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With a 10-5 outing last week, I've pole-vaulted myself into the Thrifty Thirty at #28 with an overall record of 58-34. It was a very eventful week with New England and New York showing us once again why it's very dangerous to bet on divisional games.... just 6% of Yahoo! users picked the Jets to win. Same with Miami and Buffalo (8%). Washington (17%) got on the winning track with a rare running game shootout against Chicago. Finally, Indianapolis (8%) might have finally "arrived" as a contender by upsetting Denver at home.
The NFL... she is a fickle beast.
The Top 10 leaderboard continues its weekly tos- up with a new points leader in Eggshellman; he unseated last week's leader, Swikky. STEELBLUE holds strong this week and retains his spot at 4th. Keep it up, homies.
| Rank | Pick Set Name | Total | Dropped | W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65 | 7 | 65-28 | |
| 2 | 63 | 7 | 63-30 | |
| 3 | 63 | 6 | 63-28 | |
| 4 | 63 | 7 | 63-28 | |
| 5 | 63 | 5 | 63-30 | |
| 6 | 62 | 7 | 62-31 | |
| 7 | 62 | 7 | 62-31 | |
| 8 | 61 | 6 | 61-32 | |
| 9 | 61 | 7 | 61-32 | |
| 10 | 61 | 7 | 61-30 | |
| 28 | Corzo | 58 | 7 | 58-34 |
And now for the picks! Spreads are included for convenience but not used in the selections.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6)
Carolina is sporting a top 5 worthy defense this year and facing a Bucs team that ranks 31st in yardage (298 per game) and points scored (14.5 per game). Star running back Doug Martin is also out for this game, giving Carolina an even clearer advantage. Winner: Panthers
Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (-3)
Such a mercurial team, Dallas is. I expected another shootout versus Philly last week; instead, they shut them down for a 17-3 victory (much of that was due to Matt Barkley's unexpected debut for Philly). I'll go with the team that seems to be humming along nicely. Winner: Lions
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Jason Campbell returns to a starting role for the Cleveland Browns. I want to pick this upset so badly, but I can't trust the Browns on the road. Winner: Chiefs
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-7)
The Patriots have struggled on both sides of the ball, going just 1 for 12 on third down last week and giving up a season high 30 points defensively. Ultimately, I trust the powers that be to fix it long enough to beat a Miami team with plenty of struggles of its own. Winner: Patriots
Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints (-11.5)
No reason to doubt New Orleans, especially after a bye week and at home against an inconsistent opponent like Buffalo. Winner: Saints
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)
Mike Vick will be back for Philly and with him a much more explosive offense. I think New York is improving, but they won't be able to stack 8 eight in the box like they did against Minnesota last week. Winner: Eagles
San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+16.5)
My survival pick this week. Whatever happened to "offensive weapon" Denard Robinson? I was legitimately hoping he'd do great things in a creative way in his rookie year. Oh, well. Winner: 49ers
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Benagls (-6.5)
The Bengals have won some tight games these past few weeks. They've got the offensive weapons and talent on defense to keep winning. No reason to not keep trusting them. Winner: Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Oakland Raiders (+2.5)
I'm calling the upset! The Raiders have some poor history after their bye (losing 10 straight) but I love the versatility that Terrelle Pryor can bring. If his offensive line got healthy over the break, I'm thinking they can upset a not-that-good Steelers squad. Winner: Raiders
Washington Redskins @ Denver Broncos (-13)
I'd be very afraid of Peyton Manning after a loss. Washington simply does not have the secondary to contend with Denver's offensive weapons-- especially with their two starting safeties out. Although Denver is sporting the league's worst pass defense (giving up 340 yards per game), much of that can be attributed to the fact that teams must pass the ball to keep up. I expect Denver to slow down the Redskins' running attack and take this victory. Winner: Broncos
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
I don't buy the Falcons losing to the Cardinals. Arizona sports a good defense but they get very little help from their offense. Atlanta proved they could make adjustments without their two star wide receivers. In Matty Ice I trust. Winner: Falcons
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (+9.5)
Looks like Christian Ponder is back in at quarterback for the Vikings...doesn't mean much overall. The Packers are pretty stout against the run this year, giving up just 79 yards a game, which means they have a great chance to completely shut down the Vikings' offense. Ponder must make them pay over the top. Signs are pointing towards that not happening. Winner: Packers
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+11)
With Sam Bradford out, the team internally considered Tim Tebow. Things are bad for the Rams. The Seahawks will roll. Winner: Seahawks
Survival League Pick: San Francisco 49ers
First of all, congrats to everyone for surviving another round. No one was eliminated for Week 7, so good on you. Once again, I find it impossible not to pick against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The "valiant effort" they put up against the Broncos two weeks ago was quickly followed up by a 24-6 beatdown at the hands of the Chargers. I expect more of the same against the 49ers.
I've included the Jaguars' full schedule below if you're planning on making your Survival Picks around them. This week will be my fourth time picking against them.
That's it for this week. Be sure to make your picks here and here to stay in the competition. Let us hear your picks and thoughts on this week's slate of games in the Comments section below.