FanPost

Chances of trading back and still getting a good QB

To start with I looked up the passer rating for this year, and looked at the top 20 QB's based on that. Then I recorded the year, draft round, and how many other QB's were drafted ahead of them in that year. I separated them into the top 10 and next 10. I found the results to be quite interesting.

Top 10

Foles.................2012...........Round 3,...........7th QB taken

Manning...........1998............Round 1,...........1st QB taken

McCown...........2002............Round 3,...........4th QB taken

Rivers...............2004............Round 1,...........2nd QB taken

Rodgers...........2005............Round 1,...........2nd QB taken

Brees................2001............Round 2,...........2nd QB taken

Wilson..............2012.............Round 3,..........6th QB taken

Romo................2003............UDFA,...............13 QB's drafted

Big Ben.............2004............Round 1,...........3rd QB taken

Kapaernik.........2011............Round 2,...........6th QB taken

Observations on top 10...

-only Manning was the first QB taken in his draft year, but 4 taken in round 1. Out of past ten years, draft years '06,'07,'09, and '10 are not represented.

Next 10:

Bradford,,,,,,,,,,,2010,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Round 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,1st taken

Ryan,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2008..............Round 1,.............1st taken

Cutler...............2006...............Round 1,.............3rd taken

Smith................2005...............Round 1,.............1st taken

Dalton...............2011...............Round 2,.............5th taken

Newton.............2011...............Round 1,.............1st taken

Brady.................2000...............Round 6,.............7th taken

Luck...................2012...............Round 1,.............1st taken

Stafford..............2009...............Round 1,.............1st taken

Palmer...............2003...............Round 1,.............1st taken

Observations on second 10, A lot more 1st rounders, and 1st overall QB taken. Some of these guys (Brady for sure) belong higher, but just had an off year statistically.

Overall observations: We definitely want to select a QB in the first 3 rounds, preferably in the 1st or 2nd, but you probably don't need the first QB taken in the draft.

How many of us would be happy if we drafted the next Bradford, Ryan, Cutler, Smith, or Cam Newton? If you wouldn't be, then this list would indicate you will probably be disappointed with our draft this year.

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