Wherein We Combine Reality-Based Strategy With Fantasy-Based Hopes

I’m lucky that I have Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers on all my fantasy teams and can rely on them for winzzzzzzz ignore my own fantasy advice because I probably would have lost all three of my games last week if I had relied on wide receiver Derrick Mason or insider linebacker Brian Cushing as bye week fill-ins. 

From a game perspective, neither played poorly for your Houston Texans. In fact, many here seemed pleased with what we saw from Mason on quick notice. However, this is a fantasy perspective, and neither set the world on fire.

This week, Tennessee has an obvious fantasy target as Football Outsiders has them among the worst to defend...

...tight ends. At 27^th, few are worse at defending the tight ends (+23.1% DVOA) and for Houston, this should be an emphasized point in the gameplan (For the record, future opponents Jacksonville, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Carolina currently rank 25^th, 32^nd, 24^th, and 29^th in defending tight ends).

On the raw stats side of the ledger, tight ends have caught 22 passes (on 36 targets) for 263 yards and three touchdowns in five games against Tennessee. It’s also worth nothing that the Titans have allowed multiple tight ends to gain catches and yards in four of their five games, so Joel Dreessen is also a candidate to find some open space in the middle of the field.

If head coach Gary Kubiak were to highlight his vast collection of tight ends, and somehow that’s not as much as a lock as one would think, I would imagine they could both be in line for a big game – as Daniels and Dreessen had against Oakland (a combined 12 catches for 201 yards and a touchdown).

While I stare at that lofty ceiling, I’ll lay a more realistic prediction down for both of them for Daniels owners and people looking for a fill-in tight end due to bye weeks.

Owen Daniels – 6 catches (on 11 targets) for 74 yards and a touchdown; Everyone should start Daniels.
Joel Dreessen – 5 catches (on 6 targets) for 41 yards.  Not a bad option for a spot start, especially if you’re in a points-per-reception league.

That’s this week’s fantasy advice. Feel free to use the comments to talk about other fantastical predictions or dilemmas on this game or any others around the league.

Texans vs Titans coverage