FanPost

A Fan's Analysis of Houston's Recent NFL Drafts

Hope we aren't wishing for a mulligan this time next year, Houston... - Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

In light of Clowney's potentially apocalyptic surgery and the growing questions concerning our FO's ability to draft, I decided to take a look at Rick Smith's body of work up to this point.

Below you'll find my results, replete with armchair-QB commentary and factual errors I'm sure.

The formatting should be fairly straightforward, but let me clarify the "Still in League?" column.

It says... BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN?!
Yes (S) He's a regular starter!
Yes (NS) On a roster, but not 1st string.
Yes (NA) On a roster, but normally not active.
Yes (IR) On a team, but placed on IR.
No He's riding the couch.

Edited 12/11/2014: I made a few grade changes and cleaned up some formatting issues, but the biggest change is the "Objective" and "Subjective" ratings. Some people brought to my attention that my "Final Grade" lacked consistency, with some years getting a "2.0" and some getting a "5.0" with seemingly little letter grade differences.


Good call!


I've remedied that by splitting up my final grades.


The "Objective" Grade (with objective in quotes because it's objectively based on my own individual subjective player ratings) assigns each letter grade a value, adds them together, averages them, and scales that average to a 1-thru-10 value. The problem with this grade is that one strong player (J.J. Watt or DeAndre Hopkins) can offset an otherwise garbage draft. In reality, drafting one strong player doesn't excuse 8 other horrific picks.

The Subjective Grade takes that into account. It's my "gut feeling" grade of the draft that year. Blown picks, weak/strong picks and their location in the draft, and the like is all taken into consideration with this grade.

2006 NFL Draft (NOT RICK SMITH)

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes
1/1 Mario Williams DE 2006-11 Yes (S) Yes (3x) A+ Stud. Not ideal scheme fit - moved from DE to LB. Two soft tissue injuries - IR'd two consecutive years.
2/33 DeMeco Ryans LB 2006-11 Yes (S) Yes (2x) A Solid. Awesome guy on/off field. The "Rise of Cush" obsoleted him.
3/65 Charles Spencer OT 2006-07 No No F Broke his leg. Missed two seasons. Played 2 games his entire career.
3/66 Eric Winston OT 2006-11 Yes (NS) No B Was really good. Then he wasn't.
4/98 Owen Daniels TE 2006-12 Yes (S) Yes (2x) A- Far and away the best TE we ever had, he just started to get old.
6/170 Wali Lundy RB 2006 No No D Decent rookie season, cut the next year.
7/251 David Anderson WR 2006-11 No No C+ Nothing exciting.
  • Not a bad draft. Hard to predict a guy breaking his leg, but that was a big miss in the 3rd. Honestly, this was a very, very good draft, all things considered.
  • 2 defensive players, 5 offensive players.
  • Three Pro Bowl players, with seven appearances between them.
  • 4/7 players still on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).
  • 0/7 players still with team.
  • Objective Grade: 6.5 (not Rick Smith's doing)
  • Subjective Grade: 7.5 (again - this wasn't Rick Smith's doing)


2007 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes
1/10 Amobi Okoye DT 2007-10 Yes (NS) No F- Solid rookie season, but fell off a cliff the next year. Never lived up to his 1st-round pick.
3/73 Jacoby Jones WR 2007-11 Yes (NS) Yes (1x) B- The most hated man in Houston after muffing a punt and contributing heavily to our playoff loss to the Ravens. Went on to play for the Ravens and make some big things happen. Until this year. Now he sucks.
4/123 Fred Bennett CB 2007-09 No No C- Stepped in for Dunta Robinson when he was injured and was great! Regressed severely in '08 and practically disappeared in '09, though, and was cut. Probably would've made a good safety.
5/144 Brandon Harrison S 2007-08 No No D- A perplexing pick, since we really didn't have a need for another Safety. Looked passable on paper, but only lasted for one season before being cut.
5/163 Brandon Frye OT 2007-08 No No D- Was supposed to be a bit of a project. Wasn't. Never started a game his rookie season, and floated down the road the next year.
6/183 Kasey Studdard OG 2007-12 No No C+ Was a starter all of 2009, but that was his only contribution to the team. Granted, he is a 6th rounder.
7/218 Zac Diles LB 2007-10, 14 Yes (NS) No C This guy has been everywhere. HOU '07-10; STL, TB, IND '11; TEN '12; KC, TEN '13; CLE, HOU, CLE '14. That's six different teams. Wow.
  • Just... just bad. Look - when Jacoby Jones is the shining star of your draft class, you know something is wrong.
  • 4 defensive players, 3 offensive players.
  • One Pro Bowl player, with one first-team appearance.
  • 3/7 players still on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).
  • 0/7 players still with team.
  • Objective Grade: 4.0
  • Subjective Grade: 2.0


2008 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes
1/26 Duane Brown OT 2008- Yes (S) Yes (1x) A Brown has been the rock of our O-line for a long time now, and is regularly rated as either the best or one of the best LTs in the league.
3/79 Antwaun Molden CB 2008-10 No No F+ Perpetually injured, awful at coverage, and thus almost never saw the field. Had one solid season with the Patriots in '11, but has since fallen off the radar.
3/89 Steve Slaton RB 2008-11 No No C Blew up in '08, setting a franchise record for rushing yards that remained until '10. Fumbling, a neck injury, and general fatness spelled the end of his career.
4/118 Xavier Adibi LB 2008-10 No No C- A promising athelete who was thought to be a steal at the time. He wasn't.
5/151 Frank Okam DT 2008-10 No No D Another extremely promising prospect who failed to live up to his hype. Came into the draft with way too much weight. Fortunately, he was only a 5th-round pick. Accomplished practically nothing with the Texans.
6/173 Dominique Barber S 2008-11 No No C Started in '09 before being IR'd for a hamstring injury. Never came back to perform at a respectable level.
7/223 Alex Brink QB 2008-09 No No D- On the roster for days before being cut. Later resigned to the practice squad. Then cut again. The he was resigned. And then he was cut. Such is the life of a 7th-round QB.
  • Followed up a poor draft with an equally poor one. If it weren't for Brown, this draft would be a complete and total loss.
  • 4 defensive players, 3 offensive players.
  • One Pro Bowl player, with one first-team appearance.
  • 1/7 players still on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).
  • 1/7 players still with team.
  • Objective Grade: 4.5
  • Subjective Grade: 3.0


2009 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes
1/15 Brian Cushing LB 2009- Yes (S) Yes A Oh, Cush. Once the heart and soul of our defense, he's now on his way to playing his first full season w/o injury after being IR'd two consecutive years. Just hasn't looked the same, though. But he's picking up steam slowly.
2/46 Connor Barwin DE 2009-12 Yes (S) No B- IR'd in '10, then converted to OLB in '12 and had a breakout season. Unfortunately, he could never follow up up that performance... with us, at least. He's blowing shit up over in Philly.
3/77 Antoine Caldwell C 2009-12 No No C A solid center while he played with us.
4/112 Glover Quin CB 2009-12 Yes (S) No B+ An average to above-average CB-turned-Safety cut in the name of Ed "The Bamboozler" Reed. We miss you, please come back.
4/122 Anthony Hill TE 2009-10 No No D- Caught Swine flu, but could only manage to catch one pass as a Texan. Was supposed to be the blocking back to complement OD, but failed.
5/152 James Casey TE 2009-12 Yes (S) No B An extremely versatile and talented FB who really came into his own in '12 and '13. I think he's listed as a TE now?
6/188 Brice McCain CB 2009-13 Yes (NS) No C- Another guy who had no business starting. Ever. Not even in the Nickel. For the position he was drafted in, though, he wasn't a complete loss.
7/223 Troy Nolan S 2009-12 No No B- Promising start to his career with 3 INTs and a sack, but as with most things in the universe, a regression to the mean came shortly after.
  • Perhaps one of Smith's best drafts. Few misses, and plenty of talent all around. We let a lot of that talent walk, though...
  • 5 defensive players, 3 offensive players.
  • One Pro Bowl player, with one first-team appearance.
  • 5/8 players still on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).
  • 1/8 players still with team.
  • Objective Grade: 6.25
  • Subjective Grade: 8.0


2010 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes
1/20 Kareem Jackson CB 2010- Yes (S) No B He's had his ups and downs, but all things considered he's a very good CB. By the way, click his name and read the "Weaknesses" section. Holy shit, that's some Nostradamus-level prognosticating right there.
2/58 Ben Tate RB 2010-13 Yes (NS) No B- Boy, did we love Tate or what? Tate was a terrific complement to Foster, and seemed like he would be capable of running the show himself at times, but this year has shown that he can't outrun the injuries and inefficiencies that were masked playing as a backup.
3/81 Earl Mitchell DT 2010-13 Yes (NS) No C+ Not a "sexy" player stat-wise, but he wasn't terrible. Just never matched his preseason form. Playing well for the Dolphins, though.
4/102 Darryl Sharpton LB 2010-13 Yes (NS) No D+ Never recognized his potential - or potential potential - due to being in an almost constant state of disrepair.
4/118 Garrett Graham TE 2010- Yes (S) No B- He's no Snake Dick, but he's a middling TE with potential upside. If only we knew how to throw him the damn ball.
5/144 Sherrick McManis CB 2010-12 Yes (NS) No C- The epitome of a "special teams" guy. Never did much of anything with us.
6/187 Shelly Smith G 2010-11 Yes (NS) No D- Never played in the regular season.
6/197 Trindon Holliday WR 2010-12 No No C Really short, really fast, really shifty, and really prone to fumbles. Cut in 2012, went to the Broncos, and was the first player to return a punt and a kick for a TD in a postseason game. Still not a good WR.
7/227 Dorin Dickerson TE 2010-11 No No D+ Dressed for a few games, but never started. But, you know, he's a 7th-rounder.
  • No landmark players drafted, and plenty of lackluster picks.
  • 4 defensive players, 5 offensive players.
  • No Pro Bowl players. Ice Kareem is this group's only hope, and that's a long shot.
  • 7/9 players currently on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).
  • 2/9 players still with team.
  • Objective Grade: 5.25
  • Subjective Grade: 4.5


2011 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes
1/11 J.J. Watt DE 2011- Yes (S) Yes (2x) A+++ Undoubtedly one of the best picks the Texans have ever made.
2/42 Brooks Reed LB 2011- Yes (S) No C+ Doesn't live up to his 2nd round pick designation, but has performed consistently and has shown flashes at times.
2/60 Brandon Harris CB 2011-13 Yes (NS) No F+ Just awful. Never came remotely close to living up to being the 60th overall pick.
4/127 Rashad Carmichael CB 2011-13 Yes (NS) No D- As bad as (maybe worse than) Harris production wise, but was a slightly less costly mistake
5/144 Shiloh Keo S 2011-14 No No C+ Spent most of 2012 getting roasted, but stepped up and performed admirably last year after Bamboozlegate.
5/152 T.J. Yates QB 2011-14 Yes (NA) No C- Gave us our first playoff victory, and Akeem Dent. So thanks, T.J. Unfortunately, he was never good.
7/214 Derek Newton OT 2011- Yes (S) No B- You know, for a 7th round RT he performed about as well as you'd have expected during his "Hologram" phase. He has now appreciably improved, but still lapses back into that alternate "Wait, I'm supposed to be footballing?" dimension every so often.
7/254 Cheta Ozougwu DE 2011 Yes (NS) No N/A Mr. Irrelevant '11. He actually has 1 sack and a FF to his name! Not with us, though.
  • J.J. Watt is the only truly good player from this draft. Harris was a bust, Reed has been streaky, and the rest are either long gone or Derek Newton.
  • 6 defensive players, 2 offensive players.
  • One Pro Bowl players, with two first-team appearances.
  • 6/7 players currently on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).
  • 3/7 players still with team.
  • Objective Grade: 5.5
  • Subjective Grade: 3.5


2012 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes
1/26 Whitney Mercilus LB 2012- Yes (S) No B- Seems to be a very polarizing player for a lot of fans. Lots of promise, but not much initial production. He's gotten significantly better under RAC, though.
3/68 DeVier Posey WR 2012- Yes (NA) No D- Showed some promise, exploded his Achilles tendon, and has since vanished from the face of the Earth. Should have never been drafted in the 3rd anyway.
3/76 Brandon Brooks G 2012- Yes (S) No B+ According to PFF, he's one of the better LGs in the league. So that's good.
4/99 Ben Jones C 2012- Yes (S) No B Top Center prospect who transitioned RG and became starter. And a solid one, at that.
4/121 Keshawn Martin WR 2012- Yes (NS) No D Give me palpitations every time he returns the ball, and is a sub-par receiver overall.
4/126 Jared Crick DE 2012- Yes (S) No C Doesn't live up to the "Mini-Watt" moniker in my book. He's just sort of "there" most of the time. No explosiveness.
5/161 Randy Bullock K 2012- Yes (S) No D- In the grand scheme of things, he just isn't a good kicker. If you're going to be taken in the 5th round, and you're a kicker, you'd better be a damn good one.
6/195 Nick Mondek OT 2012-2013 No No D Literally never did anything.
  • Aside from a few wasted picks, this was a decent draft.
  • 2 defensive players, 5 offensive players, 1 stupid special teams player.
  • No Pro Bowl players. Mercilus is likely this group's only hope.
  • 7/8 players currently on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).
  • 7/8 players still with team.
  • Objective Grade: 5.0
  • Subjective Grade: 6.0


2013 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes
1/27 DeAndre Hopkins WR 2013- Yes (S) No A+ Great pick, and he's only getting better.
2/57 D.J. Swearinger S 2013- Yes (S) No C+ Shows flashes, but save for his penchant for big hits he doesn't bring much to the table. Too many missed tackles, and too many blown coverages.
3/89 Brennan Williams OT 2013-14 No No D- Promising draft pick who never saw the light of day due to injuries. Waived after failing to heal from the dreaded microfracture procedure.
3/95 Sam Montgomery DE 2013 Yes (NA) No F There were red flags everywhere concerning his demeanor and work ethic, but we took a shot... and we failed... miserably.
4/124 Trevardo Williams DE 2013-14 Yes (NS) No F Promising pick that was slated to fill Barwin's spot. Cut this year, and has bounced around to three different teams. Still no starts.
6/176 David Quessenberry OT 2013- Yes (IR) No C Broke his foot his rookie season in practice, and got diagnosed with cancer this year. Like Clowney, he's a talented guy who's faced some bad luck. Time will tell if he ever pans out.
6/195 Alan Bonner WR 2013- Yes (IR) No D Spent his first year on IR (as a Kubiak stash). Then he spent his second year on IR (because it's so cozy there).
6/198 Chris Jones DT 2013 Yes (S) No B+ Call it an "F" for post-draft decision making. Cut before the season start, and went on to record 54 combined tackles and 6 sacks for the Patriots. Because reasons.
6/201 Ryan Griffin TE 2013- Yes (S) No B- Given how late he was taken, he's performed decently. Better than Fiedorowhat'sheevendoinghere.
  • Quite possibly the worst draft I've ever seen - up there with the Redskins selling the farm for RGIII. Hopkins is the only real bright spot in this draft class. To have two 3rd rounders and one 4th rounder off the team within a year is absolutely unacceptable.
  • 4 defensive players, 5 offensive players.
  • No Pro Bowl players, but Hopkins may get there someday.
  • 5/9 players currently on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).
  • 5/9 players still with team.
  • Objective Grade: 5.0
  • Subjective Grade: 2.0


2014 NFL Draft

Drafted Player Name Position Time on Roster Still in League? Pro Bowl? Grade Additional Notes
1/1 Jadeveon Clowney DE 2014- Yes (IR) N/A D- Grading solely on his contribution this year, he'd be an F-. A lot of his woes are beyond his control, but as of right now - with the recent microfracture surgery - this was a colossal blunder by Smith.
2/33 Xavier Su'a-Filo G 2014- Yes (S) N/A C+ Started off slow, but that was outside his control. Looking much better now.
3/65 C.J. Fiedorowicz TE 2014- Yes (NS) N/A D Had high hopes for this, even though it seems like a stretch pick. Has bricklayer's hands and his blocking - purportedly his strong suit - has been severely lackluster. Enormous waste of a pick thus far.
3/83 Louis Nix III DT 2014- Yes (IR) N/A D- So promising, but already on his THIRD knee surgery. Waste of a pick so far. Hopefully he heals up and contributes in the future.
4/135 Tom Savage QB 2014- Yes (NS) N/A C- Somewhat unfair grading him, but so far he's contributed nothing and occupied a draft spot we could've used to fill holes elsewhere.
6/177 Jeoffrey Pagan DE 2014- Yes (NS) N/A C Sees very few snaps playing behind Watt and Crick, but he's not bad. Limited sample size.
6/181 Alfred Blue RB 2014- Yes (NS) N/A B+ Lacks the vision of above-average backs, but for a 6th round pick he's been great.
6/211 Jay Prosch FB 2014- Yes (S) N/A C+ A prototypical FB taken in an era when the position is all but dead.
7/216 Andre Hal CB 2014- Yes (NS) N/A B+ Given where he was drafted, Hal has performed admirably thus far.
7/256 Lonnie Ballentine S 2014- Yes (IR) N/A N/A He's Mr. Irrelevant, and he's sitting on the IR. Can't even grade him, really.
  • Definitely too early to be passing judgement, but so far a disappointing draft. XSF is slowly improving, but it'll take a lot more improvement to justify his 2nd round billing. The Polish Hat is more of an auxiliary RT than anything, Nix is already battling injuries, Savage is a longshot, and the rest (save for Ballentine) are decent late round picks. Unfortunately, that doesn't offset the lack of production from our first 5 picks.
  • 3 defensive players, 7 offensive players.
  • Obviously no Pro Bowl players yet.
  • 7/10 players currently on active roster (i.e., not on IR, PS, etc).
  • 3/10 players have contributed meaningfully this season.
  • Objective Grade: 5.25
  • Subjective Grade: 3.25

So where does that leave us?

Well, if you go by the Objective Grade, Smith has earned himself a 5 out of 10 (or a C).

If you go by my Subjective Grade things are a little more grim, with Smith earning a 4 out of 10 (or a D).

Maybe there's something to those that are calling for Smith's head? Best case scenario, he's been average at drafting and just had bad luck with injuries and, to a lesser extent, talent evaluation. But if you dig deeper, the problem becomes more apparent.

The Rick Smith era has been littered with poor picks, with a few very good ones standing out to lend him some credibility.

Here's a breakdown of my grades:

Grade # of Players Percentage
A+ 2 3.08%
A 2 3.08%
A- 1 1.54%
B+ 5 7.69%
B 3 4.62%
B- 8 12.31%
C+ 7 10.77%
C 8 12.31%
C- 6 9.23%
D+ 2 3.08%
D 5 7.69%
D- 11 16.92%
F+ 2 3.08%
F 2 3.08%
F- 1 1.54%

So Rick Smith has 5 excellent picks, 16 good picks, 21 average picks, 18 poor picks, and 6 horrible picks to his name. Let's keep the numbers rolling and take a look at his performance by draft round:

  • Smith has drafted 8 players in the 1st round, with an average grade of 7.75 out of 10 (or a B+).
  • Smith has drafted 6 players in the 2nd round, with an average grade of 6 out of 10 (or a C+).
  • Smith has drafted 11 players in the 3rd round, with an average grade of 5 out of 10 (or a C-).
  • Smith has drafted 12 players in the 4th round, with an average grade of 5.5 out of 10 (or a C).
  • Smith has drafted 8 players in the 5th round, with an average grade of 5.25 out of 10 (or a C-).
  • Smith has drafted 12 players in the 6th round, with an average grade of 6 out of 10 (or a C+).
  • Smith has drafted 6 players in the 7th round, with an average grade of 6.25 out of 10 (or a C+).

So the notion that Rick Smith is strong with his first overall pick and bottoms out in the mid rounds is actually pretty accurate.

Now look - I understand that drafting is a very difficult task to undertake. You can't predict how a player will pan out with a team with 100% accuracy, and you certainly can't predict freak injuries. At some point, though, you have to begin to call into question the man behind the drafting.

Is it getting to that point?

Let me know your thoughts! Does Rick Smith deserve to remain safe another year, or is it time to start making some changes in the FO?