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Community Projection: Texans RB Du Jour

Continuing with where we left off last time...

Texans running backs had a terrible year last year. Steve Slaton was hurt early and was basically ineffective when he played. Ryan Moats mixed some mediocre play with a shredding of the Buffalo Bills. Arian Foster came on late and made a big difference against Miami and New England in the final two weeks of the season. Chris Brown...uhh...lets forget about Chris Brown. Fumbleitis plagued the Texans last year, but this is a new year! The interior line should be improved through the addition of Wade Smith and the growth of some youngsters, and Rick Dennison was brought in with a specific focus on fixing the running game. Will it work? This is what we ask you, the reader, to decide.

Will rookie running back Ben Tate impress Kubiak enough to take the reins early? Will Tate shrug off everyone in his path, including Mike Kerns' requests for a third date? Will Arian Foster show that last year was no fluke by holding the job all year and introducing a new classical music concert based solely on Pterodactyls? Will Steve Slaton come back, neck disc in place, and remind everyone that he was pretty damn good in his own right in 2008? Will Jeremiah Johnson come out a-shootin and wind up with enough pelts to make decent money and 500 yards on the side? Will Dennison revolutionize football with a Vonta Leach based run attack? That's all up to you.

Your mission, if you choose to accept it, is to predict the statistical line of the Texans running back with the most carries this regular season: rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and total fumbles (not lost fumbles, TOTAL fumbles). As a tiebreaker, you'll list which Texans running back that will actually be. I'll list the weighted formula behind the jump so as to not bore you, but the person who is closest to these numbers will receive... something Texans-related as a prize, should they be around after the season to claim it. I can't tell you what the prize will be, both because it would ruin the surprise and because I'm just planning to make it something on sale and random at Amazon for the free shipping, but believe me when I tell you that it will change your life.

I'll try and run an average of what we come up with as well in a few days. If we were a baseball site, here's where I would include a player's CHONE and PECOTA and ACRONYM systems, but to the best of my knowledge, there aren't really any companies doing that for free. Football Outsiders has a projection system, but as they've listed all three backs with about the same number of carries, that seems a bit fruitless. So, on that note, project away!

Oh, and just to clear things up for me:  Write "PROJECTION" as the subject of your actual projections. Thanks.

I'm going to stop accepting entries at 11:59 CT on Thursday, July 29, so I don't have to refer back to this thread since I'm going to be putting everything in a spreadsheet. You have until then.

Real simple here, I'll just dock you a point off for every touchdown and fumble you are off, and then an additional point will be docked for every 25 yards rushing you are off. Lowest number of points off takes home the...whatever the hell it'll be. First tiebreaker will be whoever picked the right RB, second tiebreakerwhoever was docked less on rushing yards, third tiebreaker will be whoever I like most.**

**-since I love you all, it'll be a coinflip.