Official 2009 AFC Playoff Picture

Here is your updated AFC playoff picture after Week 16.

1. Indianapolis Colts (14-1): AFC South Champions; home field advantage
2. San Diego Chargers (12-3): AFC West Champions; first round bye
3. New England Patriots (10-5): AFC East Champions; own Strength of Victory tiebreaker over Cincinnati - for now.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5): AFC North Champions

New York Jets (8-7): clinch 5th seed with a win over Cincinnati (better in common games than BAL & DEN, head-to-head win over HOU). A Jets win ensures a NYJ-CIN matchup in the 1st round.
Baltimore Ravens (8-7): clinch 6th seed with a win at Oakland (head to head win over DEN)

Denver Broncos (8-7): clinch wild card berth with a win over Kansas City plus NYJ or BAL loss [although if they got into a 2 team tie with Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh gets the spot] (better conference record than HOU)
Houston Texans (8-7): clinch wild card berth with a win over New England plus losses by 2 of the following teams: BAL, NYJ, or DEN (better in common games than PIT)
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7): clinch wild card berth with a win at Miami plus losses by 3 of the following teams: NYJ, BAL, DEN, or HOU
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8): clinch wild card berth with a win over Cleveland plus losses by 4 of the following: NYJ, BAL, DEN, HOU, and PIT
Miami Dolphins (7-8): clinch wild card berth with a win over Pittsburgh plus losses by all of the following: BAL, NYJ, HOU, JAC (Denver's game has no bearing on Miami)

So to recap: Houston win + 2 of the following 3 losing: Baltimore, Denver, or NY Jets = Wild Card berth.

EDIT: Yes, there are tons and tons of ways to get in. The Wild Card spots could be almost any combination of 2 teams up there (except if Miami got in; then it could only be Denver with them). I tried to spell out playoff scenarios without going overboard.

2nd EDIT: Figured out tiebreakers. Adjusted to tiebreakers.