FanPost

Trading the First Pick

As a refugee from the Crawfish Boxes, I am newly arrived at the BRB and find myself looking for fun pursuits while waiting for pitchers and catchers to report, the combine, the Senior Bowl and the Rockets to get over their injuries so they can jell and get on a roll by playoff time. I see great disputes about whom the Texans should take and even some suggestions that they trade the pick. So I went to the internet and found what purports to be "the chart teams use when making trades, giving a numerical value to each draft choice." It seems it would be hard to play GM without it. Pick 1-1 is valued at 3000 points, 1500 times pick 7-32(2points).

The high value for 1-1 is extraordinary. For instance, if a team had the 4th pick in each round it could offer its entire draft for the 1-1 and it would be short value by 231.2 points, approximately the value of pick 3-8. Ok, so who has enough points to make a pure draft choice trade with the Texans? St. Louis, Jacksonville and Cleveland do.

So how about J-ville? If the Texans ship 1-1, 5-1 (43 points) and 7-1 (14.2), J-ville gets 3057.4 value points. If the Texans get 1-3(2200), 2-7(510), 3-6(240) and 4--5(96) and 7-3(13.4) they get a total of 3059.4 value points, a difference of 2 points (7-32).

How about Cleveland? If Cl sends the Texans 1-4(1800), 1-26(700) and 2-3(550), the Texans get 3050 value points. If the Texans send Cleve 1-1 (3000), 5-1(43) and 7-1(14.2), the Browns get 3057.4, a difference of 7.4 points (the value of 7-18). Maybe Cleve would need to throw in their 7th or 6th next year to even it out.

How about StL? If StL sends the Texans 1-2(2600), 2-12(460) and 7-11(10.2) the Texans get 3070.2 value points. If the Texans send StL 1-1(3000) 5-1(43) and 6-1(27), StL gets 3070 value points. Fairly even.

I would do any of those deals. I have not heard/read that any player is a sure thing as the 1-1. Obviously the Texans would need to hope that someone has decided there is such a guy that they must have. My favorite is Cleveland because then I got to play some more. First I trade 1-4 and 4-1(total 1912) to Minnesota for 1-8,2-8, and 7-8(total 1911.4). Then I trade 1-26 and 2-3(total 1250 points) to Tennessee for 1-11(1250 total points).

My draft then looks like:1-8: OLB's Barr or Mack depending on availability and team assessment (a pick that is the equivalent of picking up a 2nd round pick as Brooks moves inside); 1-11: Nix; 2-1 OG's C. Richardson or Sua'Filo again depending on assessment and availability; 2-8: numerous choices i.e the running back from out in AZ, Skov if they're worried about Cushing, A Richardson if they are still worried about OT etc.; and 3-1: the top QB remaining on the Texans board.

Do your own trade. Kill some time. Have some fun

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