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[WSJ ($] - Can the Colts Upset the Bears?

Great piece by Allen St. John in today's Wall Street Journal print edition about the Super Bowl matchup.  I've been thinking for the past two weeks that the Bears continue to be disrespected by the national media, who is (somewhat understandably) swept away by their mad love affair with Dungy/Peyton.  I'm picking the Bears to beat the Colts on Sunday, and according to St. John, my prediction is a logical one, even if the meatheads at the WWL disagree (in a landslide).

Just a few tidbits that St. John points out:

  • 86% of the last 22 Super Bowls have been won by the team who gave up fewer points in the regular season.  The Bears gave up 105 points less than the Colts did.
  • No team has ever given up as many points as the Colts did this season (360) and won the Super Bowl.  
  • The Bears scored exactly as many points as the Colts did this season (427).  
  • Using the Pythagorean Wins theorem, which has correctly predicted the winner of 18 of the last 22 Super Bowls, the Bears are the favorite.  From a points scored:points allowed perspective, the Bears "earned" 12.36 regular season wins by outscoring their opponents by 172 points, while the Colts "earned" only 9.59 wins by outscoring their opponents by only 67 points.  As St. John points out, no team has ever won a Super Bowl with so few P-wins.
While I'm at it, one final note, purely the result of my own in-depth research: a mere six weeks ago, the Houston Freaking Texans defeated the Colts.  Need I say more?  The Colts have looked solid in defeating the Chiefs and Ravens and outscoring the Patriots, but they will not be able to beat a Bears team whose defense is dominant and offense and special teams are certainly productive enough to win this game.  Final score: Bears 31, Colts 23.