It’s the weekend, so the smell of VapoRub is in the air as we set out to find a sleeper or two for the week.
Last week, I gave you the Houston tight ends as "sleepers" for a combined 11 catches, 115 yards, and a touchdown. I wasn’t close on catches (six), but they did go for 102 and a touchdown (although Joel Dreessen got the touchdown, as opposed to Owen Daniels). All in all, I feel as if that was some sound advice.
This week, the Texans go up against a top-10 defense in the Jacksonville Jaguars. There are some weaknesses, as was pointed out in the Deep Steel Blueprint and Behind Enemy Lines, but there is also one area that could produce a fantasy sleeper.
Who could be in line for a bigger game? What kind of blogger would I be if I couldn’t entice you to jump?
Kevin Walter, by virtue of his spot on the depth chart, is in line for a bigger game, potentially.
Like Houston, Jacksonville’s pass defense has also made the regression back to respectability – moving from 28th in 2010 to 6th so far this season (8th in Football Outsiders' DVOA). New safeties Dawan Landry and Dwight Lowery play a role in that improvement, as do experienced cornerbacks and a solid front seven.
All that said, Football Outsiders lists Jacksonville as 27th against number two receivers. The depth chart on HoustonTexans.com lists Walter as the second receiver. Of course, that depends on where they line up and who gets matched up with whom, but Jacoby Jones, given his big play ability, will likely draw the top cornerback.
Jacksonville’s coverage of number twos is easily their weak point on the pass coverage rankings. Tight end is second-worst at 18th in the league. If these stats hold true to form and Walter does draw the second cornerback as expected, I would pencil these numbers in for a prediction:
Kevin Walter--5 catches (on 7 targets) for 52 yards with an outside shot at a touchdown – in other words, a game very similar to the one he had in Baltimore. Since Andre Johnson went down with injury, Walter has clearly been a target and upped his performance.
I would advise playing Walter if you're in need of a spot start due to bye week madness, as he could have the kind of game that won't cost you the game, and during bye weeks you need that kind of spot starter.
As always, feel free to use the comments for all your fantasy football observations, speculation, and genius predictions.
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