Value of Things: Way too Early Texans Projections— Quarterbacks

Fantasy football is a multi-billion dollar industry these days. Even people that aren’t necessarily hardcore NFL fans play with multiple teams a season. Of course, this is not a fantasy football site. I am the last person that should be giving advice on that front. However, sometimes looking at what the fantasy experts are predicting for your Houston Texans can give us a glimpse of what is possibly to come.

It’s a data point at the end of the day. Las Vegas and other gambling centers seem to have a consensus on where they think the Texans are going. They have all pegged the Texans at between 5.5 and 6.5 wins. So, if we go the midpoint there we would surmise that most experts have the Texans going 6-11. In order to verify that or dispute that it would be wise to go position by position to see if these projections make sense or if we think they are overestimating or underestimating the Texans.

A part of this will involve looking at where the different sources project C.J. Stroud specifically. Fans will have a lot invested emotionally and sometimes financially in his success or failure. However, perhaps just as important will be the performance of all the quarterbacks put together. Before we get there though we need to take a look at what the quarterback room accomplished last season.

2022 Quarterbacks

Officially, the Texans had three different players throwing passes last season. The numbers are merely meant as a reference point. The team won three games last year with one tie. When we tally it all up we are looking at what amounts to a three or four win team and the production they were able to get. Whether it was lack of talent, bad quarterback play, or bad coaching is really a moot point. These numbers are what they are. We should look at them as only a reference point for how much the team needs to improve.

Davis Mills: 292/479, 61.0%, 3,118 yards, 17 TD, 15 INT, 108 RuYds, 2 RuTD

Kyle Allen: 46/78, 59.0%, 416 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT, 13 RuYds, 0 RuTD

Jeff Driskel: 14/20, 70.0%, 108 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 75 RuYds, 0 RuTD

Total: 352/577, 61.0%, 3,642 yards, 20 TD, 19 INT, 196 RuYds, 2 RuTD

Like with every other position, these numbers are meaningless on their own. They need a frame of reference. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out they simply weren’t good enough. After all, why would they have drafted Stroud in the first place? The first objective is overall improvement. From there, we can see how high this team can go in terms of quarterback production.

2023 Projections

CBS Sports Line

C.J. Stroud: 341/549, 62.1%, 3,453 yards, 21 TD, 18 INT, 109 RuYds, 1 RuTD

Davis Mills: 14/22, 63.6%, 138 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 18 RuYds, 0 RuTD

Total: 355/571, 62.2%, 3,591 yards, 22 TD, 19 INT, 127 RuYds, 1 RuTD

ESPN

C.J. Stroud: 312/511, 61.1%, 3,346 yards, 17 TD, 14 INT, 128 RuYds, 1 RuTD

Davis Mills: 43/66, 65.2%, 457 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 21 RuYds, 0 RuTD

Total: 355/577, 61.5%, 3,803 yards, 19 TD, 16 INT, 149 RuYds, 1 RuTD

Yahoo

*C.J. Stroud: 253/410, 61.7%, 2,632 yards, 15 TD, 12 INT, 92 RuYds, 1 RuTD

Davis Mills: 38/59. 64.4%, 678 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT, 25 RuYds, 1 RuTD

Case Keenum: 37/60. 61.7%, 421 yards. 2 TD, 2 INT, 30 RuYds, 0 RuTD

Total: 328/529, 62.0%, 3,731 yards, 21 TD, 17 INT, 147 RuYds, 2 RuTD

Yahoo does not have any projections for rookies at this point. So, I simply took his per game averages with CBS and ESPN and plugged them into the number of starts Yahoo seems to project him getting. Given that Mills and Keenum’s numbers are coming through five combined starts then we took the remaining 12 games and gave them to Stroud. It’s crude but it will work for now.

Composite Projections

C.J. Stroud: 302/490, 61.6%, 3,144 yards, 18 TD, 15 INT, 110 RuYds, 1 RuTD

Davis Mills: 32/49, 65.3%, 424 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 21 RuYds, 0 RuTD

Case Keenum: 13/21, 61.9%, 140 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 10 RuYds, 0 RuTD

Total: 347/560, 62.0%, 3,708 yards, 21 TD, 18 INT, 141 RYDS, 1 RuTD

Obviously, I had to do some crude math here to make the projections make sense. However, the key here are the overall numbers. In the grand scheme of things we see a slight improvement, but nothing all that earth-shattering, You have roughly the same number of yards with one more touchdown pass and one fewer interceptions.

Over/Under

Statistics are a lot like onions. There are a number of different layers with different meanings and different interpretations. The totals in terms of passing yards and rushing yards are one thing. The efficiency with which they come is something else. We expect more rushing yards and we are projecting fewer passing attempts, so it might actually be better than what we might think. Still, I think people are underestimating Stroud and his running ability in particular. I would not expect too much better than what we are seeing here, but I would still expect more dynamic rushing totals.