’s build upon what we have now which is a team that got to the divisional round of the playoffs.
Without Arian, you don’t get to the playoffs. It’s as simple as that.
I've got nothin'...
i hear ya, brother
and it’s not like Arian isn’t due. He’s been playing for the minimum in the shortest career position and he’s elevated this team. I trust in Bob to pay the man.
"Andre was the best player on the team in his prime and Watt may yet be, but Arian is right now." FreedomRide 2/9/2012 (QFT)
by Still Blue on Feb 17, 2012 3:30 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
It's cold, but I don't really care what he's "due".
I want to pay him because the Texans are more likely to win a title with him than without him, period.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
I agree with Steel Blue
Arian was a professional and played his best even with a “dirt cheap” contract. We DO owe him for alot of the success he brought us. He helped this team to win so that we can have bargaining chips with great players like Mario.
#Texans2011 — Where reality and dreams collide!
~~ Fuzion
"This is a grown dog’s game. Ain’t no puppies out here." ~~ Cushing #56 to Antonio Smith #94
by BattleRedFan on Feb 19, 2012 11:26 PM CST up reply actions
The defense says...
Don’t forget that the best season in franchise history came in the best defensive year in franchise history.
And that the only other winning season in franchise history came from the 2nd best defensive year.
Defense wins. It’s why Pittsburgh has been a contender fixture since the 1970s while other franchises go up and down.
"Lord, beer me strength."
Fair enough.
Doesn’t mean Arian wouldn’t be the difference in 2 games this year like he was last year, and 2 games is probably the margin between playoffs and no playoffs.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
No defense is good enough to keep another team to 0.
You still need an offense that is able to produce to be able to win games. The Texans defense was able to hold teams fairly well. A strong defense makes a running game much more viable. So, with a strong defense, you need a strong running game, IMO.
That’s not to say that Tate isn’t good enough to help the Texans win games. However, with Arian in the game, he’s able to be more productive in the red zone. That’s where it matters the most.
I've got nothin'...
Why don't we do what the Steelers
and restructure guys that have one year left on contract and drop them down to league minimum and take the difference due and give it as a signing bonus?
by bantams28 on Feb 17, 2012 1:03 PM CST via Android app reply actions
Signing bonus still hits the cap
There are 2 situations where you can make that work -
1) If you had leftover cap space from last year and do it at the right time you can make some (maybe all?) of that bonus count against last year. I’m not sure if we’ll see anyone do this since you can rollover cap space now from the previous year
2) You restructure to a longer deal so that signing bonus gets split up over several years. This can give you a year or two cheaper but costs more later. Sometimes that works though, just depends on the situation I guess
Questions?
Although I do agree with franchising #23, aren’t there other players on the roster other than the “Big 3” that are able to be restructured and/or franchised? How many players are under serious money contracts? Can the organization restructure other players contracts for years to come? I’m pretty sure it comes down to nickels and dimes…
When I think about it, everybody on the team gets paid. There are guys on the team who get paid huge, then there are the other guys.
I guess my point is why not reconstruct all the “little” guys contracts if that is possible, franchise #23, and go big on #90.
I am no way a capologist…I’m just asking questions, and looking for answers.
by Fastalkerus_Prime on Feb 18, 2012 5:04 AM CST via mobile reply actions
not a capologist either
but we get 3 $1.5M exceptions to the cap this year, and Mario ($16M cap hit) comes off the books.
I think we’re in good shape to bring back Foster and the OL, but Mario will have to want to come back. And by “want to” I mean, he’ll have to work within our constraints.
TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.

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