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Community Projection: Andre Johnson

Andre Johnson, a wide receiver for the ages, added on to his legacy last season by leading the NFL in receiving yards for the second straight year, something no one had done since Jerry Rice. After a rough start on Revis Island, Johnson turned it on the rest of the year and dominated his defenders. Particularly if they were wearing Arizona Cardinals jerseys. It could have been a better year, which feels weird to say, if Johnson had just held on to more balls. His catch percentage dropped from a decent 67% in 2008 to a hard-to-look-at-and-figure-out-how-he-won-the-receiving-yards-crown of 59%. Will this rebound, or has Andre Johnson become a deep threat first and foremost? This is what we ask you, the reader, to decide.

Will Andre Johnson lead the league in receiving yards again? Will age hit him like a sack of bricks as Jakespeare runs all over defense? Will Johnson catch the crazy wide receiver disease that is so prevalent in the NFL today and moon someone after he scores a touchdown? Will touching Andre Johnson actually send someone to the moon this year? If it did, would Andre be benevolent and bring him back, or would he let the poor defensive back suffer? 

Your mission, if you choose to accept it, is to predict the regular season statistical line of Andre Johnson: receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and catch rate percentage. As a tiebreaker, you'll list which Texans receiver will finish with the second-most receptions on the team in 2010. Could be Jacoby Jones, could be Kevin Walter, could be Owen Daniels, could even be Andre Johnson. Your choice. I'll list the weighted formula behind the jump so as to not bore you, but the person who is closest to these numbers will receive...something Texans-related as a prize, should they be around after the season to claim it. I can't tell you what the prize will be, both because it would ruin the surprise and because I'm just planning to make it something on sale and random at Amazon for the free shipping, but believe me when I tell you that it will change your life.

I'll try and run an average of what we come up with as well in a few days. If we were a baseball site, here's where I would include a player's CHONE and PECOTA and BARTMAN systems, but to the best of my knowledge, there aren't really any companies doing that for free. Football Outsiders has a projection system, and they've predicted Andre Johnson's catch rate as 60% next year. So perhaps that will be a helpful barometer of things for you.

Oh, and just to clear things up for me. Write "PROJECTION" as the subject of your actual projections. Thanks.

I'm going to stop accepting entries at 11:59 PM CT on Thursday, August 5th, so I don't have to refer back to this thread since I'm going to be putting everything in a spreadsheet. You have until then.


Real simple here, I'll just dock you a point off for every touchdown and percentage point of catch rate you are off, and then an additional point will be docked for every 25 yards receiving you are off. Lowest number of points off takes home the...whatever the hell it'll be. First tiebreaker will be the correct wide receiver, second tiebreaker will be whoever was docked less on rushing yards, third tiebreaker will be whoever I like most.**

**-since I'm indifferent to you all, it'll be a coinflip.