What To Do At RB?

by Tim on Jan 7, 2008 10:32 PM CST in News

Now that the 2007 campaign has concluded, we naturally turn our attention to next year. As MDC eloquently and thoroughly opined, any draft speculation has to be grounded in an assessment of each position going into 2008. It might be overly ambitious, but I'm going to try to address each position by March so we can go into full draft geek mode for a solid seven to eight weeks. First up--running back.

THE OPTIONS CURRENTLY ON THE ROSTER

Ahman Green
Ron Dayne
Darius Walker
Chris Taylor
Arliss Beach

Really, how the Texans assess their needs here depends almost entirely on whether they decide to bring Ahman Green back. Ahman is projected to count $5,050,000.00 against next season's cap, which is not exactly chicken feed. Frankly, his brief stint as a Texan hasn't shown that he's worth any guaranteed money, much less that kind of guaranteed money. That said, do you really see Ahman renegotiating his contract to account for a poor 2007? I don't know the man, so I certainly can't do anything but speculate that it's pretty damn rare for a professional athlete who has no real history with a franchise to leave dough on the table.

So does Smithiak bid their big-splash free agent signing of March 2007 adieu? I would, and I think they will when it's all said and done. If that happens, then you have to think that RB rockets up the draft priority board. But where? And who?

With the list of running backs available in the 2008 NFL Draft growing each day, there will definitely be no shortage of options. So do the Texans go RB at No. 18? Given Kubes' history of finding diamonds in the rough, I don't think so. I'm guessing they go RB in Round Three or later. I'm also guessing that Ron Dayne is re-signed, and that the final active RB spot goes to Darius Walker or Chris Taylor.

Denizens of BRB, what do you think? Is Ahman coming back? Will the Texans take a RB in Round One? Should they? Will they go RB at all? Who do you have your eye on?

0 recs | Comment 38 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

No Ahman

I don't particularly want Ahman back, and I'm pretty confident he won't be.

The Texans will draft at RB, but I don't expect it to be in the first round. Just doesn't seem like a very Texans thing to do.

by RZachSmith on Jan 8, 2008 1:07 AM CST 0 recs

Follow the money

IIRC, and there's no guarantee of that, Ahman's bonus for his four-year contract was in the neighborhood of $6.5 mil. That should mean that for cap purposes, the bonus figure is about $1.625 mil per season. If we cut him now, that is accelerated, so our cap hit this season without Ahman is $4.875. Now, if he counts $5.05 mil this season, that means that, sans pro-rated bonus of $1.625 mil, his base salary would be roughly $3.425. This says to me--and keep in mind I'm working a set of 12-hour nights, so I'm not all there right now (as if I ever am!)--that it costs us $450K to cut Ahman.

Now, we took a loss to get rid of Moulds last season, but I don't think we're bitter towards Ahman for lack of production--we knew he was coming off of a knee injury, and we took the risk. I have to think you keep Ahman around to see if his knee gets better for this season.

by knave64 on Jan 8, 2008 1:07 PM CST up 0 recs

I'm with RZach on this

Plus, and maybe it's that knee thing again, but I am having Domanick Davis-Williams-whatever and Barbaro flashbacks. If he wants back, we can cut him, take the salary cap hit, then offer an incentive-laden contract. PLUS, I don't want keeping Ahman the alibi for not drafting a RB out of this class.

I admit: I am drooling over the thought of drafting Jamaal-American in the 2nd (if we trade down) or 3rd round.

by bigfatdrunk on Jan 8, 2008 1:55 PM CST up 0 recs

And now, the rest of the equation...

I'll wait for MDC or Tim to post the actual numbers, but I think your equation ignores one very important fact. You're probably close on the "it costs us $450k to cut Ahman" this year versus paying him to play (or sit on the bench, whatever).

However, if we pay him to play as you suggest, then we will still have the rest of the bonus & cap-hit to deal with if it doesn't work out in '08, and would be in the hole a little over $3MM versus cutting him before the '08 season.

I now give the same disclaimer regarding how much sense this actually made.

We can be critical of the draft picks, but in the end we always support the new Texan.

by Shake on Jan 8, 2008 2:09 PM CST up 0 recs

Not quite...

His bonus was $5MM according to everything I've seen, meaning that there is $3.75MM cap hit if we lose him. Now, the $5.05 minus $1.25 = $3.8MM base salary. Plus, we could make him a June 1 cut and he'd only count $1.875MM this year and next.

by MDC on Jan 8, 2008 2:11 PM CST up 0 recs

I agree that we probably won't take one in the 1st

which is probably the right way to go. I'm curious, though, how good of a running back would have to fall to 18 before they considered it?

by MDC on Jan 8, 2008 7:43 AM CST 0 recs

Wild Guess

Probably whoever is rated as about the 4th RB on the draft boards.

We can be critical of the draft picks, but in the end we always support the new Texan.

by Shake on Jan 8, 2008 7:54 AM CST up 0 recs

Hmm...

My admittedly-unofficial board has the top 5 RBs as:

McFadden
J. Stewart
Felix Jones
Chris Johnson
Rashard Mendenhall

Strangely, however, I don't see more than the top three going in the first round. So I'm guessing that Stewart and McFadden are the only two we'd consider. (Obviously, DMc won't be there at 18.)

by MDC on Jan 8, 2008 8:34 AM CST up 0 recs

Felix Jones

Has he officially declared?

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Jan 8, 2008 9:14 AM CST up 0 recs

As far as I know

He has not declared yet. And there are obviously speculations whether he will/won't now that Smith & Mendenhall are in the mix.

Like I said....it is just retarded how many good RB's are in the '08 Draft.

We can be critical of the draft picks, but in the end we always support the new Texan.

by Shake on Jan 8, 2008 9:41 AM CST up 0 recs

No

Mine is based on assumption that he will because the Hogs are losing too much in the way of offensive line to risk coming back and killing his draft stock. Plus, Petrino is a turd. (Also, technically, DMc is not completely sure he's coming out according to local reports.)

If he doesn't come out, though, bump everyone up and put either J. Charles or K. Smith in the five hole.

by MDC on Jan 8, 2008 9:50 AM CST up 0 recs

BTW

I love that you included Arliss Beach on that list. You are a stickler for details.

by MDC on Jan 8, 2008 9:51 AM CST 0 recs

Son of a Beach!

Sorry, I just had to.

Shakin 'em off one win at a time... In Schaub we trust.

by SOLIS on Jan 8, 2008 10:09 AM CST up 0 recs

Thanks

I'm nothing if not occasionally thorough.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Jan 8, 2008 10:37 AM CST up 0 recs

chron mock draft

lance z had his first mock draft up on the chron website and had us taking mendenhall at 18. when asked about mendenhall vs. stewart he said he likes mendenhall better because of his speed and he thought that he will be moving up lots of draft boards prior to the draft.

i would be happy with either but, as already stated, i think we won't got with a rb in the first.

by cbass on Jan 8, 2008 11:46 AM CST 0 recs

mistake

i meant to say : i don't think we'll go with a rb in the 1st. not: "i think we won't got with a rb in the first."

wow, i'm dumb.

by cbass on Jan 8, 2008 11:49 AM CST up 0 recs

rbs

I'm fully on-board the shake-train hoping that we trade down for a 1 and 2. There should be plenty enough depth for a RB in the 2nd, if not the 3rd.

by bigfatdrunk on Jan 8, 2008 12:52 PM CST up 0 recs

Hey...

who are you calling a denizen? I think we all like girls here.
Hello, northern bias here. Mike mother effing Hart and Ray Rice. That noise in the background is the drum I'll be banging for the trade down to round 2 and taking one of them.

by JBNJ on Jan 8, 2008 2:27 PM CST 0 recs

Hart

round 3.

Rice, round 2.

by MDC on Jan 8, 2008 3:01 PM CST up 0 recs

damn homers

You guys are blinded by your homerism.

Obviously, we should take Jamaal Charles.

by bigfatdrunk on Jan 8, 2008 3:12 PM CST up 0 recs

I am a shameless homer...

but even I don't want Hart before round 3. Preferably, we wind up with someone else.

Now, next year...Mario Manningham...yeah, I'm probably going to go overboard with that.

by MDC on Jan 8, 2008 3:46 PM CST up 0 recs

Say

it again real slow, Matt. Manningham, yeah that's it. Oooh, now I've went and made a mess.
Hart in round 3 would be ideal with a trade down in round 1 while picking up a 2. Jeez, I made a mess again.
Once and for all, is Turner an unrestricted guy or not?

by JBNJ on Jan 8, 2008 4:52 PM CST up 0 recs

Yes

Turner is unrestricted.

I love Mikey Hart and always will, but his size without breakaway speed makes him less than ideal. If we got him in the third or later, I'd learn to deal with it.

Mannnnnninghammmmmmm

by MDC on Jan 8, 2008 4:58 PM CST up 0 recs

Manningham

would give us two Mario's, one for offense and one for defense. And they will both scare the feces out of our afc south friends." Imagine having MM lining up opposite Dre, with sure-handed K-Dub as the 3 and Apostrophe as the 4.

by BigTexBD on Jan 8, 2008 5:28 PM CST up 0 recs

MARIO

Manningham (and Arrington) have both decided to enter the draft.

This excites me and saddens me at the same time.

by MDC on Jan 10, 2008 3:00 PM CST up 0 recs

i am mentally deficient

of course I didn't read the massive thread on the top of the main page before moving to the diaries. My "announcement" that Ray Rice has entered his name to the draft should be ignored, as you beat me.

by BigTexBD on Jan 8, 2008 5:25 PM CST up 0 recs

Us versus them

Another thing to consider is the needs of the teams around us. Just taking a quick look at the draft list I'm trying to break down who might take what.

If we were to consider a RB in the first round
Teams that arguably need a RB and are ahead of us (Current RBs in parenthesis as well as personal thoughts):
Oakland (J. Fargas, L. Jordan - but really it's Al Davis)
Jets (T. Jones, L. Washington)
Carolina (D. Foster, D. Williams - mostly because he hosed me in fantasy last year)
Detroit (Unless you think Kevin Jones is the answer)

Now I've probably reached with a few of these, but I think it's pretty clear none of the 1st round RBs are likely to fall into our lap. Which leads us to the second possibility of round 3 or later. That adds a few more teams. I'm not going to consider trading into the 2nd round because trades don't typically happen until draft day (the Schaub trade was an anomaly I think) so it's really too hard to guess with that.

If we go after an RB in round 3 or later:
The above mentioned teams (x3)
Philadelphia (B. Westbrook, but they need someone to compliment him)
Seattle (x2) (I say this because Alexander is clearly on the down and they are high on Morris but with a draft this loaded picking in the 2nd round isn't crazy)
Green Bay (x2) (R. Grant = flash in the pan)
NY Giants (x2) (Mostly depends on how Bradshaw and Jacobs perform in the playoffs)

I think the richness of this draft will cause teams to pause on RBs early, but grab one when they can. So taking my guesses generously or strictly I think there are anywhere between 4 and 8 teams ahead of us (if we wait until the 3rd) who could grab RBs.

However, even if the worst comes true and 8 teams pick RBs, there is still talent to be had. Such is the blessing and the curse of this draft class.

Anyhoo - just something else to think about. We aren't the only ones who need an RB.

Tell me again why I follow sports?

by DisplacedTexan on Jan 8, 2008 5:03 PM CST 0 recs

You think...

...that the Pats would take a RB with their pick from SF? I bet if Run DMc were on the board they'd take him.

by BigTexBD on Jan 8, 2008 5:30 PM CST up 0 recs

Re:

I think the pats are always an ex-factor. Maroney is solid but not spectacular. Faulk is a serviceable back, nothing more. But I'm hard pressed to believe they would take DMac. Really, I'm hard pressed to think they'll hold onto that pick.

Tell me again why I follow sports?

by DisplacedTexan on Jan 8, 2008 5:39 PM CST up 0 recs

Re: Pats

Wouldn't you think New England would go secondary with their first pick? While there probably isn't anyone worth grabbing there at No. 7, I could definitely see them trading back and taking a DB later in the draft with their first pick.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Jan 8, 2008 9:07 PM CST up 0 recs

That would make sense...

but the Pats enjoy giving the middle finger to the "what they should do" crowd. Remember when they took Richard Seymour and people were talking about them taking him nearly a full round too early?

Should they take DMc? Nope. Will they? I'd put it at 50-50.

by MDC on Jan 8, 2008 9:31 PM CST up 0 recs

What Houston will do

I think Kubes is very firm on making sure this defense is solid and that starts with the secondary...look for us to select a DB (maybe Malcom Jenkins, Kenny Phillips, Aquib Talib, Mike Jenkins) with pick #18 and select a RB in round 3...i think Ahman, Dayne, and Walker all come into camp and 2 of 3 will be on the roster day 1....if ahman is healthy why wouldnt you want him back to run with new draft pick abnd either dayne or walker (we know kubes loves using multiple backs)...what are thoughts on a guy like jacob hester in round 3? not the feature back we need but a solid guy who can play rb/fb and plays with toughness and heart...can platoon him with walker and dayne/green to make a very formidable backfield...maybe jamal charles drops to round 3???

by curtisdisco on Jan 9, 2008 1:36 PM CST 0 recs

Re: Hester

I love the guy, but I'm not sure he'd be a great fit on a roster that already features Ron Dayne. I think we need someone at RB with the potential to hit home runs, and I don't see Hester as that type of RB.

The thought of Hester at FB in Houston, though? Now THAT'S intriguing.

Oh, and I agree with your assessment of the DB situation, except I'm still not sold that we'll go DB at No. 18. At this point, I think we're more likely to go LT; this draft is one of the deepest at that position that I can remember.

Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Jan 9, 2008 2:25 PM CST up 0 recs

And the congragation all cried Ahman

In spite of what that Einstein Mighty Dumbass Criminal might think, we don't need any more running backs, we need a whole secondary now, as the one we had which was barely adequate was shot down in flames this year.

It needs to be known, that a dumbass who could spend an entire season calling Richard Justice a dumbass ought to be man enough to take it just once while being a dumbass without banning the person pointing out what a dumbass he is while he being a dumbass.

The air reeks with the smell of pussy. I think Mr. Mittens needs to douche Mommies Darling Crybaby.

Anybody with a lick of common sense knows you can't just blitz Peyton Manning mindlessly.

It looks like they just might keep Richard Smith, so some of you might have to eat dumpster crow.

Oh when the defense play well he's a genius, without a whole secondary he's chopped liver.

by Tom on Jan 9, 2008 6:15 PM CST 0 recs

Tom

Look, if you have issues with Matt and his website then take it up with him. And if you don't like what he blogs, then don't give him the web-hit.

Don't bring all your dirty laundry to BRB. It's not the place for it.

We can be critical of the draft picks, but in the end we always support the new Texan.

by Shake on Jan 9, 2008 6:39 PM CST up 0 recs

Seconded

Plus, it's not entertaining in the least. Well, it might have been earlier, but now it's just boring.

by bigfatdrunk on Jan 9, 2008 11:04 PM CST up 0 recs

Re: Secondary Help

Keep in mind that Roc Alexander, Brandon Harrison, Glenn Earl, Dunta (?),and Jason Simmons should all return next year.

We don't have a lack of talent in the secondary, we were snakebitten and forced to play guys that should have been 3rd stringers.

Add in Demps and Bennett who both locked down jobs for next season, and I don't see how we can go secondary in round one.

I think the O-line or a trade down will be the answer for Smithiakibbs. We have a new scheme coming in, an o-line guru, and some question marks. No way we don't address it day one.

by Diesel on Jan 16, 2008 9:45 AM CST 0 recs