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NFL: Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
You guys hear? The 2DH is back!
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I remember where I was when the idea for the original Two-Day Hangover column took shape. It was August of 2010, and I was sitting under a palapa in Manzanillo, Mexico, when I got an e-mail from the then-editor of SB Nation Houston, Tom Martin, who wanted to know if I would like to do some kind of column for that site. He explained that it could take whatever form I wanted, from angry ranting to something stats-based or anything in between.

I immediately knew that I wanted to write the kind of column that I always liked to see – something that mixed football, humor, pop culture, random information, and the occasional angry or contrarian rant. I emailed Tom back, told him I’d be happy to do it, and described what I was envisioning. He liked the idea, and the Two-Day Hangover was born.

After a season at SB Nation Houston, I moved the 2DH to the friendly confines of Battle Red Blog, where the column existed in earnest from 2011 through 2013. By 2014, however, it sort of tailed off in late September for any number of reasons, and it disappeared. There were occasional attempts to revive it over the following seasons, but they never went anywhere, mainly because I was either too busy, my heart wasn’t in it, or I was just being lazy.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the 2017 season: I realized that I really did miss writing this column. I started looking through the old posts and finding the occasional line or joke or entire paragraph that I was legitimately proud to have written. More accurately, I remembered how much fun the posts were to write and discuss. I wanted that back.

I mention all of that thinly veiled self-fluffery both as a way of introduction to the newer readers and, more importantly, to say…

/cranks some appropriate Slim Thug

The Two-Day Hangover is back, baby!

Will it last a whole season? Who knows?! Tim has his doubts for sure! But whatever; those concerns are for another day. For today, at least, let’s shake off the rust and jump right in like we know what we’re doing.

***

3.

Yards needed by DeAndre Hopkins (4,615) to pass Owen Daniels for second on the Texans’ all-time receiving yardage list.

8,983.

Yards needed by Hopkins to pass Andre Johnson for first on that same list.

55.

Catches needed by Hopkins (331) to pass Daniels for second in that category.

This week in “Hey, Wanna Feel Old?”

Ralph Macchio is 55 years old. Which is four years older than Pat Morita (Mr. Miyagi) was when Karate Kid came out in 1984.

The Karate Kid came out closer in time in to when Singin’ In The Rain (1952) was released than to today.

Will Smith is 48 years old. Which is four years older than James Avery (Uncle Phil) was when The Fresh Prince of Bel Air debuted in 1990.

The Fresh Prince of Bel Air debuted closer in time to when Gilligan’s Island debuted than to today.

.5.

Number of sacks that J.J. Watt (76.0) is ahead of Ray Childress for most sacks all time by someone wearing a Houston uniform.

5.

Number of times, not counting his rookie season, that Watt has gone at least two consecutive games without a sack. His longest stretch over that period was four games in 2013, but he also had a three-game stretch in 2015, and that season turned out alright for him (including a league-leading 17.5 sacks).

3.

Number of passes defended that Watt (46) needs to pass Glover Quin for fourth in team history.

12.

Approximate number of times last night that I cursed Rick Smith for letting Glover Quin leave. I still recall late 2010 when BFD texted me, “Glover Quin could be an elite safety. Not just good. Elite.”

173.

Number of tackles that Watt (305) needs to pass DeMeco Ryans for most in team history.

Fight for life, not points.

For some reason—most likely because I hang around weird people—I’ve heard from two different people in the last month that the crane kick win in The Karate Kid (spoiler, I guess?) was a plot hole because “kicks to the head are illegal.” This assertion is based on…urban legend, I guess, and propelled by random posts like this one saying that we (the viewers) are explicitly told that the rules of the tournament ban kicks to the head.

Except, you know…we aren’t told that at all.

When Daniel, Ally, and Miyagi arrive at the tournament, Daniel asks what the rules are, and Ally explains that “everything above the waist is a point; you can hit the head, the sternum, the kidneys, and the ribs.” Over the course of the tournament, we see multiple fights—including at least two featuring archetypal 1980’s bad guy Johnny—where a point is scored via a kick to the face or head. To wit:

Besides which, as far as I can tell, there was no mandatory rule-making body for open karate tournaments in California in 1984. (Yes, I spent WAY too long looking into this.) Meaning that the dojo or group that was putting on the tournament could modify “standard” rules if they wanted to.

So, no, Johnny wasn’t robbed, and Daniel shouldn’t have been disqualified. Next person to suggest it is getting a crane kick to the face.

“Why the hell are you writing about a 33-year-old movie?”

Aww…you’re relatively new here, aren’t you? Welcome! Full disclosure: it’s not always old movies that most of you haven’t watched in a decade or more. It’s also frequently about Disney movies or time-travel or BBQ or 1990s rap videos or random commercials that annoy me or basically whatever pops into my head or comes across my radar in a given week that I find interesting.

8.

Number of wins, including the playoffs, that the Texans have over the Cincinnati Bengals, which is more than they have against any team other than Tennessee (14) and Jacksonville (19).

Basketball and Other Things.

If you have been here long enough, you recall when Shea Serrano was posting hilariously off-beat FanShots at BRB under the name “Liston.” Anyone who saw that early work certainly hasn’t been surprised with Shea’s later successes as a writer. His new book, Basketball And Other Things,” comes out in October, and he is actively trying to have more pre-orders for the book than Kobe Bryant had points in the NBA. I ordered a copy this morning, and I really see no reason that anyone who likes basketball, humor, sports, and/or good writing should not do the same.

But, if you STILL need convincing, there’s also the fact that Shea (a former teacher) routinely uses his public platform to raise money and supplies for teachers and classrooms, women’s shelters, food banks, LGBTQ youth centers, and--oh yeah--he also raised $132K for Hurricane Harvey relief. So, seriously, order BAOT and support a legitimately good dude who does a whole lot for a whole lot of people.

2,731.

Number of passing yards needed by Tom Savage (650) to pass Sage Rosenfels for third-most in team history.

424.

Number of passing yards needed by Deshaun Watson (227) to pass Tom Savage for eleventh-most in team history

238.

Sacks needed by Savage (12) to pass David Carr for first all-time in Texans’ history. So...roughly three more starts.

Undefined.

Ratio of Savage’s career INTs (1) to TD passes (0).

105.

Career attempts by Savage.

3; 42.

TDs and attempts, respectively, by Brandon Weeden while a member of the Texans.

8.

Number of Texans players with fewer attempts, but more TDs, than Savage. This includes Cecil Shorts III and Arian Foster, both of whom threw TDs on their only attempts, as well as Weeden, Watson, Jake Delhomme, Matt Leinart (!!!), Jabar Gaffney, and James Allen.

Third-Rail Blogging.

For a few days now, grungedave and I have been trying to come up with a way in which it makes sense to have Tom Savage on your roster rather than Colin Kaepernick. Or, perhaps more accurately, trying to find a justification for not signing Kaepernick that isn’t because of the obvious thing that it’s totally about.

In that light, however, forget everything you know about Kaepernick’s actions vis-à-vis the national anthem and his political activism and all that. Just looking at it from a numbers perspective, you have a guy who is 29 years old, has been to a Super Bowl, and has put up the following numbers on a team that, Super Bowl season aside, was anywhere from below average to terrible most of the time. (Case in point: he had 16 TDs and only 4 INTs last season, even though his primary targets were often guys like Jeremy Kerley and Quinton Patton.)

59.8% completion rate with 1,692 attempts and 12,271 yards (7.2 yards/attempt). That yardage total, by the way, ranked him 25th in career yards among active QBs at the end of last season. He’s thrown 72 TDs to only 30 INTs (and he has the second-lowest INT% in league history).

He has also carried the ball for 2,300 yards and 13 TDs. If we exclude the 3 games (5 attempts, 33 total yards) that he appeared in briefly in 2011, Kaepernick’s per-16-game line looks like this:

2,966 passing yards, 558 rushing yards, 18 passing TD, 3 rushing TD, 8 INTs.

Keeping in mind the sample-size issue with Tom Savage, his per-16-game line projects out to:

1,733 passing yards, 16 rushing yards, 0 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs, 3 INTs.

Obviously, that comparison is flawed a bit because of Savage’s zero career TD passes, but it’s also helped because of his one career INT. Even if you assume Savage would be better than those yardage projections show, I don’t think anyone can say with a straight face that his yardage would come close to Kaepernick’s projections, and we’ve seen nothing to suggest that his TD total would compare favorably either.

Then there’s this wrinkle: I think the concept of a player being a “mentor” to a younger QB is a tad overblown, but—even if you assume, for the sake of argument, that Kaepernick is an uber-jerk and would not share any information with Deshaun Watson—who do you think Watson would learn more from just by watching?

“But wait,” you might be saying if you are the kind of person who argues with your computer screen while reading online, “Kaepernick’s numbers are misleading because of the system he played in!”

To which I would say, “Oh, really?” Because his career adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) of 7.3 would rank him ninth among active players, right behind Matt Ryan (7.42) and ahead of Cam Newton (7.16) and Andrew Luck (7.04). His career adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.07 would rank him fifteenth among active players, just behind Newton’s 6.11 and ahead of Eli Manning (5.95). For comparison, Tom Savage’s career AY/A of 5.8 would slot him between Josh McCown and Chad Henne, and Savage’s ANY/A of 4.54 would be tied with Bubby Brister for 129th in NFL history if Savage had enough attempts to qualify. Though with an ANY/A of 1.53 this season, Savage might be looking up at Brister if Tom got more attempts.

By my count, the only areas where Savage has an appreciable edge on Kaepernick is in his Standing For The National Anthem Percentage. While we can debate how important that particular number is in the abstract, it is much harder to seriously argue that Kaepernick would not have been a huge upgrade over Savage this past offseason. Yet I have no doubt whatsoever that Kaepernick was never even considered for this Houston Texans team. Ugh.

171.

Number of field goals made needed by Ka’imi Fairbairn (2) to pass Kris “Shankapotamus” Brown for first in team history. Under the current offensive regime, Fairbarin should reach that total sometime around Week 11.

Tweets of the Week.

Gratuitous “Lonesome Dove” Quote.

“My main skills are talking and cooking biscuits,” Augustus said. “And getting drunk on the porch.”

Marijuana Pepsi Sawyer Inexplicable Decision Of The Week.

[Author's note: It's a sad day in Two-Day Hangover Land. It seems that Marijuana Pepsi Sawyer has gotten married and changed the name on her public profile to the slightly more professional sounding, "Marijuana Sawyer." Dang. Thankfully, we have a long memory around here, at least when it comes to stuff like this, so we'll just forge ahead and pretend like nothing has changed.]

Much like the decision to name your daughter "Marijuana Pepsi," Tom Herman’s decision not to go for two after the Longhorns scored a touchdown in overtime was baffling. You have a freshman QB who has been playing lights out for much of the second half, but he’s still a freshman on the road against a very aggressive defense that has been in his face the whole game. If you go for two and make it, you win; if you fail, you lose. But in either scenario, you aren’t putting the freshman out there again immediately after a 5 or 6-minute drive and saying, “Great job on that TD—do it again right now, please.”

Besides, and far more importantly in my mind, the math there is just better. Two-point conversion attempts, depending on who you ask, have a success rate of somewhere between 45% and 63% (the latter number coming from the success rate of teams once forced to go for two starting in the third overtime). If we split the baby and assume a success rate of 54%, that is still a higher percentage than the historical percentage of scoring 7 points when going first in any subsequent overtime period (39%). And all of those numbers do not expressly take into account a scenario where you’re asking a freshman QB to put together back-to-back overtime TD drives on the road. Could he have done it? Possibly. But the smarter play would have been not to ask him to do it in the first place.

Request.

So…here we are. Back in the saddle for (I hope) the rest of this season. In past years, this column has featured primers on food, especially regional BBQ variations, but we’ve explored that to death at this point. So…talk to me, Goose. What’s another food topic you’d like to explore and get recipes for?

Secondly, I am going to roll an abbreviated mailbag into the 2DH, answering one or two questions each week. Which means, I need questions. You know the drill: e-mail me a question with “Mailbag” or “BFD’s panty collection” or something else catchy in the subject line. Send the questions to mattycamp at gmail dot com.

Parting Shot.