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2021 Houston Texans Projections: The Wide Receivers

What the computers have to say about how the Texans running backs will fare this season.

Tennessee Titans v Houston Texans Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

The 2020 Houston Texans had their best passing offense since those hot weeks of Deshaun Watson’s rookie year, where Bill O’Brien simplified the offense by using jet sweep motion and play action to open up the deep passing game. Houston had a top ten passing offense in 2020, despite having the league’s most inefficient rushing attack, no DeAndre Hopkins, a Will Fuller suspension, and offensive line injuries.

This season Houston is going to be without their star quarterback, and a new horde of wide receivers to join Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, and Randall Cobb. Houston added Donte Moncreif, Alex Ericson, Nico Collins, Chris Conley, Andre Roberts, Taywan Taylor, Damon Hazelton, and Chris Moore this offseason. Tyrod Taylor’s ey

In previous parts we looked at Football Outsiders’ KUBIAK system that projected the Texans’ quarterbacks, and running backs. You can purchase the KUBIAK projections, and the Football Outsiders Almanac once it is published here. These are the projections for Houston’s wide receivers.

2021 Houston Texans Wide Receiver Projections

Player Receptions Receiving Yards Receiving Touchdowns Receiving DVOA
Player Receptions Receiving Yards Receiving Touchdowns Receiving DVOA
Chris Conley 28 359 1.8 -14.2%
Brandin Cooks 60 807 3.9 -12.6%
Andre Roberts 2 24 0.1 -6.4%
Alex Erickson 2 26 0.1 -5.2%
Nico Collins 17 224 1.2 -13.4%
Randall Cobb 45 497 2.7 -11.8%
Donte Moncrief 2 24 0.1 -6.6%
Chris Moore 4 52 0.3 -8.7%
Isiah Coulter 4 46 0.3 -7.9%
Keke Coutee 40 480 2.5 -12.8%

Yep, the Texans passing attack is expected to be stinky. It’s no different than what you are envisioning in your head. Cooks, the Texans number one wide receiver, is expected to have a negative DVOA, a pitiful thing, but not only that, he’s projected to have a double digit negative DVOA at -12.6%. Cobb has about the same statline as last year. 40 catches and 480 yards would be a career year for Coutee, but still seems uninspiring, and would probably lead to him catching on with a new team next year. The Texans big rookie wide receiver Collins is as boom or bust as he was in college, and the only Texans free agent wide receiver projected to do anything is Chris Conley—is 28 catches for 359 yards and 2 touchdowns good? No, but at least it is something.

Please provide your own projections in the comments below with a slash line of receptions/yards/touchdowns, and which players you think will be better or worse than their projections.