FanPost

How the Texans will finish the season

There is a saying in the NFL it's not who you play but when you play them, implying that a various times of the season, teams are stronger or weaker depending on injuries or recent acquisitions by signing free agents or perhaps by trade.

I disagree. An organization named Cold Hard Facts several years ago came up with a formula to determine which games a team would have a better chance of losing and therefore how a team would finish based on the number of QUALITY OPPONENTS it had to face in a season. A QUALITY OPPONENT is defined as a team who currently (after week 7) has a record above .500 and who down the road would be almost certain losses for lousy teams and could even result in losses for good teams especially if they were played on the road (for example Denver losing to Indy this past Sunday). And as you might have suspected by now a team with fewer QUALITY OPPONENTS remaining on its schedule has a better chance to win more of its remaining 9-10 games.

Here's how it breaks down for the Texans:

Houston currently sits at 2-5. It has 4 QUALITY OPPONENTS remaining on its schedule, the Colts twice, the Patriots and the Broncos. If they win one of these 4 games it will be an achievement given how the team is playing now and the disarray at the QB position. I could also see the Texans losing the last game of the year in Tennessee. That's at least 4 more losses for the season and a 7-9 record.

Finally here are my projected final standings for the AFC based on the current record of a team and the number of QUALITY OPPONENTS it has left:

1 Denver Broncos (6-1)---------------------13-3 (5 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

2 New England Patriots (5-2)---------------12-4 (1 QUALITY OPPONENT)

3 Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)-----------------11-5 (beat the Colts) (3 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

4 Indianapolis Colts (5-2)-----------------11-5 (loss to the Bengals)(2 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

WC:

5 Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)-----------------12-4 (5 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

6 New York Jets (4-3)----------------------10-6 (2 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

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