Nerd Alert!
The Study Of Parity Has Been Very Uneven
The second the NFL Championship games were over and we knew the Super Bowl match-up, I knew it was coming. It's like the swallows returning to Capistrano or Jets fans hating their first round pick -- you can set your clock to it (assuming you had one of those clocks that counts in years).
What I'm referring to is the inevitable story about how baseball has more parity than football because of the higher number of repeat champions in the NFL. Normally, Jayson Stark is the one championing the cause (and I actually like Stark), but this year Tom Verducci beat him to it.
Now, normally, this is one of those things that I wouldn't really care much about. I mean, I love baseball and I love football, so it's kind of like deciding which kid you love the most or which is your favorite IPA, but I'm always bothered by the analysis. Simply looking at the different number of champions over a given time frame is like judging a pitcher or quarterback only by win-loss record.
So I decided to take a crack at it. While the ever accurate sniff test tells me that the NFL has more parity, I made a strong effort to stay intellectually honest and not let my suspicion guide the analysis.
But I must warn ye, there be math ahead.
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NFL Mock Draft: First Shot At A Full Houston Texans Mock
Over the past few weeks, I’ve found myself absorbing draft information like a ShamWow. Even though it’s taken me a bit longer to get into it, I love the draft. Aside from getting most fans optimistic about their teams, the draft is quite a science. You have tons of front office people trying to find that happy medium of value (both big board wise and position class wise), need (filling holes on the roster), organization fit (scheme, character), and talent (immediate impact/future potential). It's not as simple as taking the best talent (nor is it as simple as ranking everyone on one big board like Mel Kiper does...but that's a different article altogether).
For the sake of the prospect’s round, I went to various draft websites (your Mocking The Draft, WalterFootball, FootballsFuture, DraftCountdown, terrible DraftTek, CBSSports’ section, etc.) and got a sense of range. Granted, projected round will be a very fluid situation over the coming weeks.
Furthermore, I did not put my Rick Smith hat on for this mock. It is what I would do if I were general manager. I do try and stick to organization fits though, so there will be no dream-like scenarios of trading up or trying to make a square fit in a round hole.
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Houston Texans Draft Primer: West Coast Wide Receiver Love
It's no secret that your Houston Texans need to add a wide receiver or two to their receiving corps. Outside of Andre Johnson, there is no consistent playmaker, plus the group as a whole lacks young talent. However, a misconception that I have seen on message boards, comments sections, and Twitter is that the Texans need to draft Super-Fast Wide Receiver with a 4.3 40-yard dash because they need a fast deep-threat in this offense.
To those who hold this line of thought, I have one thing to say to you: Stop. You're lacking a basic understanding of what kind of offense is being run by your chosen professional football franchise.
I don’t intend for that to come off as mean-sounding, but hearing this chatter pick up is beginning to drive me up a wall because it's not adding to the draft conversation and I absolutely love the West Coast Offense. I mean, I grew up thinking that Bill Walsh was an unadulterated genius for his design, which focuses more on timing and precision than pure athletic ability. My childhood doesn't bias me beyond comprehension, as Walsh’s teachings are so good that his coaching tree has produced 13 of the last 29 Super Bowl champions, plus another 11 conference champions to boot (not to mention that five of the final eight coaches from this season's playoffs are branches on the Walsh tree).
As we shift into draft season, we all need to understand what makes this offense tick in order to get an idea of who may become a Texan in April. Consider the post-jump a look at the West Coast Offense and what you need to be looking for in a wide receiver.
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A Look At 2012 Free Agents For The Houston Texans
Normally, at this time of year, I would be focused on the NFL Draft on a nearly exclusive level. Actually, I would have been thinking about the draft around November and really begun focusing on absorbing information like a sponge. When you have a good team, the draft takes a backseat until February, and when your team is young, then it can even wait until after the exclusive negotiating period between players and teams.
Your Houston Texans will be entering their first off-season as a good, contending team. With a lot of quality and youth on the roster, the more pressing need is to retain their own free agents, and maybe add one or two other veterans to the roster.
Let’s take a look, below the jump, to see whose contracts are up in Houston and what the team will likely do with each of them.
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A Look At Chris Myers And His Contract Negotations, Or How His Deal Won't Break Houston's Cap
One of the key offseason contract negotiations to take place for the Houston Texans over the coming weeks will be with Pro Bowl center Chris Myers. From a player standpoint, and this is by no means disrespectful to Myers, his deal probably rates third in importance to the franchise, behind quarterback destroyer Mario Williams and defensive shredder Arian Foster.
There seems to be some concern by fans that the Texans can’t sign all three, forgetting that Mario’s 2011 cap hit was excessively high and you could get a deal where he’s not making the per-year amount as last year. I digress and come back to Mr. Myers...after the jump.
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Number Theory: A Probability Guide to the Texans' Playoff Seed
How many of you remember high school math classes? Do you remember that one guy who would always sit in the far back and act like he was really interested in that day's lesson...until the teacher turned his/her back on him? Remember the faint (or not so faint) rumble of snoring radiating from that guy's desk as you stared numbly at a blackboard that had formulas and equations so elaborate and confusing that they might as well have written them in Tlingit?
Yeah, sorry about that.
As nice as it was to get a nap in that day, I really wish I'd stayed awake for that lesson on probability and odds. One, because maybe I wouldn't lose so much money at the casino once every five years when I can actually afford it, and two, because if I had, maybe I would not have spent so long (and destroyed so many sheets of paper in the process) figuring out just what kind seed the Texans could expect to have in this year's playoffs.
After hours of working out the odds, I present to you, my fellow fans and "math aficionados" (seriously SBN, the sooner we can write in sarcasm font, the better), the general seeding odds for your 2011-12 Houston Texans.
But before we jump, I would first like a moment of silence for the forest that died so that this post may live.
/crickets
//drunk guy yells, "Woo!"
Thank you. On to the guide!
Does Foster's Fancy For Fumbling Forebode A Fruitless Future?
Last week, I wrote the following:
Ben Tate has four fumbles on the season in 154 touches, or one every 38.5 touches. Arian Foster has three fumbles in 284 touches, or one every 94.7 touches (and that includes the WTF fumble from Sunday -- otherwise it would be one every 142 touches). For everyone clamoring for Tate to take over for Foster because of his higher yards-per-carry stat, keep that in mind.
On Sunday, Arian Foster proceeded to fumble on the second play of the game, making me look like a jackass.
I don't even own him in Fantasy!
Then on Monday, I start seeing guys such as Paul Kuharsky talking about Foster's "sudden propensity to fumble."
All this after Foster was named to the USA Football All-Fundamental team for following blocks and ball security.
So what gives? Should Foster's new sponsor be Bananas Foster Butter (which sounds kind of gross)?
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NFL All-Time Winning Percentage: Houston Texans Making Progress
Lost in the hoopla that is an amazing 10-3 AFC South division-winning season is the fact that your Houston Texans are moving on up.
Moving on up what you ask? The NFL's list of all-time franchise winning percentages. Between Houston's great season and Tampa Bay's 2011 struggles, the Texans passed the Buccaneers on the list three weeks ago. I am sure Tampa Bay will continue to find solace in its Lombardi Trophy, something 14 other franchises wish they had sitting in their headquarters.
Houston is 31st now, sporting a .414 winning percentage, and sits .001 behind the 30th-placed Arizona Cardinals (.415). With a Texans win on Sunday, Houston will leap ahead and look to track down the next grouping of teams, which includes the Atlanta Falcons (.428), New Orleans Saints (.434), and Cincinnati Bengals (.437).
Slowly but surely, the Texans are headed in the right direction and are no longer the NFL's most losingest franchise in terms of win percentage. For those wondering, the Cardinals have lost the most games in NFL history with 698. You can go ahead and store that one in the back of your mind for the next quiz night at your local bar.
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