2013 NFL Draft: What Can The Texans Expect From A First Round Receiver?

Is Clemson WR DeAndre Hopkins the answer for the Texans? - Mike Ehrmann

The move from college football to the NFL for a wide receiver is considered one of the harder transitions for rookies- right up there with quarterback and cornerback. With the Texans possibly taking a receiver with the 27th pick, let history be our guide as we take a look back on rookie receivers taken in the first round.

The first thing that struck me when I researched these numbers is that Randy Moss was amazing. He posted over 1,300 yards and 17 touchdowns as a rookie and maintained that steady production for most of his career. As you'll see, no one comes close to that in this list.

Rookie Stats For First Round Wide Receivers 2007-2012
Name Year Pick Used GP REC / TGTS YDS TD
Justin Blackmon 2012 5 16 64 / 133 865 5
Michael Floyd 2012 13 16 45 / 86 562 2
Kendall Wright 2012 20 15 64 / 104 626 4
A.J. Jenkins 2012 30 0 -- / -- -- --
A.J. Green 2011 4 15 65 / 116 1057 7
Julio Jones 2011 6 13 54 / 96 959 8
Jonathan Baldwin 2011 26 11 21 / 52 254 1
Demaryius Thomas 2010 22 10 22 / 39 283 2
Dez Bryant 2010 24 12 45 / 72 561 6
Darrius Heyward-Bey 2009 7 11 9 / 40 124 1
Michael Crabtree 2009 10 11 48 / 86 625 2
Jeremy Maclin 2009 19 15 56 / 91 773 4
Percy Harvin 2009 22 15 60 / 91 790 6
Hakeem Nicks 2009 29 14 47 / 75 790 6
Kenny Britt 2009 30 16 42 / 75 701 3
Calvin Johnson 2007 2 15 48 / 95 756 4
Ted Ginn Jr. 2007 9 16 34 / 71 420 2
Dwayne Bowe 2007 23 16 70 / 117 995 5
Robert Meachem 2007 27 14 12 / 20 289 3
Craig Davis 2007 30 14 20 / 34 188 1
Anthony Gonzalez 2007 32 13 37 / 51 576 3

Of course, each player joins a team under vastly different circumstances, and we see vastly different results. With the Texans owning the 27th pick in the first round, they would be ecstatic to find a receiver that can produce similar numbers to Hakeem Nicks or Percy Harvin in his first year. Unfortunately, the Texans could just as easily wind up with the next Anthony Gonzalez or Jonathan Baldwin.

The point is, while our hypothetical first round wide receiver might develop into a stud, we won't know what to expect out of him the first year. With the only other receivers not named Andre Johnson on the roster worth mentioning being Keshawn Martin and Lestar Jean, the WR2 spot might be a carousel of futility for one more year if the front office doesn't get it right.

***

Eerily similar numbers that mean absolutely nothing:

Kevin Walter's average stats with Houston (7 years): 46.5 rec / 583 yds / 3.4 tds

Average stats of rookies listed above: (21 players): 41.1 rec / 581 yds / 3.5 tds

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Looking at this list, are you encouraged or discouraged with the possibility of the Texans taking a receiver in the first? How important will his first year production be to the success of the team overall? Sound off in the comments… and someone let me know who the heck Craig Davis is.

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