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Sports gambling in the USA is pseudo-legal. You can find ways to do it online (ssssshhhhhhh!). Various states are starting to allow it to create easy tax revenue. You are always a flight away from enjoying the thrill of losing everything. I’m sure there’s a guy in an alley somewhere who will take your money.
NFL lines and odds are more than just a baseline to create degenerate the movement of money. They are also a good indicator of median outcome. Projection systems will use Las Vegas lines to come up with win probabilities. 538’s ELO system does exactly that. With the 2020 NFL season set to begin next week, here are what the odds and projection systems say the Texans entering next week’s game and their outlook for the entire season.
- Football Outsiders has the Texans with a mean win projection of 7.5 wins (T-22), their odds to make the NFL Playoffs at 36.7%, and their Super Bowl odds are 3.3%. Their projected DVOA rating is -3.3% (23rd), offensive DVOA is -0.6% (20th), defensive DVOA is 4.0% (27th), and special teams DVOA is 1.3% (5th).
- ESPN published the following season odds for the 2020 season. They have the Texans listed as following:
Houston Texans (55-1; opened 50-1)
Odds to win AFC: 25-1
Division: +340
Over/under: 7.5
Odds to make playoffs: Yes +140, No -160
- Oddschecker had the following odds for the Texans’ regular season and for next week’s Texans-Chiefs game:
To win opener against Kansas City Chiefs +375
To win the AFC South +335 (3rd)
To win the AFC +3000 (11th)
To win Super Bowl LV +6500 (23rd)
Deshaun Watson to win MVP +2500 (7th)
Deshaun Watson to throw the most passing yards +2500 (13th)
David Johnson to record the most rushing yards +3300 (11th)
- Fanduel had the following odds for next week’s game, plus the Texans and Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds:
Moneyline: HOU: (+320) | KC: (-420)
Spread: HOU: +9.5 (-110) | KC: -9.5 (-110)
Total: 54 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Odds to Win AFC Championship: HOU: (+2400) | KC: (+300)
Odds to Win Super Bowl LV: HOU: (+4600) | KC: (+650)
All of this combined paints a mediocre to below average picture for the Texans. The preseason sentiment is the Texans have a MVP caliber quarterback in Deshaun Watson, but the rest of the team is dragging him down somewhat. That falls in line with everything else that’s been written about the team entering this season.