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The Value of Things: Fantasy Tight End Projections

Will the Texans see improvement from their tight ends?

Tennessee Titans v Houston Texans Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Fantasy football is one of the biggest businesses in sports specifically and in general. All fantasy players love to dabble in fantasy projections and we have done that here with quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers already. While tight ends might not be a huge position in fantasy football, the Texans hope they have found a keeper in Brevin Jordan.

The name of the game for rebuilding teams in any sport is to find cornerstone players they can build around. Jordan may not end up being a Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Kyle Pitts but he could end up being one of the better ones in the business. If that is the case then the Texans can scratch off tight end as one of their primary targets in the 2023 and 2024 drafts.

Of course, teams need more than one tight end, and we will look at three for the Texans and then three for each team in the AFC South. We will look at their projections according to ESPN, Fantasypros, and Yahoo. There are obviously more than just three sources out there, but if we focus on just a few we can begin to get a good cross-section of what the fantasy prognosticators think.

Before we do that, we should take a look at what the top three tight ends did for the Texans last season. Jordan Akins left for the Giants, so his spot will be available in camp this summer. There are a few candidates that might fill his shoes. Yet, like with the other positions, the majority of the improvement will need to come from the guys that are returning.

Jordan Akins — 24 catches, 214 yards, 0 TD

Brevin Jordan — 20 catches, 178 yards, 3 TD

Pharaoh Brown — 20 catches, 171 yards, 0 TD

These numbers look anemic and they are, but not all of it is their fault. After all, Jordan didn’t even play until the second half of the season. Brown looked like an all-pro in training camp, but for some reason couldn’t make it translate on Sundays. That could be because of them or it could have been a function of a bad offense. Pep Hamilton might hold the key to unlocking their collective potential. The three fantasy sources seem to agree on their predictions for Jordan.

Brevin Jordan — 45/470/3 (ESPN), 41/398/3 (Fantasypros), 45/465/4 (Yahoo)

Pharaoh Brown — 21/200/1, 24/210/1, 24/192/2

Antony Auclair — 8/77/1, 7/67/0. ———

Yahoo only included numbers for two guys, so we can’t really take their whole team forecast at face value, but they seem to be in line for the top two guys. Fantasypros also forecasted for Paul Quessenberry to catch 37 balls for over 300 yards. He didn’t register with ESPN or Yahoo. Go figure. Either way, the experts seem to like Jordan. Naturally, we want to see how he compares with the other tight ends in the AFC South.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

Mo-Allie Cox — 34/436/4, 34/425/3, 28/314/3

Kylon Granson — 22/230/2, 16/163/1, 26/249/3

Julani Woods — 13/132/1, 22/229/2, 22/236/2

Jacksonville Jaguars

Evan Engram — 50/571/3, 50/527/4, 42/460/2O

Dan Arnold — 35/411/2, 28/330/2, 32/330/2

Chris Manhertz— 7/82/1, 7/70/1, ———

Tennessee Titans

Austin Hooper — 50/493/4, 56/525/5, 48/478/4

Geoff Swain — 23/197/2, 26/221/2, 24/181/2

Chigozeim Okonkwo — 5/56/0, 8/80/1. ———

Austin Hooper and Evan Engram seem to have stronger projections than Jordan, but otherwise there isn’t a better tight end in the division. If that is the case then it will be a least one positive development in the 2022 season. The Jaguars and Titans appear to have stronger overall units, but the projections are not overwhelmingly better for the other teams in the division.

Final Thoughts

If we are to believe the projections then the Texans are more or less solid at their first two tight end spots. At least, that is true on the receiving end of the equation. They are on the lookout for a third tight end. As far as priorities go, that has to be pretty low. When they finally have money to spend this next offseason they can probably get that in free agency without trying too hard. Having a primary target in Jordan is definite progress we can feel good about.