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Week 13 AFC Playoff Picture

Here’s how the AFC is looking as we embark onwards into Week 13.

NFL: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Texans are coming off their eighth(!) straight win after beginning the season 0-3. That’s something that has never been done before, and something that should never be done ever again.

Houston tripped down the stairs to start the game against the Titans last Monday night, falling down 0-10, and then proceeded to pick up 281 rushing yards while Marcus Mariota completed a bunch of passes short of the first down marker. Also last weekend, the Steelers lost to the Broncos, the Patriots beat the Jets, the Chiefs were on their bye, the Ravens beat the Raiders, the Colts beat the Dolphins, the Bengals lost to the Browns, and the Chargers beat the Cardinals.

If the playoffs started today, the Chiefs (9-2) and Patriots (8-3) would have the first round bye and have the #1 and #2 seeds in the AFC. The Texans (8-3) and Steelers (7-3-1) would have the #3 and #4 seeds. The two wild card teams would be the Chargers (8-3) and Ravens (6-5), with the Chargers playing the Steelers and the Texans hosting the Ravens. Behind the Ravens in wild card contention are the Colts (6-5), Dolphins (5-6), Bengals (5-6), Broncos (5-6), Titans (5-6), and Browns (4-6-1).

This weekend, Kansas City plays at Oakland, New England plays Minnesota, Houston plays Cleveland, Pittsburgh plays Los Angeles (C), and Baltimore plays at Atlanta.

According to Football Outsiders, the Texans’ mean wins total is 11.1. They have a probability of 6.9% for the #1 seed in the AFC, a probability of 24.4% for the #2 seed, a probability of 34.9% for the #3 seed, a probability of 3.8% for the #5 seed, and a probability of 7.5% for the #6 seed. Their probability to win the division, get a first round bye, and make the playoffs is up to 84.7%, 31.4%, and 96.0%, respectively.

After beating the Titans, a playoff berth for the Texans now looks like a done deal. The question now will be where Houston finishes the season.


What Seed Will Houston Have In The 2018 AFC Playoffs?

This poll is closed

  • 5%
    (47 votes)
  • 31%
    (265 votes)
  • 27%
    (227 votes)
  • 22%
    (191 votes)
  • 7%
    (65 votes)
  • 2%
    (24 votes)
  • 2%
    They’ll Miss The Playoffs.
    (20 votes)
839 votes total Vote Now