If there's one thing we've come to expect from Rick Smith in the draft, it's the unexpected (and initially ungratifying).
- Duane Brown was picked too early;
- Cushing was an "injury-prone juicemonkey";
- Kareem Jackson was picked too early;
- JJ Watt shouldn't have been picked with Fairley, Quinn, and Amukamara still available.
Basically, if you listen to this board after the first round draft pick by the Texans each year, you'd think Rick Smith was a moron. Over the last 5 years though, Smith has been a bit of a genius. His picks might not be great out of the gate, but aside from last year's pick (Whitney Mercilus), all are now anchors for this franchise.
So what is Rick Smith doing right? I don't know, because if I did, I'd be making a ton of money and keeping this information to myself! Here's what I suspect, though. Over the last 5 years, Smithiak has shown a tendency to draft with near future needs in mind:
Year |
1st Rd Pick |
Possible Departing Player (PDP) |
PDP’s Free Agency Year |
2008 |
Duane Brown |
2009 |
|
2009 |
2009 |
||
2010 |
Kareem Jackson |
2010 |
|
2011 |
JJ Watt |
2012 |
|
2012 |
Whitney Mercilus |
2013 |
This is important not because it helps us determine which player Rick Smith will pick. No, no, no. We'll still be flabbergasted by that. But at least we can get a pretty good idea of what position he'll be drafting (and knowing that is half the battle). Considering how well rounded this franchise has become in the last two or three years, this is a big help because it's not like we're drafting for obvious, glaring needs. Now we're drafting BPA to fill middling needs. So with this in mind, we need to be considering 2014 free agents when identifying needs in the draft. Here is the list of upcoming Texans free agents in the 2013 and 2014 offseason:
Position |
2013 FAs |
2014 FAs |
% Turnover If None Signed |
RB (3) |
67% |
||
FB/TE (4) |
50% |
||
OG (4) |
|
25% |
|
OT (4) |
|
25% |
|
DE (4) |
|
Antonio Smith |
25% |
DT (3) |
67% |
||
ILB (5) |
Brian Cushing |
60% |
|
|
|
|
|
OLB (5) |
Connor Barwin |
40% |
|
CB (6) |
|
17% |
|
SS (3) |
|
33% |
|
K (1) |
|
100% |
|
P (1) |
|
100% |
Running Back and OLB are both positions of concerns, but may be addressed by resigning some of our own free agents this year. Even if Brooks Reed moves to inside linebacker, we have a lot of concerns for the ILB position past 2014. Most glaringly though, we have problems at DT, which will be further inflamed by the possible loss of situational DT Antonio Smith and full-time DT Earl Mitchell both being free agents (especially considering Shaun Cody is not likely to be viewed as a starting option going forward...we hope).
Considering both the need for additional talent at ILB and DT as well as potential personnel losses at that position this season and next, I have to figure that both get addressed in the first three rounds. If I had to pick one though, I'd say we go for a DT in Round 1 to cushion against the possible loss of Antonio Smith next year in addition to providing a looooong overdue talent infusion at the position. It's probably hopeless #NTlust, I know.
So, given our current and future Free Agents listed above, as well as my crude stab at what influences Rick Smith's decision-making, does this change what positions you want addressed in this draft and in what rounds you want them addressed?