A few salary-cap tidbits

by Nashmeister on Feb 18, 2012 6:13 PM CST

I've never been able to find solid info on cap numbers, but I just stumbled upon Spotrac and snooped around for a few minutes. I'd recommend it to anybody who is curious about our cap situation. I'm not sure how accurate they are, but they certainly have more detailed information than Rotoworld. Looking at individual salaries though, I've gleaned a few things:

1) Andre really bent us over a barrel with that last contract. The final two years of his contract are going to cost us over $13 million in cap room each. Hopefully we're not talking about Andre's hamstrings in 2015 like we talked about Bagwell's shoulder in 2005.

2) Jacoby might have a bad agent. He got just over $3 million guaranteed, but his base salary in 2011 was under half a million. His base salary in 2012 and 2013 is near $5 million each year. My guess is that he won't ever see that money. We basically got a free year out of him in 2011 (though I suppose you could say he took revenge upon us).

3) Walter probably isn't getting cut. His cap hit is a manageable $3.5 million each of the next three years. This was a well-structured contract.

4) Cushing's rookie deal is backloaded (nearly a $6 million hit in 2013). He was a mid-round pick so it's not astronomical, but between good will and saving money in the long term, he very well might get an early extension. I certainly hope so, at least. Based on the look on his face when he was drafted initially, I fear that Houston might not be his first choice if he hits the open market.

5) OD was probably overpaid initially, but his 2013 and 2014 numbers are quite fair. If we can get through this season, he doesn't ever need to be a cap casualty.

6) I had hoped for an early Duane Brown extension, but his 2012 salary is just $1.3 million. I'm not sure a potential long-term discount is worth the difference of a 2012 raise.

I'm not sure if they're up-to-date on restructured contracts, and they're missing detailed info on our 2011 off-season acquisitions, but we seem to be in pretty good shape overall. There's really only one horrible contract (DeMeco) and one pretty bad one (Antonio Smith, despite solid production).

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Good stuff!

Thank God for football!

by BattleRedHusker on Feb 18, 2012 8:41 PM CST reply actions

Good work Nash

I’ve got similar thoughts on Brown – do you try to save more now or make sure he never hits free agency?

Antonio’s does seem high, even for the production we’re getting out of him. I wouldn’t be surprised to either see him restructured or we draft a DE higher than people are thinking this year

by Jason Brown on Feb 19, 2012 1:08 AM CST reply actions

Andre

A lot of contracts in the NFL are backloaded to basically force the team to renegotiate. I would not be surprised if Andre doesn’t see that money.

by battlered90 on Feb 19, 2012 10:38 AM CST reply actions

Good Observations

1. Andre will probably be renegotiated before the end of his contract, so I’m not too worried about those last two years.

2. Jacoby will be a 2.5 million salary cap hit if we cut him because the remainder of his prorated bonus will hit this year and he has guaranteed salary. So odds are he will still be on the team this year. I would rather see a trade of some type for Jacoby or have him cut after June 1, 2013.

3. Walter will probably also be asked to restructured.

4. Depending on Cushing’s performance the next two years he may receive the franchise tag in 2014

5. Dressen may leave for free agency and OD has had a lot work done on both knees. Casey will still play mainly FB and Graham has not shown anything. I would expect Kubiak to draft a TE within the first 4 rounds.

6. The big Franchise question for next year is about to be debated. Mario Williams won’t be resigned because of this years salary cap and next years unrestricted free agent class. Next year, the Texans will have to find a way to keep Conner Barwin, Duane Brown, Matt Schaub, and Shaun Cody(please no more charitable contracts).

7. Demeco Ryans, the human cyborg, will be asked to restructure his contract to help with the salary cap this year.

by GCWTexans on Feb 19, 2012 3:32 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

Jacoby only had a $450,000 bonus according to this site.

by willieboyd on Feb 20, 2012 10:41 AM CST up reply actions

Thank you Nashmeister

No outsiders have accurate cap information and I find that frustrating. Most of the contracts, and certainly all of the big ones, are more or less public information yet there is no definitive source on how each teem stands vs the cap. We all want to be Monday morning GM’s this time of the year, and caponomics is extremely complex even when armed with all of the requisite data. Without it it’s like rugby is to me, fascinating but I have no idea what the hell is going on.

I keep hearing Pancakes drone on how the Texans are $20 Million over the cap, and it will be an absolute miracle if both Mario and Arian are on the team next year. We also hear multiple talking heads tell us that there are several teams that have so much cap space that they can make offers that the Texans could never match.

The Texans have gotten over the hump of mediocrity by amassing a wealth of talented players. This is a great thing, but with it comes an annual exercise full of tough decisions. Renegotiating and extending as was done with Dre twice cannot be done with everyone who is due every year. We fans would like to see all of our key contributors never leave H Town, but unless they all agree to take less than their market value, we will have to say goodbye to some of them. This year it is Mario, Arian, Meyers, Brisiel & Dreesen. Next year it is Duane Brown, Connor Barwin, Matt Schaub and probably a few others.

Drafting well is the best way to relaod because draftees are pennies on the dollar compared to established vets. If we can continue to draft the way we did last year, then the puzzle becomes much easier to manage. We still have to say sayonara to a few favorites every year, but most if not all of the true stars can be retained.

What to do now? I agree that Jacoby’s $4.94 Mil is low hanging fruit. Who else? Leinart at $3 Million is unnecessary. He was not impressive in the half game he played this year. Is this the year we play hardball with Cap’n Meco. Not ask but demand that he restructure? Cody is in his last year, he could be restructured or replaced if we draft the right player. How about Schaub? Maybe we can lower his cap figure with a creative extension?

Don’t know what’s gonna happen over the next few months but am hanging on every shred of information. Thanks again for the source.

It took the Astros 44 years to get to the Series, the Oilers-Texans are OVERDUE to get to the playoffs, much less the big big dance...Go Texans!!!!!

by oiler-texan diehard on Feb 19, 2012 5:32 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

Don't look for Dre, Brown or schaub to go anywhere...... We have to have them to be playoff successful

Doin stuff so nasty that you have to do it twice to confirm the level of nasty!!

by TEXSON on Feb 20, 2012 10:40 AM CST reply actions

My view

We’re $23M under for 2012 right now.

Cuts:

Jacoby could be cut for a $4M savings according to this site. = -$27M
Leinart could be cut for a $3M saving. = -$30M

Signings:

Mario gets an evenly disbursed $14 Million for 5 years= -$16M
Foster gets an evenly disbursed $7M for 4 years = -$8M
Myers gets an evenly disbursed $3M for 3 years = -$5M
Brisiel gets an evenly disbursed $2M for 3 years = -$3M
Dreessen and Rackers get the rest = $0M

Possible Restructure (for emergency relief this year):

Give OD his $6.5M as a $6M bonus and a $500k base salary ($6M/3 + 500k = $2.5M this year) to save $4M this year.

2013:

Schaub’s cap hit won’t be too much higher.
Duane Brown and Barwin will be paid by Cody’s expiring $2.25M, moving around or cutting Antonio’s $6M and Demeco’s $6.8M and backloading contracts until after the new TV money comes in.

Conceivable?

by willieboyd on Feb 20, 2012 11:08 AM CST reply actions

oops forgot to re-calcuate after adusting numbers

after Arian = -$9M
after Myers = -$6M
after Brisiel = -$4M
Dreessen and Rackers fight over $4M

by willieboyd on Feb 20, 2012 11:13 AM CST up reply actions

I think you low-balled Myers.

And there’s not much you can do about DeMeco’s contract. Restructuring very rarely means taking less money overall, and his is fairly evenly distributed over the next several years. Oh, and I think the last thing you want to do is push that money further back. New TV money or not, we’re going to have a lot of guys under big contracts by the middle of the decade.

Right now we’re pretty fortunate in that a lot of our production is coming from guys on their rookie contracts. Our best bet would be to frontload the contracts right now, in my opinion. Do away with the Mario signing and give Foster and Myers big 2012 base salaries so that their cap numbers aren’t enormous when they’re ticking at the same time as Duane Brown’s, Cushing’s, and Schaub’s two or three years down the road.

by Nashmeister on Feb 20, 2012 11:57 AM CST up reply actions

Myers is niche talent for offensive lineman. I think that my estimation may be a little low, but we should have most of the leverage in that negotiation. Rumors are already circulating that Myers will not be retained.

Demeco can and, barring a remarkable return to form, will be forced to take a lower salary or be outright cut.

I agree with front loading contracts, but Myers doesn’t deserve too much more than I gave him. Schaub is not going to get a huge increase in his 2012 cap number of $8M, again he like Myers is niche talent that would not cause a bidding war, IMO. Cushing’s FA is too far ahead to sacrifice Mario for.

Overall do we agree, based on the numbers from this site, that signing both Mario and Foster this year will not mortgage our future? If not, can you throw out some numbers to show me what kind of salaries you see Mario, Foster and Myers getting?

Thanks for the intelligent reply.

by willieboyd on Feb 20, 2012 12:39 PM CST up reply actions

if we have $30M

I think we can def afford all three.

Did you take into account our $8M in dead money in this calculation?

TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.

by texanphil on Feb 22, 2012 10:10 AM CST up reply actions

Sportrac estimates we will be $23 million under after the expirings.

The -$4M for cutting Jacoby (figured by me) is wrong, but the -$3M for cutting Leinart is probably accurate. I think -$26M is pretty accurate.

MDC said the best estimate right now is we are $6M under. Subtract Mario’s and Myer’s contracts (while adding escalating contracts) and the -$23M at the start of FA still looks fairly accurate.

TL:DR: I didn’t do the calculations, but it seems accurate.

by willieboyd on Feb 22, 2012 12:20 PM CST up reply actions

I’m skeptical of the $23M number. I think we’re probably in the teens.

The spotrac estimate already removes Mario and Myers, but I don’t see the $8M of dead money in there. I don’t know if it should be there, but this guy thinks so, so worst case scenario you must take it into account.

TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.

by texanphil on Feb 22, 2012 2:17 PM CST up reply actions

You could be right. I’m definitely not investing the time to find out. lol

by willieboyd on Feb 22, 2012 5:59 PM CST up reply actions

After looking at you link...

he has us for $6M in room next year, that has to be before the contracts expire (which is what Gil Brandt has us at now, too), so…

Start -$6M
Mario Williams $15M = -$21M
Derek Ward $1.75M = -$22.75M
Chris Myers, C $3.5M = -$26.25M
Neil Rackers, K $2.15M = -$28.4M
Jason Allen $1.23M = -$29.63M
Dreessen $1.22M = -$30.85M

I really think we will have at least $23M in room.

by willieboyd on Feb 22, 2012 6:17 PM CST up reply actions

no, Mario and Myers aren't included in that $6M

2012 Dead Money: $7,860,000
2012 Projected Total Salaries: $88,244,720
2012 Projected Total Bonuses: $18,218,979
2012 Projected Cap Space: $6,051,301

the 2012 Projected Salaries + Bonuses + Dead Money = our cap situation. Mario and Myers don’t have 2012 projected salaries.

But then Walterfootball thinks we have $25M, so its all over the map.

I think we’ll have somewhere between $1M and $35M to spend in FA. I feel comfortable with that range.

TJ must throw 30 times for us to win.

by texanphil on Feb 23, 2012 3:56 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Texanphil

has made the biggest gamble ever… Here is your reward. /lackofboldnesstrophy

lol just messin with you and you $34mil cap space difference lol

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by Taco Joe on Feb 28, 2012 3:54 PM CST up reply actions

Also....

New TV money or not, we’re going to have a lot of guys under big contracts by the middle of the decade.

Who?

Watt and Duane Brown look like top five money at their, very expensive, positions.

Cushing would probably be top 5 money right now, but his style of play may shorten his career or hamper his production. It’s not a stretch to think he may not be top 5 in 2014. He really hasn’t really shown too much consistency yet.

Barwin won’t be a huge contract because he isn’t really a DE and if we resign Mario, his sack numbers won’t be all that impressive.

Arian should be easy to resign for $6-7M per season, Schaub will be cheap for his production ($7-8M per season; he has much more value to us than to anyone else, IMO).

Really we only have Watt, Brown, and maybe Cushing due for really big contracts. Cushing is in 2014 and Watt doesn’t come up until 2015.

by willieboyd on Feb 20, 2012 1:25 PM CST up reply actions

Winston and Antonio Smith are up in 2014.

I’m guessing Schaub gets somewhere in the $10 million per year range, too. His initial deal was signed a while back and he was unproven; if he stays relatively healthy in 2012, he’ll get a sizable deal, short-term deal.

Then you’ve got a bunch of other contributors who aren’t going to work for the league minimum; guys like Quin and McCain. Hell, look at what we paid Jacques Reeves; anybody capable of playing CB at this level can haul in $4-5 million annually on the open market.

Assuming you re-sign most of your young starters and QB, I’m guessing you’ll have the follow contracts on the books at some point:

Schaub: $10 million (hypothetical extension)
Andre: $10 million (and it only escalates from there)
Joseph: $10 million
DeMeco: $8 million
Cushing: 8 million
Brown: $8 million
Foster: $7 million
Winston: $7 million (hypothetical extension)
Myers: $5 million
Manning: $5 million
OD: $4.5 million
Quin: $4 million
Walter: $3.5 million
McCain: $3 million
Brisiel: $2 million

That’s about $95 million. It doesn’t include dead money, Antonio Smith, Barwin, Mario, Dreessen, Wade Smith, Kareem (yea, yea), Casey, swing tackle, kicker, 3rd receiver, 3rd safety (Nolan and Demps both expire this off-season, I believe), NT, rookies, and our entire remaining depth chart.

Even if you filled out your remaining roster with all league-minimum players, your high draft picks would still put you well over the current cap of $120 million. If I were Rick Smith, I’d have to be 100% certain that the cap would increase by about $20 million before I considered re-signing Mario.

by Nashmeister on Feb 20, 2012 2:26 PM CST up reply actions

It's all too difficult to keep track of with contracts expiring in different years, though...

I think I might put together a spreadsheet some time this week to get a better feel for it.

by Nashmeister on Feb 20, 2012 2:44 PM CST up reply actions

Nice list.

We’re definitely going to have to commit to our core guys going forward and then fill in the rest with the draft rather than resign all our free agents (i.e. Quin and McCain).

Considering that, I’d rather let Winston, DeMeco and Myers go and resign Mario. We don’t need high priced offensive linemen.

Like I said, I agree about Quin and McCain, they are only here because they’re cheap. When their contracts are up, we probably won’t be able to resign them. That’s where the rookie contracts come in (paging Brandon Harris).

After next season, I would commit to something like this:

QB: Schaub $10 million (hypothetical extension)
RB: Foster $7 million (hypothetical extension)
FB: Rookie contract/Cheap guy
WR1: Andre $10 million
WR2: Rookie contract/Cheap guy
WR3: Rookie contract/Cheap guy
TE: Rookie contract/Cheap guy
LT: Brown: $8 million (hypothetical extension)
LG: Rookie contract/Cheap guy
C: Rookie contract/Cheap guy
RG: Rookie contract/Cheap guy
RT: Rookie contract/Cheap guy

$35 million to four core offensive players.

A whole offensive line of either young guys or cheap guys? Yep, that’s what we have now. Kubes has shown he can make the o-line work with lower tier talent. A young or cheap WR2? Again, this offense can be top 5 offense with a Kevin Walter-type at WR2, we ha done it three times in a row and we were on pace for a fourth before Schaub went down.

DE: Watt 3 million (technically a Rookie contract/Cheap guy)
NT: Rookie contract/Cheap guy (Mitchell?)
DE: Rookie contract/Cheap guy (Need a 1st rounder here because a cheap vetern starter doesn’t exist.)
WOLB: Mario 12 million (hypothetical extension)
SOLB: Barwin 5 million (hypothetical extension)
ILB: Cushing 6 million
ILB: Rookie contract/Cheap guy (Sharpton?)
CB1: Joseph: $10 million
CB2: Someone good $8 million
CB3: Rookie contract/Cheap guy (Harris?)
FS: Rookie contract/Cheap guy
SS: Rookie contract/Cheap guy

44 million to six core defensive players.

Two young guys at safety is scary, but I offset that with an $8 million CB2.

Overall that would be 79 million to 10 core players. That means we would have 42 million for the other 43 players (with a $121 million cap), which is about right to fill out the roster.

by willieboyd on Feb 20, 2012 6:15 PM CST up reply actions

Completely agree on this bit:

DE: Rookie contract/Cheap guy (Need a 1st rounder here because a cheap vetern starter doesn’t exist.)

DE is vital in this system; Antonio Smith’s ability to collapse the pocket was a major part of our success last season. I’d hate to let him go, but he’s aging and already on a big contract. If he were willing to agree to a 2-3 year extension at $5 million per year, I’d keep him around. Otherwise, time to start grooming a replacement. I think Jared Crick would be perfect in the first round this year.

I’m not sure about the offense line, though. Tackle is a position that falls outside the “plug-and-play” ZBS. I don’t think you can let Winston walk unless Derek Newton really blows everyone away in training camp. I remain clueless on how they’ll handle the Myers negotiations, but Denver kept Tom Nalen around for 15 years. Regardless of your scheme, letting offensive linemen walk without capable replacements is the quickest way to start losing again.

I’m also frightened of letting our safeties walk after watching… Well, nine years of incompetence at the position. Not to mention, both safeties, both TEs, and Brisiel are better than replacement level. If our franchise’s dismal history has taught us anything, it’s that quality players are hard to find. When I look at those positions, there’s not a single OG (potentially Caldwell, but he looks really bad every time he gets in the game), C, RT, safety, or WR under contract who seems primed to take over a starting job. That means that over the next few years, they have to pull an additional starter from every draft or hit on a cheap gem in free agency to make up for the low- to mid-range salaried players that they let go.

I suppose it comes down to whether you think it’s easier to replace the production of one great player versus four good players.

by Nashmeister on Feb 20, 2012 7:42 PM CST up reply actions

Good points.

I’m definitely swinging back toward the “don’t resign Mario” side.

I still want him back, but it has to be a Texan friendly contract.

by willieboyd on Feb 21, 2012 2:33 PM CST up reply actions

There were afew things I had a disagreement about.. Id like to hear other’s opinions on this though.

1) I dont believe we are bent over a barrel at all. Johnson’s last extension likely guaranteed earlier money through these next couple of years. Granted this is a guess on my part, but I feel pretty safe in it. More than likely, Johnson will see a restructure before the 2015 season. 2015 and 2016 (maybe 2017) will be guaranteed dollars, the rest will be play money and it will contain low signing bonus. Remember if he played through this contract he’d be hitting 35 or 36 years old, and I doubt the Texans would cut him, so the restructure with no salary cap would give AJ the most money without hurting the Texans when he retires (his non-guaranteed money would come off the books, but we’d still be held for his bonus).

2. I believe, if sportrac is correct, that Jacoby’s terms went like this.
Year 1 – 470,000 unguaranteed salary plus 450,000 signing bonus = 920,000
Year 2 – 3M guaranteed salary plus 1.791M unguaranteed salary.
Year 3 – 4.71 unguaranteed salary.

This again, is my opinion but is the most common sense option. Theres no reason why Jacoby’s agent would want the first year base of 470K guarenteed, so the low base+signing bonus gets Jacoby a near double bump in pay for 2011, and keeps the Texans at a pretty cap number. Year 2/Year 3 could see some sort of split between guaranteed money, but my guess is it all kicks in this year. Regardless, the guaranteed money built into the deal gives the Texans no reason to cut him this year, and earns Jacoby the near 5 million dollar salary.

The guaranteed 3 million would automatically goto Jacoby, plus hit the Texans cap in addition to the 300K left. So a 3.3M cap hit on a 4.7M contract isnt going to buy the Texans much.

3) Walter is a prime candidate to get cut for one reason. His salary does not contain a signing bonus, and would lead to a full cap savings for the Texans. By what I read, Walter was guaranteed 11M, but that was 2010 salary plus bonus and 2011 only. This ends up being a great contract for the Texans if they are in need of extra money.

4) Cushing’s potential cap hit in his final year will drop by near a million if not more. He lost 800,000 by not making the Pro Bowl and could lose an additional 500,000 or so if he doesnt make the PB next year.

5) I found the Daniels contract to be really interesting, to be honest. It looks like the Texans gave OD more money early (including one of the first two years guaranteed), but there was no signing bonus so the Texans protected themselves if OD continued to have knee problems as he wouldnt have cost the Texans anything past the guaranteed money on the cap.

6) This part I agree with. Brown’s salary is so low its going to be hard to give Brown any sort of signing bonus and not see his 2012 cap number go through the roof. Now the question is, would Brown be willing to take a lower signing bonus with more guaranteed money? The Texans could keep his base at or around his current number, and give him a big 2013/2014 bump full of guarantees, but i think this is only going to come when the Texans finish working with Arian and Mario and see what their situation really is.

by GatorTD on Feb 20, 2012 5:16 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

About #2.

That Jacoby contract info is confusing. I probably was wrong earlier in my post when I said cutting him would save $4M.

by willieboyd on Feb 20, 2012 6:23 PM CST up reply actions

Quick point re: Cushing/Brown

Per the new CBA, you cannot renegotiate or extend their contracts.

I have not yet begun to defile myself.

The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC

by MDC on Feb 21, 2012 2:09 PM CST reply actions

Counterpoint

I thought I read that rule was only for players who had not completed 3 NFL seasons.

by GatorTD on Feb 21, 2012 3:55 PM CST up reply actions

Oh, wait.

I stand corrected. It’s a separate clause in the new CBA.

I have not yet begun to defile myself.

The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC

by MDC on Feb 21, 2012 4:13 PM CST up reply actions

The Two-Day Hangover @ Battle Red Blog (2011) & SBN Houston (2010) | Twitter | About MDC

by MDC on Feb 23, 2012 8:47 AM CST up reply actions

John Clayton says we have $3.3 million right now (actually Feb. 13th).

The Houston Texans and San Diego Chargers didn’t have enough remaining room to push money over into 2012, so Houston has $3.3 million of cap space and San Diego has $9.2 million.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7570116/nfl-plenty-cap-room-improve

We should have over $26 million in expiring contracts.

by willieboyd on Feb 22, 2012 7:08 PM CST reply actions