Traditional power rankings suck, dude. They overreact to one HUGE signing and one sad! departure. Rarely do they take in account the entire offseason, or even the resources each team currently has. To give a more accurate representation of what’s going on and where these teams currently stand, I will not equivocate or give into the yank of heartstrings the NFL offseason brings.
Instead, here’s where all 32 teams rank when taking account their 2019 offseason, and the resources they have available.
Here’s part one in case you missed it:
16.) Pittsburgh Steelers—Record: 9-6-1. Point Differential: +68 (11). DVOA: 11.2% (9). Previously 13th.
Departures: Marcus Gilbert (OT), Antonio Brown (WR), Le’Veon Bell (RB), Morgan Burnett (S), Jesse James (TE).
Additions: Steven Nelson (CB), Donte Moncrief (WR), Mark Barron (LB).
Cap Space: $6,930,001
Draft Picks: 1 (20), 2 (52), 3 (66, 83), 4 (122), 5 (141), 6 (175, 192, 207), 7 (219).
Here’s a disclaimer for part two. This is really damn hard. Last year’s best teams stayed the same, or seem to have gotten worse. The ones in the middle who made the jump have lumps. The teams that should have made the big splashes reclined by the pool and read their book. Like the dog on the telephone, I have no idea what I’m going.
The Steelers as of now look worse. Can JuJu Smith-Schuster be a WR1? Can James Washington step up? How will they replace Marcus Gilbert? Can Ben Roethlisberger stay healthy foe another season? Can the pass rush keep making up for their torched secondary? Does anyone even want to play here? This team has legitimate locker room issues, plenty of questions, and have the highest variance of any team out there.
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars—Record: 5-11. Point Differential: -71 (24). DVOA: -8.1% (22). Previously 21st.
Departures: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE), Kai Forbath (K), Carlos Hyde (RB), Tashaun Gipson (S), Malik Jackson (DT), Jeremy Parnell (OT), Carson Tinker (LS), Donte Moncrief (WR), Ereck Flowers (OT), Blake Bortles (QB), Chris Reed (OG).
Additions: John DeFilippo (OC), Nick Foles (QB), Geoff Swaim (TE), Cedric Ogbuhei (OT), Chris Conley (WR), Jake Ryan (LB).
Cap Space: $16,917,911
Draft Picks: 1 (7), 2 (38), 3 (69, 98), 4 (109), 6 (178), 7 (236).
The Jags coughed up a hair ball of Jackson, Parnell, and Gipson to create enough room in their stomach to devour Nick Foles. The pass defense, even with the losses, should improve next season. Natural regression, Barry Church, and A.J. Bouye’s injury hurt last year. They need Taven Bryan to fill in for Jackson, and Ronnie Harrison should be better than Church was last season.
The Jags put themselves in the same situation as Minnesota though. Foles has a cap hit of only $12 million this year, but they had to give up talent so they can give him $22 million next season. They need Foles to carry the offense on his own. If he can do this, with this defense, and a healthier power run game, the Jags can pounce back.
14.) Dallas Cowboys—Record: 10-6. Point Differential: +15 (14). DVOA: -5.2% (21). Previously 11th.
Departures: Scott Linehan (OC), Terrance Williams (WR), Randy Gregory (EDGE—SUSPENDED), David Irving (DT), Cole Beasly (WR), Geoff Swaim (TE), Damien Wilson (EDGE).
Additions: Kellen Moore (OC), Jason Witten (TE), Christian Covington (DT), Kerry Hyder (DE), Randall Cobb (WR), George Iloka (S).
Cap Space: $13,078,000
Draft Picks: 2 (58), 3 (90), 4 (128, 136), 5 (165), 7 (241).
Dallas had a top ten defense and whatever offense last season. It felt like they won more games than they should have. They haven’t done much this season to change those feelings. This is the last season Dallas gets to pay Dak Prescott almost nothing. They better take advantage of it.
13.) Seattle Seahawks—Record: 10-6. Point Differential: +81 (10). DVOA: 6.7% (12). Previously 10th.
Departures: Earl Thomas (S), Justin Coleman (CB), Shamar Stephen (DT), J.R. Sweezy (OG), Mike Davis (RB), Brett Hundley (QB), Maurice Alexander (LB).
Additions: Jason Myers (K), Mike Iupati (OG).
Cap Space: $12,683,195
Draft Picks: 1 (21), 3 (84), 4 (124), 5 (159).
Every offseason I think this is the offseason the Seahawks put a better offensive line around Wilson so he doesn’t have to ride a motorcycle through traffic when he drops back. It didn’t happen again this offseason. Eventually it’s going to destroy them. Seattle is banking on continued growth from their young defense and Wilson’s downfield throwing ability.
12.) Baltimore Ravens—Record: 10-6. Point Differential: +102 (6). DVOA: 17.0% (6). Previously 7th.
Departures: Ozzie Newsome (GM), Marty Morninweg (OC), Joe Flacco (QB), Michael Crabtree (WR), Alex Collins (RB), Eric Weddle (S), C.J. Mosely (LB), Za’Darius Smith (EDGE), Terrell Suggs (EDGE), John Brown (WR),
Additions: Eric DeCosta (GM), Greg Roman (OC), Mark Ingram (RB), Earl Thomas (S), Justin Bethel (CB).
Cap Space: $15,982,422
Draft Picks: 1 (22), 3 (85, 102), 4 (113, 123), 5 (160), 6 (191, 193).
The NFL is better when there are teams doing so many different things. I missed the 49ers old early 2010s power run scheme. Praise be it’s coming back in Baltimore with Greg Roman running it with Lamar Jackson. I can’t wait for more of the four backfield sets, all the secondary blockers, the pulling, the play action, and the quarterback designed runs.
They lost a lot on defense, but it’s hard to tell with Baltimore. They have so many monstrous front seven players that it’s impossible to tell if any of them are worth paying up for. Each one seems more like a cog in a barbaric machine, than individual impact talents. We’ll see if anything comes splitting open.
11.) Cleveland Browns—Record: 7-8-1. Point Differential: -33 (20). DVOA: -3.0% (18). Previously 15th.
Departures: Gregg Williams (HC), Tanner Vallejo (LB), Jamie Collins (LB), Jabril Peppers (S), Darren Fells (TE), Tyrod Taylor (QB), Breshad Perriman (WR), Briean Boddy-Calhoun (CB).
Additions: Freddie Kitchens (HC), Todd Monken (OC), Steve Wilks (DC), Kareem Hunt (RB), Kevin Zeitler (OG), Jabril Peppers (S), Sheldon Richardson (DT), Odell Beckham Jr. (WR), Adarius Taylor (LB), Demetrius Harris (TE), Eric Kush (OG/OC), Kendall Lamm (OT), Bryan Witzmann (OG). Phillip Gaines (CB).
Cap Space: $35,147,728
Draft Picks: 2 (49), 3 (80), 4 (119), 5 (144, 155, 170), 6 (189), 7 (221).
The biggest offseason goes to the Browns, and they still may not be done. They have $35 million in cap space. Congratulations to them for taking advantage of Baker Mayfield’s rookie contract. From a talent perspective, the Browns match up with everyone. Yet, it’s still the Browns. Doesn’t it just feel like this whole thing is going to self combust like that Incubus song?
10.) Indianapolis Colts—Record: 10-6. Point Differential: +89 (8). DVOA: 12.6% (8). Previously 8th.
Departures: Matt Slauson (OG).
Additions: Devin Funchess (WR), Justin Houston (EDGE).
Cap Space: $74,910,489
Draft Picks: 1 (26), 2 (34, 59), 3 (89), 4 (129, 135), 5 (164), 6 (199), 7 (240).
The Colts are in a fantasy auction draft and refuse to make a pick until 25 players have come off the board. Then they can grab anyone they want now. The Colts added Funchess and Houston, haven’t lost anyone from last year’s squad, and resigned players like Mark Glowiniski, and Pierre Desir from last season. Ndamukong Suh, Ezekiel Ansash, Timmy Jernigan, trading a pick to take on salary, it’s all available for them. It’s their time to bully around the rest of the league.
At the same time, it’s disappointing for a team to have this much cap space, as much young talent they have, and the season they had last year only to say nah to the big wave.
9.) Houston Texans—Record: 11-5. Point Differential: +86 (9). DVOA: 7.1% (10). Previously 9th.
Departures: Demaryius Thomas (WR), Kevin Johnson (CB), Christian Covington (DT), Tyrann Mathieu (S), Kareem Jackson (DB), Kendall Lamm (OT).
Additions: Tim Kelly (OC), Tashun Gipson (S), Briean Boddy-Calhoun (CB), Bradley Roby (CB), Darren Fells (TE), A.J. McCarron (QB), Matt Kalil (OT).
Cap Space: $43,244,891
Draft Picks: 1 (23), 2 (54, 55), 3 (86), 5 (161), 6 (195), 7 (220).
The Texans have Deshaun Watson on a rookie contract, and they opted to take the Colts’ route to improve this offseason. Now is the time to spend and put money into the roster in a way that will be impossible to do in two seasons. They didn’t. They let impact players like Rodger Saffold, Sheldon Richardson, and others go elsewhere. Houston is pretty much the same as they were last year, but will have to play a much tougher schedule than last year. Aside from Blackson and McCarron, I like all of their moves. I just wish they did more. The offseason isn’t over yet, but they’ll need to make some dramatic improvements in the draft, and in the waning days of free agency.
8.) Philadelphia Eagles—Record: 9-7. Point Differential: +19 (T-12). DVOA: 0.0% (15). Previously 12th.
Departures: Nick Foles (QB), Timmy Jernigan (DT), Stefen Wisniewski (OG), Haloti Ngata (DT), Golden Tate (WR), Jordan Matthews (WR), Jordan Hicks (LB).
Additions: Desean Jackson (WR), Malik Jackson (DT), L.J. Fort (LB), Andrew Sendejo (S), Vinny Curry (DE).
Cap Space: $25,900,004
Draft Picks: 1 (25), 2 (53, 57), 4 (127, 138), 5 (163), 6 (197).
One of my favorite movie tropes is the on-screen fictional being with water up to their neck. There’s usually a metal grate above their head. Floatsam are rubber duckies. Gasping. They are frantic and struggling and looking for an escape. One deep gulp and they go under. The door doesn’t budge. Yet, somehow, someway, miraculously they are able to escape and drink in sweet oxygen.
This is the Eagles every offseason. They come into it with a rigid balance sheet, and always find creative ways to improve. Their additions were perfect. The Foles/Wentz thing last year was eerie though. I don’t know what to believe or think.
7.) Green Bay Packers—Record: 6-9-1. Point Differential: -24 (19). DVOA: -3.1% (19). Previously 18th.
Departures: Joe Philbin (HC), Antonio Morrison (LB), Nick Perry (EDGE), Clay Matthews (EDGE), Jake Ryan (LB), Randall Cobb (WR), Bashaud Breeland (CB), Kentrell Brice (S).
Additions: Matt LaFleur (HC), Nathaniel Hackett (OC), Preston Smith (EDGE), Adrian Amos (S), Za’Darius Smith (EDGE), Billy Turner (OG).
Cap Space: $13,724,767
Draft Picks: 1 (12, 30), 2 (44), 3 (75), 4 (114, 118), 5 (150), 6 (185, 194), 7 (226).
Green Bay had a spectacular interior rush with Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels, and Blake Martinez blitzing. Now they added the two best exterior pass rushing options available to them this offseason and Adrian Amos. This could be one of the five best pass rushes in the league. Aaron Rodgers is back. Even if LaFleur had a crappy offense in Tennessee, it’s a safe leap in logic that Green Bay’s offense will be better than it was last year with Mike McCarthy gone. Oh, and they have four picks in the top 100.
6.) Los Angeles Chargers—Record: 12-4. Point Differential: +99 (7). DVOA: 22.7% (3). Previously 4th.
Departures: Corey Liueget (DT), Jahleel Addae (S), Tyrell Williams (WR), Darius Philon (DT), Jason Verrett (CB).
Additions: Thomas Davis (LB), Tyrod Taylor (QB).
Cap Space: $10,259,907
Draft Picks: 1 (28), 2 (60), 3 (91), 4 (130), 5 (166), 6 (200), 7 (242).
I don’t know dude. I’ll never be able to get last year’s Divisional Round game out of my head. The Chargers are posers.
5.) Los Angeles Rams—Record: 13-3. Point Differential: +143 (3). DVOA: 23.7% (2). Previously 2nd.
Departures: John Sullivan (C), Mark Barron (LB), Rodger Saffold (OG), LaMarcus Joyner (S).
Additions: Eric Weddle (S), Blake Bortles (QB), Clay Matthews (EDGE).
Cap Space: $8,358,759
Draft Picks: 1 (31), 3 (94, 99), 4 (133), 5 (169), 6 (203), 7 (251).
No one knows what’s wrong with Todd Gurley. They lost their starting guard and center, integral pieces to their offense and outside zone scheme. Jared Goff is home schooled can’t do anything on his own. In a strange way their defense depends on Aqib Talib. Marcus Peters hates tackling. The Patriots stamped out their offense and the tape is now out there. I’m expecting for either San Francisco or Seattle to leap frog them next season. It’s only March. It’s too early to be the that muy muy muy calienete.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs—Record: 12-4. Point Differential: +144 (2). DVOA: 33.0% (1). Previously 3rd.
Departures: Bob Sutton (DC), Dee Ford (EDGE), Justin Houston (EDGE), Eric Berry (S), Mitch Morse (C), Steven Nelson (CB), Demetrius Harris (TE), Chris Conley (WR), Kareem Hunt (RB).
Additions: Steve Spagnuolo (DC), Carlos Hyde (RB), Tyrann Mathieu (S), Damien Wilson (LB), Alex Okafor (EDGE), Bashaud Breeland (CB).
Cap Space: $22,471,859
Draft Picks: 1 (29), 2 (61, 63), 3 (92), 5 (167), 6 (201, 214), 7 (216).
The Chiefs are switching to 4-3 to put more bodies on the inside and help out their league worst defense is the only guess I got. They let both of their edge rushers disappear. Spagnuolo is the defensive coordinator. They paid Mathieu a ton to be mediocre and not make anyone else better. Patrick Mahomes needs to be even more ridiculous this season than he was last season.
3.) Chicago Bears—Record: 12-4. Point Differential: +138 (4). DVOA: 19.0% (5). Previously 5th.
Departures: Vic Fangio (DC), Dion Sims (TE), Cody Parkey (K), Sam Acho (EDGE), Adrian Amos (S), Bryce Callahan (CB), Josh Bellamy (WR), Eric Kush (OG), Kevin White (WR), Daniel Brown (TE), Brian Witzmann (OG).
Additions: Chuck Pagano (DC), Bustker Skrine (CB), Mike Davis (RB), Cordarrelle Patterson (WR), Ted Larsen (OG/OC), HaHa Clinton-Dix (S), Marvin Hall (WR), Chris Blewitt (K).
Cap Space: $17,077,023
Draft Picks: 3 (87), 4 (126), 5 (162), 7 (222, 238).
Defensive performance can vary wildly year to year. The Bears need their all-time great defense to remain a top five defense, and for Mitch Trubisky to sit in the sunlight and continue to grow. I think both these things can happen.
2.) New Orleans Saints—Record: 13-3. Point Differential: +151 (1). DVOA: 20.7% (4). Previously 1st.
Departures: Kurt Coleman (S), Daniel Lasco (RB), Max Unger (C), Alex Okafor (EDGE), Mark Ingram (RB), Tommylee Lewis (WR).
Additions: Latavius Murray (RB), Malcom Brown (DT), Mario Edwards (DE), Nick Easton (C), Jared Cook (TE), Marcus Sherels (CB).
Cap Space: $20,954,568
Draft Picks: 2 (62), 5 (168), 6 (177, 202), 7 (231, 244).
Drew Brees lost all ability to throw the ball downfield to end last season. It crushed the Saints’ playoff run. Although the no-call was horrendous and was the main reason the Saints lost the NFC title game, New Orleans still blew it. Brees going 1/5 on downfield passes is a big reason for that. Hopefully for New Orleans he was just tired and he needed a summer to rest, and they’re aware of this and can better manage his load this season so he’s strong and tough for the playoffs.
I have no idea why their run defense was so good last year. Add this to the list of things I want to write about but will never have the time to write about.
1.) New England Patriots—Record: 11-5. Point Differential: +111 (5). DVOA: 14.2% (7). Previously 6th.
Departures: Dwayne Allen (TE), Rob Gronkowski (TE), Adrian Clayborn (DE), Trey Flowers (DE), Trent Brown (OT), Malcom Brown (DT), Cordarrelle Patterson (WR), LaAdrian Waddle (OT).
Additions: Michael Bennett (DT), Brandon Bolden (RB), Mike Pennel (DT), Matt LaCosse (TE), Maurice Harris (WR), Terrance Brooks (S), Bruce Ellington (WR).
Cap Space: $17,071,111
Draft Picks: 1 (32), 2 (56, 64), 3 (73, 91, 101), 4 (134), 6 (205), 7 (239, 243, 246, 252).
This has been the most New England offseason. Add six veterans, no one has heard of four of them, and one star player to replace someone who just got paid. They can still add veterans with their $17 million, and they have almost have five top 100 picks. Everyone needs to send a Christmas Card to Nashville because Adam Humphries didn’t end up here.
The AFC East is going to be bad again. Tom Brady is going to hang out all regular season, they’ll get a first round bye anyways, then Brady will turn the lights on in the postseason. One day this will all have to end. Why can’t that be today?