Value of Things: Way Too Early Texans Projections— Wide Receivers

The keen minds and nerdy mathematicians in Vegas have pegged the Houston Texans to finish somewhere between 5.5 and 6.5 wins. If we split the difference that would be a 6-11 record. Naturally, many Texans fans are feeling more bullish on their Texans than the gambling experts. Fantasy experts and gambling experts are not exactly the same, but their is a ton of overlap there.

Those six wins are based on expectations for a number of individual players. In order to prove the talking heads and bean counters wrong we have to challenge them at individual positions and individual players. Who are they underestimating? The wide receiver group definitely has a rough reputation. No one is expecting much.

It should be noted that a lot more goes into a passing attack than just wide receivers. We will look at the tight ends in another article. We have already looked at running back receiving in a previous article. So, when evaluating the whole passing game it all gets baked in. Yet, how effective will this group be in comparison with last year’s group?

2022 Top Five Wide Receivers

Brandin Cooks— 57 catches, 699 yards, three TD

Chris Moore— 48 catches, 548 yards, two TD

Nico Collins— 37 catches, 481 yards, two TD

Phillip Dorsett— 20 catches, 257 yards, two TD

Amari Rodgers— 12 catches, 154 yards, two TD

Total: 174 catches, 2,139 yards, 9 TD

Nico Collins is the only guy here that definitely has a spot this coming season. Obviously, the Texans are rebuilding and they want to upgrade all across the board. Were these guys really that bad? That is a difficult question to answer in simplistic terms. We know Cooks might be better than any receiver they have this year, but he also was sometimes a problem in the locker room. We also know that a whole lot more goes into the passing game than just the receivers.

2023 Fantasy Projections

CBS Sports Line

Nico Collins— 52 catches, 725 yards, four TD

Robert Woods— 52 catches, 489 yards, three TD

Total— 104 catches, 1,214 yards, seven TD

ESPN

Nico Collins— 50 catches, 692 yards, four TD,

Robert Woods— 55 catches, 619 yards, two TD,

John Metchie— 44 catches, 551 yards, three TD,

Tank Dell— 27 catches, 328 yards, two TD,

Noah Brown— 6 catches, 73 yards, zero TD,

Total— 182 catches, 2,263 yards, 11 TD

Yahoo

Nico Collins— 52 catches, 644 yards, three TD

Robert Woods— 56 catches, 596 yards, three TD

John Metchie— 47 catches, 558 yards, four TD

Tank Dell— 51 catches, 528 yards, two TD

Noah Brown— 34 catches, 397 yards, three TD

Total— 240 catches, 2,723 yards, 15 TD

Yahoo is obviously a little more bullish on the Texans than the other sources, but this is also a bit deceiving. They go deeper into the wide receiver pool than the other sources. The fact is that the Texans do not have a single receiver that should be anywhere in the neighborhood of a high fantasy draft pick. It could work if C.J. Stroud is able to successfully spread the ball around. Yet, looking at these numbers individually shows you where the weak spots of this team still are.

Composite Projections

Nico Collins— 51 catches, 687 yards, four TD

Robert Woods— 54 catches, 568 yards, three TD

John Metchie— 46 catches, 555 yards, four TD

Tank Dell— 39 catches, 428 yards, two TD

Noah Brown— 20 catches, 235 yards, two TD

Total— 190 catches, 2,473 yards, 15 TD

These numbers are all entirely reasonable and underwhelming all at the same time. However, we have to remember that we haven’t counted the contributions of tight ends or running backs in the passing game. If we add in those two then we will see how the passing game is likely to evolve in 2023. We also see a tremendous room for growth moving beyond 2023.

Ultimately, for this team to overachieve, someone has to drastically outperform these projections. It could be any of the first four guys. It could also be none of them. The uncertainty around the passing game is the biggest wild card of the upcoming season. If we set the betting line at 200 receptions and 2500 yards receiving it will be tough to pick the over. After all, that would be a huge upgrade over last season.