The first thing that struck me when I researched these numbers is that Randy Moss was amazing. He posted over 1,300 yards and 17 touchdowns as a rookie and maintained that steady production for most of his career. As you'll see, no one comes close to that in this list.
|Name||Year||Pick Used||GP||REC / TGTS||YDS||TD|
|Justin Blackmon||2012||5||16||64 / 133||865||5|
|Michael Floyd||2012||13||16||45 / 86||562||2|
|Kendall Wright||2012||20||15||64 / 104||626||4|
|A.J. Jenkins||2012||30||0||-- / --||--||--|
|A.J. Green||2011||4||15||65 / 116||1057||7|
|Julio Jones||2011||6||13||54 / 96||959||8|
|Jonathan Baldwin||2011||26||11||21 / 52||254||1|
|Demaryius Thomas||2010||22||10||22 / 39||283||2|
|Dez Bryant||2010||24||12||45 / 72||561||6|
|Darrius Heyward-Bey||2009||7||11||9 / 40||124||1|
|Michael Crabtree||2009||10||11||48 / 86||625||2|
|Jeremy Maclin||2009||19||15||56 / 91||773||4|
|Percy Harvin||2009||22||15||60 / 91||790||6|
|Hakeem Nicks||2009||29||14||47 / 75||790||6|
|Kenny Britt||2009||30||16||42 / 75||701||3|
|Calvin Johnson||2007||2||15||48 / 95||756||4|
|Ted Ginn Jr.||2007||9||16||34 / 71||420||2|
|Dwayne Bowe||2007||23||16||70 / 117||995||5|
|Robert Meachem||2007||27||14||12 / 20||289||3|
|Craig Davis||2007||30||14||20 / 34||188||1|
|Anthony Gonzalez||2007||32||13||37 / 51||576||3|
Of course, each player joins a team under vastly different circumstances, and we see vastly different results. With the Texans owning the 27th pick in the first round, they would be ecstatic to find a receiver that can produce similar numbers to Hakeem Nicks or Percy Harvin in his first year. Unfortunately, the Texans could just as easily wind up with the next Anthony Gonzalez or Jonathan Baldwin.
The point is, while our hypothetical first round wide receiver might develop into a stud, we won't know what to expect out of him the first year. With the only other receivers not named Andre Johnson on the roster worth mentioning being Keshawn Martin and Lestar Jean, the WR2 spot might be a carousel of futility for one more year if the front office doesn't get it right.
Eerily similar numbers that mean absolutely nothing:
Kevin Walter's average stats with Houston (7 years): 46.5 rec / 583 yds / 3.4 tds
Average stats of rookies listed above: (21 players): 41.1 rec / 581 yds / 3.5 tds
Looking at this list, are you encouraged or discouraged with the possibility of the Texans taking a receiver in the first? How important will his first year production be to the success of the team overall? Sound off in the comments… and someone let me know who the heck Craig Davis is.