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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Could Gibbs polish these diamonds in the rough?

Fans would love to see Chris Williams or Branden Albert step in to solidify the LT spot on the Texans Oline.  It's been rumored that with a deep draft at OT, the Texans may look to later rounds to take their Tackle.  So who else could fill the need at LT?



Take a look at the graphs below and see which prospects stood out at the combine as good Zone Blocking prospects.

Star-divide

40 yard splits



Look a little deeper than the 40 time. See who showed burst in the first 10 yards. See who's surge held through 20 yards. See who finished strong across the 40 yard mark.





10 yds: Rarely do you expect any Olinemen to move more than 10 yds on a given play, so their initial burst off the ball is important. None of the tackles, even the elite ones, really separate.



20 yds: Here's where you start to see a 2nd gear, an extra push to drive the defender off the ball. The 3 elite tackles are all in the 2.9 range. Duane Brown, Jeremy Zuttah and Kirk Barton all a small cut above in the 2.8 range.



40 yds: Several later round tackles finish strong and do better than the elite tackles 5.1 range. Brown, Zuttah and Barton all finished with strong 5.0 times. You'd hope to see them finish blocks as well as get down field.



I look at the 40 for offensive lineman more as a measure of where exertion meets endurance. I'm more interested to see who has a consistent burst across 10, 20 and 40 yard splits.



Power



This graph compares upper body strength for the initial punch with lower body power for drive blocking and getting to the 2nd level. I'm looking for spikes that show a prospect excelling compared to other tackles in the draft.



Yellow = Bench Press Maroon = High Jump Purple = Long Jump



Jake Long is the class of the draft with 37 reps on the bench press and solid jumps. Kirk Barton's 34 and Jeremy Zuttah's 35 also showed a lot of upper body strength. Duane Brown doesn't show the same upper body strength, but obviously has a strong lower body.



Agility



Putting the 3 cone drill and the 20 yd shuttle on an XY grid gives a rough approximation of each prospects "feet". The hypothesis being that the more agile players will better handle edge rushers and be able to get to the 2nd level.





There's a big cluster of agile tackles in the lower left section of the graph. Brown, Zuttah and Barton are all tightly packed together showing themselves to be a little more agile than the rest. In Gibb's Zone Blocking scheme, agility is said to be a premium.



Numbers



Here's a raw look at the numbers I was working with.





Results



So after a little sifting, we find 3 diamonds in the rough. Maybe Gibbs could polish these prospects into solid Zone Blocking Olinemen.



Duane Brown





A tight end before he changed positions to Tackle. Having former TEs as bookends would probably work well in a Zone Blocking scheme. He doesn't have the top-end upper body strength, so he may be susceptible to the bull rush, but he does have the lower body strength to drive block in the running game. He's got the agility to keep up with Dwight Freeney.



Jeremey Zuttah



He's played LT, RG and RT for Rutgers. He led the way on Ray Rice's 2,000+ yd campaign. Most people consider him too small for a power scheme, a la Green Bay, but he seems ideal for an Alex Gibbs Oline. He's got upper and lower body strength. He can play multiple positions and he's a solid run blocker.



Kirk Barton





He may be a workout warrior, but by the numbers, he's the total package. He's played as a Right Tackle. With Eric Winston established on the right side of the line, Kirk Barton could try to transition to Left Tackle. He's got the strength and agility to hold up there. As a later round pick, he could serve as a solid backup for Winston if he doesn't make the transition.



The Texans may not take any of these guys, but remember them if the Texans pass through the first 2 rounds of the draft without taking a LT.



* I haven't had the opportunity to watch film on any of these players. This is purely a "by the numbers" analysis.

Comment 13 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Ahhhhh!
Numbers!  Graphs!  Statistic!

Tim what hath you wrought!?

Tell me again why I follow sports?

by DisplacedTexan on Apr 9, 2008 10:05 AM CDT reply actions  

Bravo
Although with all these graphs & number analysis, I'm pretty sure I stumbled into the wrong site.
We can be critical of the draft picks, but in the end we always support the new Texan.

by Shake on Apr 9, 2008 10:07 AM CDT reply actions  

Raising The Bar
marroncito and solis have brough their A game. I like all the analysis. gj.

by bullpen116 on Apr 9, 2008 10:41 AM CDT reply actions  

Awesome
Just awesome job, marroncito.

Of course, I'm a math guy at heart, so this is fun for me.

by bigfatdrunk on Apr 9, 2008 1:04 PM CDT reply actions  

Another Unbelievable Job
Who needs nonsensical rants when you get analysis like this?  Quick--someone get me some Zima!
Looking forward to a day when being a Texans fan doesn't mean that April is the highlight of my season...

by Tim on Apr 9, 2008 1:30 PM CDT reply actions  

Now I'm confused who I want?
This is really good analysis.  Does this mean we want Jonathan Stewart and Duane Brown or Chris Williams and Tashard Choice?

by danger man on Apr 9, 2008 3:21 PM CDT reply actions  

RB vision and zone blocking
i'd do a similar post on RBs in the draft, but i have no idea how to quantify a RB's vision. i guess it's something you have to get a sense of watching film. unfortunately, i don't have a lot of access to game film. if you can think of any way to quantify zone blocking RB's attributes, i'd love to put it up on the blog.

by marroncito on Apr 9, 2008 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

RB's
MAybe we can have them read the eye chart at the DMV.
I was in The Mitchell Report.

by txnpwrlifter on Apr 10, 2008 7:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

Projected Round
Nice work with the charts.

Can anyone post the projected draft round for these 3 guys?  (I'm not lazy - just thwarted by our evil corporate firewall)  Are they even going to be available in the 3rd 4th or 5th round?

Zuttah sounds like a good fit based on his stats and experience.  Then I noticed the ass-whooping he's putting on #43 in the photo.  Even if he's not really holding the guy's head to make sure he pops him right in the eye, I'm sold.

by bv on Apr 9, 2008 3:32 PM CDT reply actions  

projected rounds
nfldraftscout has Brown as a 2nd round prospect. I'd imagine he might be available in the 3rd. Zuttah and Barton are both listed as 4th round prospects.

by marroncito on Apr 9, 2008 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hell yeah
Zuttah gets my vote too - he's got that third arm growing out of his gut, delievering a shot to that dude's appendix.   That has ZBS written all over it.
To DE or not to DE... that is the question.

by SOLIS on Apr 9, 2008 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

Freaking awesome
Now to get some on-the-field stats worked up...

That's not being fair, I guess.  The great thing about the zoneblock system that Kubiak is instituting in Houston, is that it requires time to learn, so a team that is dilignet in planning ahead can focus on guys who have all the right TOOLS even (and sometimes especially) if they don't have a lot of experience, enough 'sand in their pants', or who bear the dreaded 'project' label.

And the converted TE aaspect is potentially huge.  Denver used to have formations for this a few years ago before "House" got hurt in an auto accident, where they lined up with essentially 6 olineman, a TE at FB and another TE on the weakside, and the defense would get tighter than a nun's....well the defense would get really tight to stop the run.

And then they would pass out of that formation.  It was awesome.

by Jeremy Bolander on Apr 9, 2008 5:20 PM CDT reply actions  

house formation
i've seen some formations like that in Madden. usually in the packers playbook. they're fun to run especially if you can get AJ matched up 1 on 1 on the outside. the only problem is that quick LBs can blow up any play out of that formation. anyone coming out of the backfield has to cover a lot of ground before they're making any positive yardage. the "house" formation has some of the same positives and negatives as screens do.

by marroncito on Apr 9, 2008 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

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