There comes a time in life when a person has to look at his surroundings and say "Hey, I'm smarter than these people around me." Usually these people wind up failing, then going back to the place they started. But sometimes, these guys are right. Sometimes, they bust through and become amazing successes. Much like these people I'm about to name, who were extremely correct in their assessment of how certain players would do this season.
Yes folks, now is the time to talk about our good old community projections posts. Who was smarter than you? Let's find out!
Matt Schaub
End of season stats we care about: 4,370 yards passing, 24 TDs, 12 INTs.
Methodology: -1 point for every TD and INT the predictor is off by. -1 for every 50 yards the predictor is off by. Lowest number of points docked wins.
Tiebreaker(s): Lowest number of points docked off on yards, coin-flip.
Winner: DisplacedTexan, 4,468 yards (-1), 26 TDs (-2), 13 INTs (-1) = -4.
Runner Up: Ryan81, 4,364 yards (0), 28 TDs (-4), 13 INTs (-1) = -5 .
This projection's good and bad were separated by TDs. As long as you were somewhat close on yards, you were fine. Most people overprojected Schaub's TDs based on last season. In fact, the average of the projections yards and INTs were not far off at all (4,273, 12.5) but the TDs were waaaay up (31.2). Ryan81 and DT were two of four guessers to score within 5 points on TDs and INTs, and the other two, killtacular and houstonduckhunter, were off by many more yards in the negative. By 3 yards, DT avoids the tiebreaker and beat out Ryan81.
More behind the jump!
RB Du Jour (Arian Foster)
End of season stats we care about: 1,616 yards rushing, 16 TDs, 3 Fumbles.
Methodology: -1 point for every TD and fumble the predictor is off by, -1 for every 25 yards the predictor is off by. Lowest number of points docked wins.
Tiebreaker(s): Selecting the RB with the most yards (Winner: Foster), whoever was docked less points on rushing yards, coin-flip.
Winner: Bryan72706, 1250 yards (-14), 12 TDs (-4), 4 fumbles (-1) = -19 (edited)
Runner Up: Scorpions94, 1270 yards (-13), 8 TDs (-8), 4 fumbles (-1) = -22.
This projection post was made before Foster was named the starting running back, back when people thought there would be a committee. And uh, yeah, that worked out well for the Texans. Nobody came within 350 yards of Foster's total, and only five guessers were within the 350-500 range, so this was one purely on yards. Unfortunately, it would appear that Mr. 94 has not logged in for quite a bit. If you know him, poke him and tell him he won and the season is over so he doesn't have to hide anymore. The Texans can't hurt us again for another nine months.
Andre Johnson
End of season stats we care about: 1,216 receiving yards, 8 TDs, 62% catch rate.
Methodology: -1 for every TD and percentage point of catch rate the predictor is off by, -1 for every 25 yards the predictor is off by. Lowest number of docked points wins.
Tiebreaker(s): Selecting the receiver with the second-most yards on the team (Winner: Kevin Walter), whoever was docked less on receiving yards, coin-flip.
Winner: NoSafetiesNeeded, 1,246 yards (-1), 9 TDs (-1), 62% catch rate (-0) = -2.
Runner Up: ketchuppants7, 1,218 yards (-0), 11 TDs (-3), 65% catch rate (-3) = -6.
This one went on yards too, mostly because Johnson missed three games and that caused a lot of people to overshoot their projections. While there were quite a few people hovering around the area of correctness should Johnson have played those games, only a few were close to the yardage total that Johnson would get this year. Congrats to NoSafetiesNeeded, who was so close with his predictions for Johnson that he needed no safety. Someone wake him up and let him know.
Mario Williams
End of season stats that matter: 22 tackles, 9 sacks, (6 assists, 2 passes defensed, 0 interceptions, 1 forced fumble) = 9.
Methodology: -1 for every tackle, sack, and total ASS/PD/INT/FF the predictor is off by. +5 points if the predictor hits a number exactly.
Tiebreaker(s): Whoever predicted the lineman who will have the second-most tackles for the Texans this year (Winner: Antonio Smith), whoever was docked less points on tackles, coin-flip.
Winner: nolander, 38 tackles (-16), 14 sacks (-5), 8 other (-1) = -22.
Runner Up: thelundquist, 44 tackles (-22), 8 sacks (-1), 11 other (-2) = -25.
Because of Mario's injuries and a surprisingly low number of tackles, probably due to the aforementioned injuries, this became a contest of "how many tackles were you off by?". Most overshot this number by a good 30 tackles, and those who didn't were the ones in the driver's seat. The games played were a factor, yes, but the tackle numbers were off all season long anyway. Nobody hit the +5 bonus.
DeMeco Ryans
End of season stats that matter: 32 tackles, 1 sack, (22 assists, 2 passes defensed, 0 interceptions, 0 forced fumbles) = 24.
Methodology: -1 for every tackle, sack, and total ASS/PD/INT/FF the predictor is off by, +5 points if the predictor hits a number exactly.
Tiebreaker(s): Whoever predicted Brian Cushing's tackles closest (53), whoever was docked less points on tackles, coin-flip.
Winner: ChadillacSHSU, 85 tackles (-53), 1.5 sacks (-0.5), 37 other (-13) = -66.5.
Runner Up: JimboTexan, 98 tackles (-66), 2 sacks (-1), 31 other (-7) = -74.
I'm depressed. Lets move on.
Kareem Jackson
End of season stats that matter: 57 tackles, 2 interceptions, (13 assists, 10 passes defended, 0 sacks, 0 forced fumbles) = 23.
Methodology: -1 for every tackle, sack, and total ASS/PD/SACK/FF the predictor is off by, +5 points if the predictor hits a number exactly.
Tiebreaker(s): Whoever predicted Bernard Pollard's tackles closest (82), whoever was docked less points on tackles, coin-flip.
Winner: kstillwell_9, 56 tackles (-1), 2 interceptions (+5), 24 other (-1) = +3.
Runner Up: Joe25, 58 tackles (-1), 3 interceptions (-1), 22 other (-1) = -3.
kstillwell_9, in his one post on BRB, managed to be the only person on the board to reach a positive number in any of these contests. We don't know who he is, or why he decided to only make a prediction so uncanny on Kareem Jackson and then leave us, but my working theory is that he's some sort of seer. I believe it is time for us to have an expedition to find this sage, and then ask him what year the Texans will make the playoffs. He may be the only one who knows.
Your Houston Texans
End of season stats that matter: 6 wins, 390 points scored, 427 points allowed.
Methodology: -1 for every win, point scored, and point allowed the predictor is off by. +15 points if the predictor nails the correct number of wins for the Texans.
Tiebreakers: Whoever predicted the number of Texans divisional wins (3) closest, whoever was docked less points on points scored, coin-flip.
Winner: grungedave, 6 wins (+15), 365 PF (-25), 385 PA (-42) = -52.
Runner Up: Jordann, 9 wins (-3), 396 PF (-6), 374 PA (-53) = -62.
It all came down to pessimism, and grungedave, our fearless leader of the cynical brigade, was the only person on the board who picked the Texans to have a losing record. 15 points later, he was able to hang on and defeat Jordann for the title of "Person Who Knew Most About The Texans." Points scored was the big factor, as almost nobody fathomed the Texans defense would be quite this bad. Except for AllenOU, who predicted the Texans would allow even more points than they did, which is flabbergasting in its own right.
If you are a winner, you have a week to get in touch with me via e-mail (rivers dot mccown at gmail dot com) to arrange a mailing address to send your prize to. If I don't hear from you by 11:59 PM PT, on Sunday, January 23rd, I'm going to assume that you have declined your prize.
ENJOY WITH ABSOLUT RESPONSIBILITY®