What value is there in a first overall QB selection in the NFL Draft? The only way to truly answer the question is to look back at the last decade to make an honest and true assessment of the QB talent drafted in the first round.
Starting with the 2003 NFL Draft, the following quarterbacks were taken 1st overall: Carson Palmer (2003), Eli Manning (2004) - traded to NY Giants in exchange for Philip Rivers plus draft picks, Alex Smith (2005), JaMarcus Russell (2007), Matthew Stafford (2009), Sam Bradford (2010), Cam Newton (2011), Andrew Luck (2012).
That list seems pretty prolific with a good quantity of quality quarterbacks. The question is, does the first overall pick being a quarterback actually equate to trophies?
2003 - Patriots v Panthers - Tom Brady v Jake Delhomme - NO
2004 - Patriots v Eagles - Tom Brady v Donovan McNabb - NO (McNabb was selected 2nd overall in the '99 Draft)
2005 - Steelers v Seahawks - Ben Roethlisberger v Matt Hasselbeck - NO
2006 - Colts v Bears - Peyton Manning v Rex Grossman - YES (Manning was selected 1st overall in the '98 Draft)
2007 - Giants v Patriots - Eli Manning v Tom Brady - YES
2008 - Steelers v Cardinals - Ben Roethlisberger v Kurt Warner - NO
2009 - Saints v Colts - Drew Brees v Peyton Manning - YES
2010 - Packers v Steelers - Aaron Rodgers v Ben Roethlisberger - NO
2011 - Giants v Patriots - Eli Manning v Tom Brady - YES
2012 - Ravens v 49ers - Joe Flacco v Colin Kaepernick - NO
2013 - Broncos v Seahawks - Peyton Manning v Russell Wilson - YES
Of the last 20 AFC and NFC Champions, only 3 have started a 1st overall selection at Quarterback, and of those there are only 2 different 1st overall selections (Eli Manning and Peyton Manning).
For every Eli Manning and Peyton Manning, there have been JaMarcus Russell's or Ryan Leaf's. If we expect the Houston Texans to draft either Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater (or even perhaps Blake Bortles), then we must temper the expectations. We should have no doubt our chances of winning an AFC Championship are pretty slim over the course of even the next 5 seasons.
So where do you all sit? What is the inherent benefit of the 1st overall pick being a quarterback? Production? Quality? If our goal is a SuperBowl, then unless we get a quarterback the talent of Eli or Peyton, we might as well resign ourselves to the fact we aren't getting one. Period.
The stats, and history, don't lie.