With Jonathan Wade, Jason Hill and Tanard Jackson on the board, I consider this a bit of a disappointing pick.  Lots of potential from Jones, but until he shakes the Mathis jinx, I'll consider this a very questionable decision by Smith & Co.

I know it's still not official, but every news outlet seems to think it's a done deal.  As such, I might as well rant awhile about it.  The proposed trade between your Houston Texans and the Atlanta Falcons:

Houston Receives:
-QB Matt Schaub; and
-No. 10 pick in the 2007 NFL Draft

Atlanta Receives:
-No. 8 pick in the 2007 NFL Draft;
-Houston's second-round pick (No. 37 overall) in the 2007 NFL Draft; and
-Houston's second round pick in the 2008 NFL Draft.

My initial visceral reaction, you ask?  These could change with a good night's sleep (which, to be honest, probably isn't forthcoming as I toss and turn about how this deal will impact my fall Sundays for the next several years), but here you go:

1.  The Texans gave up one second-round pick too many.  As I first stated when John McClain reported that a deal was in the works, the Falcons were going to demand a king's ransom for Matt Schaub.  Schaub has been the apple of many GMs' eyes for the past couple of seasons, and the perceived uncertainty surrounding Michael Vick's future in Atlanta under a new coach only added to the notion that Atlanta would drive an extremely hard bargain.  Which they surely did.  Think about it:  Houston gave away two (2) second-round picks (and swapped first rounders) for the privilege of acquiring a guy who has thrown 161 passes in his NFL career.  Schaub's CAREER numbers:  84-161, 1033 yards, 6 TD, 6 INT, 69.2 QBR.  To say he's unproven is an understatement, and Rick Smith just bid adieu to two (2) second-rounders (one of which is known to be early in this year's draft) for the guy.  One of those picks, I get; Schaub is a hot commodity, and you're going to pay for his services.  But I don't care how much you love this deal; losing two (2) second-round picks (and presumably two starters, if the Texans draft right) on a team in dire need of talent is positively frightening.  And the fact that Atlanta fans are rejoicing doesn't make me feel any better.
2.  For the package he commanded, I sure hope The Schaub delivers.  The dwindling fan base in this town will turn on him awfully quick if he doesn't produce in a hurry.
3.  Any talk of Carr returning to the Texans should cease.  I didn't think he was coming back anyway, but this is the unofficial death knell of his career in H-Town.  Now it's on Smith to attempt to get a draft pick for Carr.  That won't be easy.  Every other team knows the Texans aren't going to pay Carr his ridiculous salary to be a backup or a third-stringer.  Additionally, I remain incredibly skeptical that any team would want to absorb Carr's contract.  It's going to take some real magic for the Texans to get anything for Carr, but rest assured we've seen the last of him in the steel blue, battle red, and liberty white.
4.  For all the talk about Matt Schaub and Sage Rosenfels competing for the starting gig, it ain't happening.  Schaub is the starter.  Sage is the backup.  I thought Sage deserved a shot at starting, yet it seems clear by this move that management wasn't as confident in Rosenfels' ability as I was.  Don't get me wrong...Schaub would seem to have a much higher ceiling, so he should be starting.  But see Point Two again.
5.  Kubiak was less than enthused with any of the QBs available to the Texans in this year's draft crop.  I'd like to think that includes Brady Quinn, but it may simply be that the Texans didn't think he'd be there at No. 8.  Regardless, I view this trade as confirmation that Kubes wasn't wild about burning a second or third round pick on Kevin Kolb, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, and/or John Beck.  Basically, Houston just used their second-round pick for the next two years on Matt Schaub.  If he produces, it'll be well worth it.  If he doesn't...
6.  Kubiak and Smith could take the fall.  Last year's decision to pass on Vince Young aside, this move will define the Smithiak Regime.  For all of the criticism surrounding last year's first round selection, there's no denying that the new management did nothing short of an incredible job last season, both in the draft and during the season.  DeMeco Ryans, Charles Spencer, Eric Winston, Owen Daniels, Anthony Maddox, Vonta Leach, anyone?  Based on the very early returns, the fact that Smith and Kubes liked Matt Schaub THIS MUCH makes me believe in the guy that much more.  Maybe that makes me a homer, but so be it.
7.  Moving from No. 8 to No. 10 in the first round isn't really a big deal.  The Texans must have thought they could fill a need as easily at No. 10 as at No. 8, and they'll save money doing it.  Now the question becomes who they'll target.  If Atlanta was as hot after LaRon Landry as every mock draft seems to think they are, he may be their guy at No. 8.  I have no idea who the Texans are targeting at No. 10, but Levi Brown makes a whole lot more sense there than he did at No. 8.
8.  No Brady Quinn in H-Town!  Huzzah!  I can cancel that order for a carton of bleach, as there is no longer the threat of me guzzling several bottles worth when I heard "With the eighth pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans select Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame" on April 28th.  Hell, I'm already a huge Schaub guy simply because of the whole "I won't have to off myself" vibe that his arrival brings.
9.  For better or for worse, Matt Schaub is now our guy, Houston.  To paraphrase Shake's sig line--we can criticize the trade all we want, but we should embrace the player.  Especially since he's not Brady Quinn.

In Matt Schaub We Trust!  C'mon--you now that sounds a whole lot better than "In David Carr We Trust."  Admit it.

I know it's still not official, but every news outlet seems to think it's a done deal.  As such, I might as well rant awhile about it.  The proposed trade between your Houston Texans and the Atlanta Falcons:

Houston Receives:
-QB Matt Schaub; and
-No. 10 pick in the 2007 NFL Draft

Atlanta Receives:
-No. 8 pick in the 2007 NFL Draft;
-Houston's second-round pick (No. 37 overall) in the 2007 NFL Draft; and
-Houston's second round pick in the 2008 NFL Draft.

My initial visceral reaction, you ask?  These could change with a good night's sleep (which, to be honest, probably isn't forthcoming as I toss and turn about how this deal will impact my fall Sundays for the next several years), but here you go:

1.  The Texans gave up one second-round pick too many.  As I first stated when John McClain reported that a deal was in the works, the Falcons were going to demand a king's ransom for Matt Schaub.  Schaub has been the apple of many GMs' eyes for the past couple of seasons, and the perceived uncertainty surrounding Michael Vick's future in Atlanta under a new coach only added to the notion that Atlanta would drive an extremely hard bargain.  Which they surely did.  Think about it:  Houston gave away two (2) second-round picks (and swapped first rounders) for the privilege of acquiring a guy who has thrown 161 passes in his NFL career.  Schaub's CAREER numbers:  84-161, 1033 yards, 6 TD, 6 INT, 69.2 QBR.  To say he's unproven is an understatement, and Rick Smith just bid adieu to two (2) second-rounders (one of which is known to be early in this year's draft) for the guy.  One of those picks, I get; Schaub is a hot commodity, and you're going to pay for his services.  But I don't care how much you love this deal; losing two (2) second-round picks (and presumably two starters, if the Texans draft right) on a team in dire need of talent is positively frightening.  And the fact that Atlanta fans are rejoicing doesn't make me feel any better.
2.  For the package he commanded, I sure hope The Schaub delivers.  The dwindling fan base in this town will turn on him awfully quick if he doesn't produce in a hurry.
3.  Any talk of Carr returning to the Texans should cease.  I didn't think he was coming back anyway, but this is the unofficial death knell of his career in H-Town.  Now it's on Smith to attempt to get a draft pick for Carr.  That won't be easy.  Every other team knows the Texans aren't going to pay Carr his ridiculous salary to be a backup or a third-stringer.  Additionally, I remain incredibly skeptical that any team would want to absorb Carr's contract.  It's going to take some real magic for the Texans to get anything for Carr, but rest assured we've seen the last of him in the steel blue, battle red, and liberty white.
4.  For all the talk about Matt Schaub and Sage Rosenfels competing for the starting gig, it ain't happening.  Schaub is the starter.  Sage is the backup.  I thought Sage deserved a shot at starting, yet it seems clear by this move that management wasn't as confident in Rosenfels' ability as I was.  Don't get me wrong...Schaub would seem to have a much higher ceiling, so he should be starting.  But see Point Two again.
5.  Kubiak was less than enthused with any of the QBs available to the Texans in this year's draft crop.  I'd like to think that includes Brady Quinn, but it may simply be that the Texans didn't think he'd be there at No. 8.  Regardless, I view this trade as confirmation that Kubes wasn't wild about burning a second or third round pick on Kevin Kolb, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, and/or John Beck.  Basically, Houston just used their second-round pick for the next two years on Matt Schaub.  If he produces, it'll be well worth it.  If he doesn't...
6.  Kubiak and Smith could take the fall.  Last year's decision to pass on Vince Young aside, this move will define the Smithiak Regime.  For all of the criticism surrounding last year's first round selection, there's no denying that the new management did nothing short of an incredible job last season, both in the draft and during the season.  DeMeco Ryans, Charles Spencer, Eric Winston, Owen Daniels, Anthony Maddox, Vonta Leach, anyone?  Based on the very early returns, the fact that Smith and Kubes liked Matt Schaub THIS MUCH makes me believe in the guy that much more.  Maybe that makes me a homer, but so be it.
7.  Moving from No. 8 to No. 10 in the first round isn't really a big deal.  The Texans must have thought they could fill a need as easily at No. 10 as at No. 8, and they'll save money doing it.  Now the question becomes who they'll target.  If Atlanta was as hot after LaRon Landry as every mock draft seems to think they are, he may be their guy at No. 8.  I have no idea who the Texans are targeting at No. 10, but Levi Brown makes a whole lot more sense there than he did at No. 8.
8.  No Brady Quinn in H-Town!  Huzzah!  I can cancel that order for a carton of bleach, as there is no longer the threat of me guzzling several bottles worth when I heard "With the eighth pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans select Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame" on April 28th.  Hell, I'm already a huge Schaub guy simply because of the whole "I won't have to off myself" vibe that his arrival brings.
9.  For better or for worse, Matt Schaub is now our guy, Houston.  To paraphrase Shake's sig line--we can criticize the trade all we want, but we should embrace the player.  Especially since he's not Brady Quinn.

In Matt Schaub We Trust!  C'mon--you now that sounds a whole lot better than "In David Carr We Trust."  Admit it.

Much of the anti-Brady Quinn hype seems to revolve around the theory that Quinn simply beat up on bad teams throughout his career at ND, considerably padding his stats, and was ineffective in the big games.  I am honestly split when it comes to Quinn: partially convinced that he's a low-risk, high-return QB candidate for the Texans, partially concerned that the critics are justified in their complaints.  So I did the best thing that I could think of: compiled a database of BQ's games at ND.  

For this project, I catergorized Quinn's starts throughout his four-year Irish career into three groups: Weak, Respectable and Limelight games.  I'll mention the wins and losses because they are obviously relevant, but much of Notre Dame's struggles during Quinn's tenure were clearly the result of a punchless defense moreso than ineffective quarterback play.  Regardless, here's what I found:

Against Weak opponents:
2003 - 23-43, 333 yards, 2/2 TD/INT (2-0), QB rating 111.5
2004 - 65-127, 908 yards, 6/2 TD/INT (3-1), QB rating 83.7
2005 - 183-276, 2650 yards, 22/5 TD/INT (6-1), QB rating 117
2006 - 106-157, 1322 yards, 19/2 TD/INT (5-0), QB rating 127.7

Career v. Weak Opp:
Total: 377-603, 5213 yards, 49/11 TD/INT (16-2), QB Rating 109.5
Average: 21-33, 290 yards, 2.7/0.6 TD/INT

Against Respectable Opponents:
2003 - 89-176, 1035 yards, 4/10 TD/INT (2-3), QB rating 52.6
2004 - 71-125, 1052 yards, 5/4 TD/INT (1-3), QB rating 84.5
2005 - 42-64, 579 yards, 7/1 TD/INT (2-0), QB rating 124.4
2006 - 122-182, 1448 yards, 10/0 TD/INT (5-0), QB rating 109.4

Career v. Respectable Opp:
Total: 324-547, 4114 yards, 26/15 TD/INT (10-6), QB rating 87.6
Average: 20-34, 257 yards, 1.6/0.9 TD/INT

Against v. Limelight Opp:
2003 - 35-86, 343 yards, 1/3 TD/INT (0-2), QB rating
2004 - 54-101, 615 yards, 6/4 TD/INT (2-2), QB rating 83.5
2005 - 67-110, 690 yards, 3/1 TD/INT (1-2), QB rating 84.7
2006 - 61-128, 656 yards, 8/5 TD/INT (0-3), QB rating 67.8

Career v. Limelight Opp:
Total: 217-425, 2304 yards, 18/13 TD/INT (3-9), QB rating 68.5
Average: 18-35, 192 yards, 1.5/1.08 TD/INT

Conclusions?

1. Brady Quinn has played in a lot of big games, and while he was not sensational, he was not the reason that his team lost the games that they lost, most of the time.  An 18/13 TD/INT ratio against USC, Michigan, etc. and in bowl games is nothing to be ashamed of.  One concern would be that Quinn never seems to have had a real breakout performance in one of these huge games.  His best numbers were against USC in 2006 in a blowout loss.  A positive appears to be that he never had an absolute collapse in a big game, though his 2006 Sugar Bowl performance against LSU was certainly a bad one.  Watching that game, I felt like the ND offensive line's inability to contain the LSU pass rush was the deciding factor much moreso than Quinn's shortcomings.
2.  He won the games he should have won, going 16-2 against teams with .500 or losing records in his career.  His stats are clearly better in those games, which is to be expected, but numbers like 19/2 TD/INT in 2006 and 22/5 TD/INT in 2005 are certainly worth taking notice of.
3. He is reliable, having started every game of his college career except for the first three games of his freshman season.  
4. The trends are mostly positive.  His TD/INT ratios, completion percentages and passer ratings, in general, all moved upwards throughout his career.  In particular, his 5-0 record in games against GT, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA and Navy (with a 109.4 QB rating and 10/0 TD/INT ratio) in 2006 is very impressive.

What conclusions do you reach, if any, from this data?  Clearly his trio of 400+ yard games against Michigan State, BYU and Purdue really got the nation's attention, and those are not defensive powerhouses.  But I think from looking at these numbers, it is fair to say that while Quinn never dominated on the big stage, he consistently performed well enough for his team to win.  How does that translate to the NFL?  That's for Rick Smith and Gary Kubiak to decide.

Much of the anti-Brady Quinn hype seems to revolve around the theory that Quinn simply beat up on bad teams throughout his career at ND, considerably padding his stats, and was ineffective in the big games.  I am honestly split when it comes to Quinn: partially convinced that he's a low-risk, high-return QB candidate for the Texans, partially concerned that the critics are justified in their complaints.  So I did the best thing that I could think of: compiled a database of BQ's games at ND.  

For this project, I catergorized Quinn's starts throughout his four-year Irish career into three groups: Weak, Respectable and Limelight games.  I'll mention the wins and losses because they are obviously relevant, but much of Notre Dame's struggles during Quinn's tenure were clearly the result of a punchless defense moreso than ineffective quarterback play.  Regardless, here's what I found:

Against Weak opponents:
2003 - 23-43, 333 yards, 2/2 TD/INT (2-0), QB rating 111.5
2004 - 65-127, 908 yards, 6/2 TD/INT (3-1), QB rating 83.7
2005 - 183-276, 2650 yards, 22/5 TD/INT (6-1), QB rating 117
2006 - 106-157, 1322 yards, 19/2 TD/INT (5-0), QB rating 127.7

Career v. Weak Opp:
Total: 377-603, 5213 yards, 49/11 TD/INT (16-2), QB Rating 109.5
Average: 21-33, 290 yards, 2.7/0.6 TD/INT

Against Respectable Opponents:
2003 - 89-176, 1035 yards, 4/10 TD/INT (2-3), QB rating 52.6
2004 - 71-125, 1052 yards, 5/4 TD/INT (1-3), QB rating 84.5
2005 - 42-64, 579 yards, 7/1 TD/INT (2-0), QB rating 124.4
2006 - 122-182, 1448 yards, 10/0 TD/INT (5-0), QB rating 109.4

Career v. Respectable Opp:
Total: 324-547, 4114 yards, 26/15 TD/INT (10-6), QB rating 87.6
Average: 20-34, 257 yards, 1.6/0.9 TD/INT

Against v. Limelight Opp:
2003 - 35-86, 343 yards, 1/3 TD/INT (0-2), QB rating
2004 - 54-101, 615 yards, 6/4 TD/INT (2-2), QB rating 83.5
2005 - 67-110, 690 yards, 3/1 TD/INT (1-2), QB rating 84.7
2006 - 61-128, 656 yards, 8/5 TD/INT (0-3), QB rating 67.8

Career v. Limelight Opp:
Total: 217-425, 2304 yards, 18/13 TD/INT (3-9), QB rating 68.5
Average: 18-35, 192 yards, 1.5/1.08 TD/INT

Conclusions?

1. Brady Quinn has played in a lot of big games, and while he was not sensational, he was not the reason that his team lost the games that they lost, most of the time.  An 18/13 TD/INT ratio against USC, Michigan, etc. and in bowl games is nothing to be ashamed of.  One concern would be that Quinn never seems to have had a real breakout performance in one of these huge games.  His best numbers were against USC in 2006 in a blowout loss.  A positive appears to be that he never had an absolute collapse in a big game, though his 2006 Sugar Bowl performance against LSU was certainly a bad one.  Watching that game, I felt like the ND offensive line's inability to contain the LSU pass rush was the deciding factor much moreso than Quinn's shortcomings.
2.  He won the games he should have won, going 16-2 against teams with .500 or losing records in his career.  His stats are clearly better in those games, which is to be expected, but numbers like 19/2 TD/INT in 2006 and 22/5 TD/INT in 2005 are certainly worth taking notice of.
3. He is reliable, having started every game of his college career except for the first three games of his freshman season.  
4. The trends are mostly positive.  His TD/INT ratios, completion percentages and passer ratings, in general, all moved upwards throughout his career.  In particular, his 5-0 record in games against GT, Penn State, Purdue, UCLA and Navy (with a 109.4 QB rating and 10/0 TD/INT ratio) in 2006 is very impressive.

What conclusions do you reach, if any, from this data?  Clearly his trio of 400+ yard games against Michigan State, BYU and Purdue really got the nation's attention, and those are not defensive powerhouses.  But I think from looking at these numbers, it is fair to say that while Quinn never dominated on the big stage, he consistently performed well enough for his team to win.  How does that translate to the NFL?  That's for Rick Smith and Gary Kubiak to decide.

And that's locking up Andre Johnson before he can hits the market.  Dre had two years left on his original deal, but this move was brilliant on two fronts:  (1) Laying out the dough a No. 1 WR and Pro Bowler deserves and (2) freeing up another $6,000,000.00 in money under the 2007 cap to chase other free agents.  It's a win-win deal, and Bob McNair should be applauded for being proactive on that front.

If Andre Johnson isn't the best wide receiver in football, he's at least in the discussion.  Sure, I'm biased, but Johnson is indisputably the premiere offensive weapon on the Texans.  Knowing that he'll be around for several more seasons should allow whoever's under center, as well as the dwindling Texan fan base, some piece of mind.

 

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