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The NFL season morphs from invisible to tangible once the season previews kick and NFL training camps arrive at the end of the month. All of that wanting comes to an end. You finally get what you desire: Professional football.
One of these hallmarks is the Football Outsiders Almanac, which previews each team entering the upcoming season, providing projections and information about every skill player in the league. Football Outsiders also has a projection system called KUBIAK, utilized for fantasy football purposes to try and buck the numbers spat out by Yahoo, ESPN, or however it is you draft. The Almanac will be available later this month. The KUBIAK projection system is out now. If you love the game and need background to get ready for the season, both are a must have and are extremely affordable.
Now that the background is over, let’s turn to what we are here for—to go through the KUBIAK projections for the Houston Texans to get a baseline of what they will accomplish this season. First, it’s the quarterbacks. Football Outsiders didn’t include Deshaun Watson in their projections, but they included Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills.
2021 Houston Texans Quarterback Projections
| Player | Games Started | Completions | Pass Attempts | Cmp% | Passing Yards | Passing Touchdowns | Interceptions | Sacks | Net Yards/Pass | Pass DVOA | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Rush Touchdowns | Rush DVOA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Games Started | Completions | Pass Attempts | Cmp% | Passing Yards | Passing Touchdowns | Interceptions | Sacks | Net Yards/Pass | Pass DVOA | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Rush Touchdowns | Rush DVOA |
| Tyrod Taylor | 12.4 | 242 | 406 | 59.6% | 2815 | 13.8 | 6.3 | 26.1 | 6.2 | -12.60% | 64 | 351 | 3 | -1.30% |
| Davis Mills | 4.6 | 89 | 151 | 58.8% | 1018 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 9.2 | 6 | -20.40% | 12 | 56 | 0.7 | -1.90% |
There isn’t much of a difference between Taylor as a passer compared to Mills, considering the age gap, the amount of experience he has, and the fact that Houston is going to be bad to really warrant Taylor playing over Mills. The model has Taylor starting almost 13 games, with Mills taking over for the other four. It’s also interesting the small number of rushing attempts Taylor is predicted to have. It’s expected that Houston will utilize a Baltimore Lite sort of gap read scheme with Taylor getting more play as a runner. Yet Taylor is 32 years old and was an ineffective runner in his one game against the Bengals last year. In any event, both Houston quarterbacks are projected to have terrible seasons.
This is what the computers have to say. Please enter your projections for Taylor and Mills utilizing the following format: Passing: Completions/Attempts (CMP %)/Passing Yards/Passing Touchdowns/Sacks/Interceptions/Net Yards An Attempt. Rushing: Rush Attempts/Rush Yards/Rushing Touchdowns.